Weekly Reports | 2:43 PM
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Boss Energy's latest update delivered a pleasant surprise. Meanwhile, structural U308 supply deficits and accelerating nuclear demand should support higher long-term prices.
- Recent US, India and Canada announcements support the bull thesis for U308 demand
- Uranium price forecasts upgraded on structural supply challenges
- TradeTech's Mid and Long-term price indicators lift in June
- Boss Energy announces improved confidence in Honeymoon
By Danielle Ecuyer
Growing demand for nuclear energy
Another week and another round of upbeat commentary from sector analysts on the outlook for uranium.
UBS forecasts U308 consumption will grow by over 50% by 2035, with demand growth weighted to the latter part of the next decade.
Demand is forecast to grow at a CAGR of more than 4% from 2025 to 2030, an acceleration from 1%-2% growth over the last decade.
Over 2030-2035, growth is expected to gain further momentum to a 5% CAGR due to increased demand from new reactors, as well as restarts and life extensions.
India and China are expected to expand to more than 115 reactors from around 70, while the US, which represents some 30% of reactor demand, has committed to boosting capacity to 400GW by 2050 from around 100GW currently.
Supply won’t be able to keep up with demand. Over the next decade, supply growth is forecast at a CAGR of more than 6%, slowing to more than 2% from 2030-2035.
UBS believes a higher incentive price is required to boost investment in new supply to address demand from the early to mid-2030s.
Risks, however, remain to supply growth.
UBS believes recent weakness across uranium equities reflects macroeconomic demand concerns and reduced exposure to AI-related trades following the Middle East conflict, rather than any deterioration in uranium market fundamentals.
The uranium market is projected to remain in deficit through 2025-29, with a widening structural supply shortfall emerging during the 2030s as demand outpaces relatively inelastic supply.
UBS highlights supportive policy developments, including a US$17.5bn US commitment to revitalise the domestic nuclear supply chain, while noting constrained mine supply and continued buying by physical uranium funds remain supportive of the long-term outlook.
The broker expects uranium prices to remain well supported over the longer term, with potential catalysts including a US Strategic Uranium Reserve and a renewed utility contracting cycle.
UBS forecasts a U308 price of US$89/lb, up from US$88/lb in 2026 to US$95/lb in 2027, with a long-term nominal price of US$113/lb (real US$100/lb).
RBC Capital has also upgraded its long-term U308 price forecast to US$110/lb. Like UBS, RBC sees structural challenges around supply while demand catalysts keep emerging, including the US Department of Energy’s US$17.5bn commitment and Canada’s plan for ten new reactors by 2040.
India’s High Commissioner announced the country would be prepared to acquire as much U308 as Cameco can produce.
RBC expects a pick-up in contracting activity over the next year as utilities look to fill the early 2030s coverage gap.
Prices up in June
Over the month of June, industry consultant TradeTech highlighted the U308 exchange price advanced to US$85.25/lb, up US$0.25/lb from May 31.
Over the month, the U308 spot price traded in a narrow band between US$84.50/lb and US$86.25/lb, with 26 transactions conducted, down from 35 spot transactions in May.
TradeTech’s monthly U308 spot price indicator has lifted 8.6% since June last year and averaged a monthly return of 1.3% in 2026.
Recent transactions and outstanding offers have the TradeTech June 30 long-term U308 price indicator at US$97/lb, up US$2/lb from May 31.
The TradeTech mid-term U308 price indicator at month’s end came in at US$88/lb, up US$1/lb from May 31.
As explained by RBC Capital, the term market has continued to move higher, with TradeTech’s May 31 long-term price indicator at US$95/lb, the highest sustained level since 2008, which has now been exceeded in June.
For RBC, the long-term price indicator is a truer reflection of where the U308 market is transacting.
TradeTech expresses a similar view, detailing how utilities agreed to purchase commitments at base levels that are trending higher, coalescing around US$97/lb.
