Commodities | May 05 2006
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Citigroup’s Asian oil specialist Thomas Hilboldt believes the market could well see another round of oil price forecast increases by brokerages and equity researchers over the coming few weeks.
One of the indicators for such an event is the fact that the spot price for West Texan Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is again near US$75/bbl while first half to date WTI prices are averaging circa US$65.2/bbl and further climbing every day.
The NYMEX futures curve is currently pricing in US$72.5 for 2006 and US$76.4 for 2007, Hilboldt points out. Both figures are well above Citigroup’s first half 2006 forecast of an average oil price of US$61.5/bbl. For the full year the broker’s estimate stands at US$60. The current forecast for 2007 is US$53.5.
Hilboldt believes market consensus forecasts are currently near US$63.2 for 2006 and US$57.0 for 2007.