Weekly Reports | Jul 06 2026
This story features ALCOA CORPORATION, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday June 29 to Friday July 3, 2026
Total Upgrades: 19
Total Downgrades: 19
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.78%; Hold 27.79%; Sell 6.43%
The week ending Friday, July 3, 2026 proved an unusually busy one for the seven stockbrokers monitored daily by FNArena.
We registered no fewer than 19 upgrades and 19 downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks.
The combined 38 changes over the five days into the end of FY26 and the start of a fresh financial year were underpinned by sectoral updates on, predominantly, the mining and energy sectors.
Mining companies thus featured prominently in the week’s rankings, mostly on the positive side. Twelve of the 19 upgrades featured a mining company.
Hub24, Mirvac and Stockland stand out in a list that also features GrainCorp, Karoon Energy and Mitchell Services.
The week’s downgrades are less one-sided, but the mining sector remains prominently present through eight of the week’s downgrades. Only three downgrades shifted to Sell, with Emerald Resources, Healius and Insurance Australia Group the recipients.
With mining in focus, it should not surprise that the top of the week’s rankings for positive amendments to price targets shows some meaty increases for the likes of Wildcat Resources, Nickel Industries and Deterra Royalties.
In between, we also find Healius in second place, followed further down the week’s rankings by Redox, Stockland and AMP. By then, the numbers involved have become quite small when compared with the 13%-15% increases at the top.
Healius’ forecasts have been negatively impacted by a sector update by Ord Minnett. Redox has been downgraded by Morgan Stanley following a strong share price rally.
Stockland and Mirvac have been upgraded by Citi in anticipation of next year’s RBA rate cuts. Citi is far from the only one with such a prediction. AMP is enjoying some benefits from mark-to-market updates for financial services providers.
The numbers are noticeably larger on the negative side, where Turaco Gold’s target took the largest hit (-31%), followed by Objective Corp, Collins Foods and Judo Capital.
Mining sector analysts have been tempering their forecasts for gold bullion and gold miners. The stocks ranked second to fourth all updated the market with negative outcomes.
The remainder of the week’s negative adjustments is the exclusive domain of the mining sector.
The week’s positive adjustments to earnings forecasts are equally a largely mining-sector affair, though Neuren Pharmaceuticals sits on top, with Collins Foods and Jumbo Interactive the other two non-mining representatives.
Superloop and Pro Medicus are the week’s exceptions among negative amendments to forecasts. The rest of the week’s top-ten overview is populated by mining companies and financials (Navigator Global Investments, Netwealth Group).
Superloop’s trading update has triggered some fine-tuning among analysts. The same applies to Pro Medicus, despite this company not issuing a trading update.
The latter’s share price has risen to nearly $210 from circa $120 in May.
While total Buy and Neutral/Hold ratings are more or less equally balanced at Citi and UBS, Morgan Stanley remains the only one of the seven monitored daily that carries more Neutral/Holds than Buy ratings, as well as the most Sell-equivalent ratings of the seven.
The total percentages remain heavily skewed towards Buy-equivalent ratings, currently at 65.78%, versus 27.79% in Neutral/Holds, while Sell ratings account for only 6.43% of total ratings.
These numbers should be interpreted as representing an extremely polarised market in which stocks that don’t fit in with the dominant narratives of the day find no buyers, irrespective of their price or valuation.
One telling statistic, maybe, is that the relative underperformance by active fund managers against US indices has reportedly never been as high as in 2026.
The experience in Australia would be quite similar, judging from anecdotal signals and observations.
Upgrade
ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Alcoa is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target slipping to $100 from $107.
CHALICE MINING LIMITED ((CHN)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Chalice Mining is upgraded to Hold from Sell with the target steady at $1.20.
CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED ((CTM)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Centaurus Metals is upgraded to Buy from Hold with the target steady at $0.60.
CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Core Lithium is upgraded to Buy from Hold with the target steady at $0.30.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Against a backdrop of rising US bond yields, a stronger US dollar and profit taking, Morgans points out the gold price has fallen around -26% from its high in January.
After one of the “steepest” rallies in recent history, the current drawdown is noted by the analyst as largely in line with previous gold bull markets.
The broker continues to remain positive on gold and gold miners and considers the retracement in share prices as an opportunity. Morgans’ near-term gold price forecast has been lowered to reflect the current spot price around US$4,000/oz.
