Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday June 29 to Friday July 3, 2026
Total Upgrades: 19
Total Downgrades: 19
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.78%; Hold 27.79%; Sell 6.43%
The week ending Friday, July 3, 2026 proved an unusually busy one for the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena.
We registered no fewer than 19 upgrades and 19 downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks.
The combined 38 changes over the five days into the end of FY26 and the start of a fresh financial year were underpinned by sectoral updates on, predominantly, the mining and energy sectors.
Mining companies thus featured prominently in the week's rankings, mostly on the positive side. Twelve of the 19 upgrades featured a mining company.
Hub24, Mirvac and Stockland stand out in a list that also features GrainCorp, Karoon Energy and Mitchell Services.
The week's downgrades are less one-sided, but the mining sector remains prominently present through eight of the week's downgrades. Only three downgrades shifted to Sell, with Emerald Resources, Healius and Insurance Australia Group the recipients.
With mining in focus, it should not surprise that the top of the week's rankings for positive amendments to price targets shows some meaty increases for the likes of Wildcat Resources, Nickel Industries and Deterra Royalties.
In between, we also find Healius in second place, followed further down the week's rankings by Redox, Stockland and AMP. By then, the numbers involved have become quite small when compared with the 13%-15% increases at the top.
Healius' forecasts have been negatively impacted by a sector update by Ord Minnett. Redox has been downgraded by Morgan Stanley following a strong share price rally.
Stockland and Mirvac have been upgraded by Citi in anticipation of next year's RBA rate cuts. Citi is far from the only one with such a prediction. AMP is enjoying some benefits from mark-to-market updates for financial services providers.
The numbers are noticeably larger on the negative side, where Turaco Gold's target took the largest hit (-31%), followed by Objective Corp, Collins Foods and Judo Capital.
Mining sector analysts have been tempering their forecasts for gold bullion and gold miners. The stocks ranked second to fourth all updated the market with negative outcomes.
The remainder of the week's negative adjustments is the exclusive domain of the mining sector.
The week's positive adjustments to earnings forecasts are equally a largely mining-sector affair, though Neuren Pharmaceuticals sits on top, with Collins Foods and Jumbo Interactive the other two non-mining representatives.
Superloop and Pro Medicus are the week's exceptions among negative amendments to forecasts. The rest of the week's top-ten overview is populated by mining companies and financials (Navigator Global Investments, Netwealth Group).
Superloop's trading update has triggered some fine-tuning among analysts. The same applies to Pro Medicus, despite this company not issuing a trading update.
The latter's share price has risen to nearly $210 from circa $120 in May.
While total Buy and Neutral/Hold ratings are more or less equally balanced at Citi and UBS, Morgan Stanley remains the only one of the seven monitored daily that carries more Neutral/Holds than Buy ratings, as well as the most Sell-equivalent ratings of the seven.
The total percentages remain heavily skewed towards Buy-equivalent ratings, currently at 65.78%, versus 27.79% in Neutral/Holds, while Sell ratings account for only 6.43% of total ratings.
These numbers should be interpreted as representing an extremely polarised market in which stocks that don't fit in with the dominant narratives of the day find no buyers, irrespective of their price or valuation.
One telling statistic, maybe, is that the relative underperformance by active fund managers against US indices has reportedly never been as high as in 2026.
The experience in Australia would be quite similar, judging from anecdotal signals and observations.
Upgrade
ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker's 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Alcoa is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target slipping to $100 from $107.
CHALICE MINING LIMITED ((CHN)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker's 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Chalice Mining is upgraded to Hold from Sell with the target steady at $1.20.
CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED ((CTM)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker's 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Centaurus Metals is upgraded to Buy from Hold with the target steady at $0.60.
CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker's 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Core Lithium is upgraded to Buy from Hold with the target steady at $0.30.
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