With transactions and offers at fully fixed prices several dollars higher than US$97/lb, U308 is positioning to move into triple digits.
For the week ending July 2, the TradeTech U308 spot indicator was unchanged at US$85/lb, but down from the mid-week June 30 price by -US$0.25/lb.
The week was shortened due to the US Independence Day holiday.
Australian uranium companies in focus
RBC Capital upgraded Paladin Energy ((PDN)) to Outperform, signalling a higher degree of confidence around the Patterson Lake South project following the Atlas discovery.
This was outlined in more detail in FNArena’s most recent Uranium Weekly, see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/06/30/uranium-week-paladins-joy-lotus-in-pain/
The discovery implies life-of-mine production significantly above current estimates. The 4Q26 quarterly is expected to generate production of 1,200klb, flat on the prior quarter, with sales volumes forecast at around 1,400klb. This is expected to underpin a circa 51% quarterly rise in sales revenue to US$106m.
Management is expected to announce FY27 maiden guidance, with the RBC analyst forecasting 5.5Mlbs at US$45/lb, largely in line with consensus forecasts.
The Paladin target price rises to $13.40 from $11.
Boss Energy ((BOE)) was also in focus this week, reporting FY26 production of 1.41mlbs, in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecast, consensus and management’s revised guidance.
The June quarter result was up 77% on the March quarter, which suffered weather challenges and delays. The analyst attributes the successful commissioning and production from IX Column 5, which assisted in generating record throughput, offsetting weakening grades.
After such a challenging period for Honeymoon, the analyst, like the market, was pleased to see Boss achieve its revised guidance while also expressing greater confidence around the Honeymoon project.
Boss has now decided to release a single feasibility study rather than a scoping study followed by a feasibility study, targeted for late August, instead of September.
The study will bring forward an updated life-of-mine plan and JORC Mineral Resource estimate. Management was also more upbeat and confident around the new design and its ability to fund any additional capital expenditure requirements, Canaccord noted.
A Speculative Buy rating and $2.50 target price are retained.
Macquarie also noted an improved risk/reward outlook for Boss amid growing confidence in the technical work. The company appears set to demonstrate the value that can be achieved from its new approach, Macquarie commented, with a greater proportion of lower-grade resources being made economic.
The stock has been upgraded to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $1.75 from $1.30.
Ord Minnett liked the FY26 production result and the fact management has brought forward the revised Honeymoon feasibility study and mine plan. Boss is expected to announce its 4Q update on July 30.
The appointment of former Oil Search chief executive Peter Botten as incoming chair is also viewed positively and as strengthening the board structure.
Hold rated with a $1.40 target.
RBC Capital, prior to the FY26 production announcement, had already upgraded Boss to Sector Perform from Underperform with a higher target price of $1.30 from $1.10.
Shaw and Partners turned its attention to Atomic Eagle ((AEU)) last week, noting ongoing negotiations with the Niger Government over a potential resumption of the written-off Madaouela uranium project present significant structural option value if successfully finalised.
The core operational focus continues to target resource expansions at the Muntanga uranium asset in Zambia, where approvals for environmental assessments and resettlement plans have significantly de-risked the development pathway.
Recent exploration drilling results are seen as highly encouraging and indication for a strong possibility of doubling the current resource base to support a larger operational footprint.
A Buy/High Risk rating is retained with an unchanged $1.40 target price. The analyst expects upcoming exploration news flow and systematic resource updates to act as clear near-term investment catalysts.
Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) gave construction progress updates at its Etango U308 project in Namibia.
On-site bulk earthworks have reached 92% completion, keeping early development activities aligned with existing corporate budgets and timelines.
The funding pathway to first production in 2028 remains secured via an established strategic joint venture partnership with China National Nuclear Corporation.
Shaw and Partners concurs with UBS and RBC the macro environment for uranium is facing a persistent structural deficit, leaving the asset well positioned to benefit from a multi-year pricing upcycle.