Evolution Mining is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with a new $15 target price, from $16, previously. In large caps, Evolution is the most preferred stock.
See also EVN downgrade.
FIREFLY METALS LIMITED ((FFM)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
FireFly Metals’ rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten while the target is raised to $2.00 from $1.90.
GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/1/0
GrainCorp has lost -23% of its value since the El Nino indication was issued by the Bureau of Meteorology in April.
Bell Potter points out, from an historical perspective, the downward movement in the share price is the largest it has experienced in an El Nino watch phase and at this stage trails only the 2002-03 event in terms of total movement.
The broker adds that, traditionally, most of the damage to the share price is done in the development of the event rather than during the event itself.
While earnings are likely to remain under pressure the broker believes accumulating the stock over the course of a drier bias is appropriate and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is raised to $5.90 from $5.20.
HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED ((HAS)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Hastings Technology Metals is upgraded to Hold from Sell with the target steady at $0.35.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 6/1/0
Macquarie marks-to-market the wealth and asset managers post robust equity market performances across the June quarter, albeit Australia lagged global peers with the US up 14.9% and Europe, up 10%.
Forecast FY26 FUA for Hub24 is lifted by 3.9% which results in higher EPS forecasts, up 8.5% for FY26 and 5.9% for FY27.
The platform is trading at PEG of 2.2x equating to around a -20% discount to its 5-year average.
The analyst upgrades the stock to Outperform from a higher target price of $96.25 from $94.50, previously. Netwealth Group ((NWL)) is preferred over Hub24.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/1
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
In lithium, IGO Ltd is a top pick and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target steady at $9.
KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Morgans upgrades Karoon Energy to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $1.77, up from $1.67, post the share price falling around -36%.
The broker believes the share price should not be trading around a 52-week low, pointing to the positive news from Brazil with the successful restart of the SPS-92, Bauna’s largest well in terms of output.
This well has stabilised production around 8,600bopd post the installation of a new electrical submersible pump.
Total Bauna production is back to around 20,500 bopd. The analyst notes the restart of PRA-2, which should contribute an additional 1,000 to 2,000 bopd.
On the negative side, capex guidance has been raised to US$178m–US$202m from US$150m–US$183m.
MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Citi has upgraded Mirvac Group to Buy from Neutral with a higher target price of $2 from $1.84.
The broker points to a sell-off in REITs of -23% to -33% since October 2025 which infers a challenging housing cycle has been priced in by 75 bps rate hikes with one more likely. There has also been a once-in-a-generation change in tax treatment of real estate.
Auction clearance rates have also fallen by -15% to -20% and fears around construction cost rises are likely to be overstated with actual cost rises more “benign”, the analyst states.
The budget changes are a positive tailwind structurally for new housing developers as capital moves from existing dwellings to new dwellings.
Citi prefers Stockland Group ((SGP)) over Mirvac Group but feels the PERs are trading at trough through the cycle multiples, aligned with previous downturns in the housing market. Demand is expected to pick up in 2027.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
In lithium, Mineral Resources is a top pick and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target lowered to $72 from $80.
MEDALLION METAL LIMITED ((MM8)) Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Medallion Metals has progressed to a producer from developer, advancing the Ravensthorpe gold project as the Cosmic Boy concentrator nears commissioning.
This has confirmed that refurbishment capital expenditure is broadly in line with the definitive feasibility study. The company is now assessing the potential for processing third-party and stockpiled material.
Morgans assesses the Forrestania gold project is emerging as one of the most advanced near-term gold/copper developments on ASX. It benefits from significant existing infrastructure and enables the company to pursue a comparatively low capital pathway to production.
Modelling is updated to incorporate a maiden Lounge Lizard underground mining inventory. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy and the target is raised to $0.99 from $0.87. Coverage is transferred to Flynn Tyson.
MITCHELL SERVICES LIMITED ((MSV)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Ahead of the August results, Morgans revises forecasts for Mitchell Services to reflect a strong operating performance throughout the year.
EBITDA estimates for FY26 are increased by around 2% with greater increases for FY27 and beyond, supported by higher average operating rig assumptions.
With excess rig capacity available to deploy and a first mover advantage in Loop Decarbonisation, the broker envisages ongoing options for earnings growth.
