Next Week At A Glance

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By Greg Peel

Well, there's not much that can be said at this point re the US debt ceiling that hasn't already been said. We may still be waiting until Monday night for a result, if any. The best one can say is that next week the market has the potential to move either up or down in a hurry.

More immediate now is tonight's first estimate of US June quarter GDP. Similarly, were the result to be much better than or worse than current consensus of 1.8% growth then we could see a sharp move in either appropriate direction. Given the wide range of estimates surrounding consensus, this result really is up in the air.

Tonight in the US also sees the Chicago PMI and the fortnightly consumer sentiment measure.

Moving into next week, on Monday all horses are in for a treat and it's also global manufacturing PMI day, with all of Australia, China, the eurozone, UK and US reporting. It's the same deal for service sector PMIs on Wednesday.

In the US, data releases will include construction spending, personal income and expenditure, factory orders and chain store sales. But importantly, it's unemployment week, with the ADP private sector number out on the Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls number out on the Friday. The US quarterly earnings result season will continue to roll on.

Things are also beginning to quietly warm up in the Australian result season, with the highlight next week that of Rio Tinto ((RIO)) amongst the handful.

Data wise, Australia will see the PMIs, building approvals and retail sales, and of course the RBA will make a rate decision on Tuesday. Could the final decision depend on what happens, or doesn't happen, in Washington?

One thing's for sure – there'll be a couple of economists holding their breath with their you know what's on the line.

The Bank of England and ECB will also both make rate decisions next Thursday. It is unlikely either will move.

Now – fingers crossed. 

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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