Long-term commercial upside centres on scalable options to double operational throughput to 16Mtpa under recent project scoping extensions.
Shaw and Partners rates the stock a Buy with a $6.50 target price.
Short interests
Turning to the latest short interests on the ASX, as reported by ASIC as per July 1, Lotus Resources remains in second position on the bourse with short interest of 22.81%, unchanged on the week.
Boss Energy is in fifth position, with the largest decline over the week, down 2.28% to 11.96% — nothing like some good news!
Paladin sits in ninth position with short interest of 11.39%, down slightly from 11.43%.
Deep Yellow ((DYL)) is at 8.63%, down slightly from 8.78% in the previous week.
Bannerman has short interest of 6.72%, unchanged on the week.
For more U308 Weekly updates from FNArena, see:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/06/23/uranium-week-super-cycle-demand-for-power/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/06/16/uranium-week-bannermans-etango-in-focus/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 06/07/2026 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.16 | $0.05 | |||
| AEE | 06/07/2026 | 0.1000 | 0.00% | $0.28 | $0.10 | |||
| AEU | 06/07/2026 | 0.3900 |  – 4.82% | $0.75 | $0.22 | |||
| AGE | 06/07/2026 | 0.0500 | – 5.45% | $0.06 | $0.02 | $0.080 |  60.0% | |
| AKN | 06/07/2026 | 0.0300 | 25.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 06/07/2026 | 0.0400 | – 4.44% | $0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 06/07/2026 | 0.4500 | – 1.09% | $0.70 | $0.37 | |||
| BMN | 06/07/2026 | 3.2200 | 6.37% | $5.25 | $2.23 | $4.917 | 52.7% | |
| BOE | 06/07/2026 | 1.2700 | 33.50% | $3.92 | $1.00 | 18.0 | $1.636 | 28.8% |
| BSN | 06/07/2026 | 0.0300 | – 6.06% | $0.08 | $0.02 | |||
| C29 | 06/07/2026 | 0.0100 | -30.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 06/07/2026 | 0.3000 | 20.00% | $0.39 | $0.09 | $0.300 | ||
| CXU | 06/07/2026 | 0.0900 | -14.29% | $0.14 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 06/07/2026 | 0.2500 | 2.00% | $0.33 | $0.07 | $0.410 | 64.0% | |
| DYL | 06/07/2026 | 1.3600 | 4.30% | $2.97 | $1.30 | -66.0 | $2.202 | 61.9% |
| EL8 | 06/07/2026 | 0.2400 | 4.44% | $0.50 | $0.22 | |||
| HAR | 06/07/2026 | 0.1000 | 5.49% | $0.25 | $0.07 | |||
| I88 | 06/07/2026 | 0.1300 | 0.00% | $0.76 | $0.09 | |||
| KOB | 06/07/2026 | 0.0300 | 14.81% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 06/07/2026 | 0.5700 | -13.08% | $0.93 | $0.56 | |||
| LOT | 06/07/2026 | 0.6600 | 0.00% | $3.20 | $0.49 | $2.000 | 203.0% | |
| MEU | 06/07/2026 | 0.0800 | 3.90% | $0.19 | $0.04 | |||
| NXG | 06/07/2026 | 13.6900 | – 0.71% | $20.47 | $9.66 | -105.8 | $19.867 | 45.1% |
| ORP | 06/07/2026 | 0.0900 | – 1.11% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 06/07/2026 | 9.5400 | 6.67% | $15.10 | $6.03 | -190.1 | $13.193 | 38.3% |
| PEN | 06/07/2026 | 0.3600 | – 7.50% | $1.08 | $0.28 | |||
| SLX | 06/07/2026 | 5.1200 | 1.89% | $10.85 | $3.45 | |||
| TOE | 06/07/2026 | 0.5500 | 0.00% | $0.63 | $0.17 | |||
| WCN | 06/07/2026 | 0.0200 | 13.33% | $0.03 | $0.01 |
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