Rating is upgraded to Speculative Buy from Accumulate and the target is lifted to $0.60 from $0.55.
NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
New Hope is upgraded to Hold from Lighten with the target raised to $5.00 from $4.90.
PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/2/0
Paladin Energy announced the discovery of a new high-grade U308 area at the Patterson Lake South (PLS) project.
Ord Minnett points out the discovery is around 3.5 km south of the Triple R deposit with initial drilling pointing to a high-grade system of around 1%–2% U308.
The broker includes the “conceptual satellite” resources of around 0.5 Mt at 1.6% U308 or around 18 mlbs into the earnings forecast model.
Paladin’s net asset value is raised by 25c per share to $3.50.
Given the recent fall in the share price, the stock is upgraded to Hold from Sell with an unchanged target of $9.50.
PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
PLS Group is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate with the target raised to $6.20 from $6.10.
STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Citi has raised its target price on Stockland to $5.10 from $4.30 and upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.
The broker points to a sell-off in REITs of -23% to -33% since October 2025 which infers a challenging housing cycle has been priced in by 75 bps rate hikes with one more likely. There has also been a once-in-a-generation change in tax treatment of real estate.
Auction clearance rates have also fallen by -15% to -20% and fears around construction cost rises are likely to be overstated with actual cost rises more “benign”, the analyst states.
The budget changes are a positive tailwind structurally for new housing developers as capital moves from existing dwellings to new dwellings.
Citi prefers Stockland Group ((SGP)) over Mirvac Group but feels the PERs are trading at trough through the cycle multiples, aligned with previous downturns in the housing market. Demand is expected to pick up in 2027.
Downgrade
AVITA MEDICAL INC ((AVH)) Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0
Morgans downgrades Avita Medical to Hold from Speculative Buy and maintains a $1.35 target. The shares have been volatile, driven by the closure of the MAC reimbursement overhang and early signs of the commercial recovery.
The broker notes the share price has rallied hard on “reasonable” volumes, closing the gap to the target and removing the margin of safety that supported the prior call.
At the current price the stock offers limited opportunity versus current expectations and there is no “fresh data” since the first quarter.
Morgans confirms the long-term thesis around RECELL adoption, Cohealyx scaling and international opportunity is unchanged.
Yet persistent shortfalls in sales and ongoing guidance downgrades as well as a high cash burn mean the capital risk is elevated.
COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/5/0
UBS suggests, strategically, Collins Foods is doing the right thing as it expands into new segments and new products as well as geographically.
The operating environment in FY27 will present challenges, the broker adds, as while like-for-like sales in Australia have started strongly, comparables will become more difficult.
Like-for-like sales in Europe are down 7.6% and UBS finds it hard to determine how much is driven by circumstances outside the company’s control such as the current heatwave and the Middle East war.
In light of the increased uncertainty, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy until becoming more comfortable around these issues. Target is reduced to $8.90 from $13.50.
Following on from Citi’s first take below, the broker downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy.
The analyst stresses Collins Foods is a “good” business with a robust balance sheet, but the QSR operator is likely to experience “multi-year” inflationary pressures in Australia.
Management is aiming to offset the rises with menu innovation, Kwench, and expansion into breakfast and late-night trials. Capex is also rising to $80m-$100m in FY27 of which $45m is targeted for Kwench.
The analyst points out much of the anticipated growth in new stores will come from Germany, where Citi harbours concerns post a sudden weakening in sales growth.
Target $10.30.
****
In an initial take, Citi notes the FY26 underlying net profit from Collins Foods was ahead of expectations although the statutory net profit of $47.1m was -19% below consensus amid class action-related costs and restaurant impairments.
A disappointing German FY27 trading update could mean investors would like to see improved performance prior to additional acquisitions, the broker adds.
The KFC Australia margin fell, amid increased lower-margin delivery sales following a reduction in delivery fees.
Australian same-store sales growth for the first eight weeks of FY27 was 4%, which the broker considers a strong result given weaker consumer sentiment.
For the same period, the measure declined in Germany and the Netherlands by -7.2% and -7.8%, respectively.
Execution in Australia continues to outperform expectations and Citi has a Buy rating with a $10.30 target price.
CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/0
UBS prefers thermal/metallurgical coal stocks in the near term over iron ore although considers the fundamentals for bulks muted overall. In coal, a more supportive outlook for prices results in modest earnings upgrades for Coronado Global Resources.
