Next Week At A Glance

This story features NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB

By Greg Peel

Expectations for tonight are that the US added 85,000 new jobs in July. In light of weak recent economic data, that figure has been pulled back from previously more confident numbers. Given the volatility of recent jobs figures you'd have to say Wall Street really has no idea.

The real question is one of potential response. Given last night's rout, would a bad number mean more selling or are we already there? Or would a bad number simply trigger more selling in a panicked market? On the other hand, would a good number turns things around or are the sellers now past the point of caring?

Perhaps what will be more important is next Tuesday's response from the Fed at its scheduled monetary policy meeting. Wall Street will be looking out for signs of QE3 and given recent weak data, with jobs yet to come, one can argue QE3 should be imminent. But it will depend on inflation, and on last count inflation was ticking up in the US. And Wall Street is not sure exactly what form QE3, if at all, might take.

It boils down to this being not a good time to panic, but not a good time to go barrelling in on assumptions of bargain value either. It's a stay-away market until margin call selling and irrational fear subside.

More US data to worry about next week include wholesale trade, the trade balance, business inventories and retail sales. The US Treasury will be auctioning three, ten and thirty-year bonds into a market currently paying up for a safe haven at low yields and wondering whether the Fed is warming up.

Next week is Chinese monthly data dump week, featuring inflation, production and retail sales numbers, but one can never be quite sure exactly when those sneaky Chinese are actually going to dump. Some calendars say Tuesday and some Thursday so FNArena will attempt to confirm by Monday.

Economic data releases in Australia next week include ANZ job ads, NAB business confidence and Westpac consumer confidence, along with lending finance in general and housing finance in particular, and a June quarter measure of retail sales (eek!). Unemployment comes out on Thursday and may be quite interesting.

The Australian earnings season steps up another gear next week with highlights including National Bank ((NAB)), Comm Bank ((CBA)) and Telstra ((TLS)). JB Hi-Fi's ((JBH)) will also be interesting ahead of sales results from Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and David Jones ((DJS)) (eek!).

Don't forget to get along, if you're a Sydneysider, to today's Trading and Investment Expo at Darling Harbour. After last night you may need to beat the rush. Rudi will be presenting at 3.45pm. I'll turn up ahead of the drinks afterward. 

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

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