Higher risk-free rates weigh slightly on valuation, which results in a downgrade to Neutral from Buy and the lowering of the target to $0.21 from $0.38.
DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/4/0
Morgan Stanley has liked Data#3 for some time given its competitive position, history of execution and solid growth prospects. The stock is near all-time highs, trading on around 29x FY27 estimated PE.
The broker is aware of improving momentum in the second half of FY26, although assesses the run up in the share price means the risk/reward is now more balanced.
Forecasts are largely unchanged since the February result and there have been clear tailwinds in hardware pricing and customer “urgency”.
Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight and raises the target to $10.00 from $9.20. Industry View: In Line.
DEEP YELLOW LIMITED ((DYL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Deep Yellow is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate with the target steady at $2.05.
ECHOIQ LIMITED ((EIQ)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Bell Potter observes EchoIQ continues to execute on multiple fronts with new product development and securing long-term funding on favourable terms.
The broker amends earnings estimates to include the anticipated finance charge related to the PME debt facility and dilution to shares on issue from the eventual maturing of the convertible note.
The valuation is now raised to $1.75 from $1.65 following the capital raising. The share price is expected to continue being highly volatile in the short term amid modest revenue growth, high cash burn and periodic new business wins.
Recommendation is downgraded to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy.
EMERALD RESOURCES NL ((EMR)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ord Minnett reviews its commodity price forecasts for the end of the June quarter and with the resolution in the Middle East war looking increasingly likely.
Oil and gas prices reflect this outcome, having retreated to pre-war levels, although it will take some time for production to normalise.
Gold suffers the largest downgrades to the broker’s 2026-2028 estimates, down -9-15%, although the long-term price forecast is unchanged.
Emerald Resources is downgraded to Lighten from Hold with the target lowered to $5.40 from $6.20.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0
UBS asserts rising cost pressures continue to be under-appreciated by the market and forecast gold sector-wide costs will rise $110/oz in FY27, driving -5% downside to EPS on average and further margin compression.
Gold remains under pressure from rising yields, although UBS retains a constructive outlook amid an anticipated easing by the US Federal Reserve and continued buying in both the private and official sectors.
The broker downgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Buy and reduces the target to $12.60 from $14.00.
See also EVN upgrade.
HEALIUS LIMITED ((HLS)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/1
Ord Minnett has reviewed the outlook for the healthcare sector post the end of the June quarter to adjust for some currency changes which has resulted in some EPS forecast changes.
The broker downgrades Healius to Sell from Hold with a lower target price of 56c from 64c. No change to earnings forecasts.
The downgrade is based on valuation. The company is also expected to experience rising costs and especially wages which remain a potential headwind for earnings.
INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/2
Macquarie downgrades Insurance Australia Group to Underperform from Neutral, believing it could be exposed to another -$740m of outstanding Greensill claims.
Credit Suisse, acting for Greensill, is seeking to amend the causation plea from an insurance claim to that of “misleading and deceptive conduct”.
The broker does not believe the market is pricing in further downside risks related to the issue and a claim at any level could change how attractive the RACWA acquisition appears, and therefore medium-term earnings growth. Target is lowered to $7.00 from $8.50.
JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/1
UBS downgrades JB Hi-Fi to Neutral from Buy, citing a “balanced” rather than “attractive” risk reward. This follows a period of mixed performance in the share price and an underperformance since the first half result.
Estimated earnings are reduced to more fully reflect the concerns of heightened competitive activity, noted by the company in its third quarter sales update.
UBS has less confidence that the Australian business can manage the very difficult comparables, despite a record of being able to do this historically.
Going forward, the broker suggests competitive intensity from Officeworks ((WES)) could increase on a more enduring basis as that competitor seeks to improve its technology offering. Target is reduced to $83 from $85.
JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0
On the back of Judo Capital’s earnings downgrade due to higher provisions for three exposures, UBS downgrades the stock to Neutral from Buy.
The market reaction to the news is framed by the analyst as the market querying Judo’s business model.
The broker questions the underwriting/risk management of the non-bank lender and doesn’t view the through-the-cycle write-off guidance of around -50bps on GLAs (gross loans & advances) as realistic.
EPS forecasts are lowered by -11% for FY26 and -18% for FY27. Target price is downgraded to $1.05 from $2.25, a cut of circa -53%.
Notably, this is above the -40% retracement in the share post the downgrade announcement as the analyst lowers the ascribed valuation multiple.
MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED ((MND)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Monadelphous Group has been awarded $845m in new contracts and contract extensions since the 1H26 result, which Bell Potter emphasises is well above the $580m awarded in the previous corresponding period.
Contract wins include a $380m balance-of-plant construction and installation package for the Brigalow Peaking Power Plant in Queensland, a third battery energy storage system contract at Fortescue’s ((FMG)) Cloudbreak mine, maintenance contract extensions for BHP Group ((BHP)), and a sustaining capital works package for Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) Paraburdoo iron ore mine.
Higher engineering construction revenue forecasts result in increases to EPS forecasts for FY27 and FY28.
The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy. The target price falls to $32 from $37 due to a higher cost of capital applied to the valuation.
PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Following a stellar share price rally, Pro Medicus has been downgraded one notch by Morgans, to Accumulate from Buy.
The broker emphasises this is purely a call on the share price. Pro Medicus continues to be held as a core holding in its growth portfolios.
Price target has been lifted to $230 from $210. No changes were made to forecasts.
REDOX LIMITED ((RDX)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Morgan Stanley remains confident in the strong competitive position of Redox, highlighting the robust balance sheet. The stock has re-rated materially over the year to date and has traded past the prior target, re-rated to around 20x FY27 estimated PE.
The broker considers this “broadly fair” and ultimately believes the risk/reward is balanced. Target is raised to $4.00 from $3.50 and the rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry view: In-Line.
SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0
South32 will sell its aluminium business to Alcoa for US$5.6bn and transfer -US$1.2bn in liabilities. Morgans has a mixed view on the sale, noting it leaves a simpler business but also a smaller and less valuable one.
The broker expects the market will judge the deal favourably, given downside potential to aluminium prices post the Middle East conflict and because of the simplification and de-risking of the company’s portfolio.
The base case valuation has now been lowered but Morgans acknowledges there will be around US$3.8bn in net cash and potential to deploy this towards unlocking value in stronger markets.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target reduced to $4.50 from $5.00.
TURACO GOLD LIMITED ((TCG)) Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Morgans transfers coverage of Turaco Gold to Flynn Tyson and downgrades the stock to Speculative Buy from Buy with a new target price of $1.18 from $2.19.
The definitive feasibility study for Afema has been announced with a circa 200kozpa open pit gold operation with a 10-year-plus mine life. The analyst points out the maiden ore reserve of 1.91Moz which is viewed as a significant ‘de-risking’ event for the miner.
The post-tax NPV5 of US$2.1bn includes an internal rate of return of 79% and a 13-month payback at US$43,500/oz. Initial capex is US$442m and life of mine AISC US$1,508/oz.
Morgans believes the current valuation ascribed to the stock doesn’t discount the future long-term value of Afema, as well as exploration upside.
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0
UBS prefers thermal/metallurgical coal stocks in the near term over iron ore although considers the fundamentals for bulks muted overall. In coal, a more supportive outlook for prices results in modest earnings upgrades for Whitehaven Coal.
Higher risk-free rates weigh slightly on valuation which results in a downgrade to Neutral from Buy and the lowering of the target to $8.70 from $9.10.
| Total Recommendations | Recommendation Changes |
| Broker Recommendation Breakup | |
Broker Rating | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Target Price | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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Earnings Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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Technical limitations
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAI - ALCOA CORPORATION
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AVH - AVITA MEDICAL INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHN - CHALICE MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CKF - COLLINS FOODS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CRN - CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CTM - CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CXO - CORE LITHIUM LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DTL - DATA#3 LIMITED.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EIQ - ECHOIQ LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EMR - EMERALD RESOURCES NL
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN - EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FFM - FIREFLY METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GNC - GRAINCORP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HAS - HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HLS - HEALIUS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JBH - JB HI-FI LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JDO - JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KAR - KAROON ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGR - MIRVAC GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MM8 - MEDALLION METAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MND - MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MSV - MITCHELL SERVICES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHC - NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS - PLS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PME - PRO MEDICUS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RDX - REDOX LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGP - STOCKLAND
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TCG - TURACO GOLD LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED