Daily Market Reports | Oct 13 2011
By Greg Peel
The Dow finished up 102 points or 0.9% while the S&P gained 1.0% to 1207 and the Nasdaq added 0.8%.
The eyes of the world have been on one parliament building for the past 24 hours, anticipating the making of history, the beginning of a new era, a battle royal fought out across the benches, and no – it wasn't anything to do with Canberra and carbon tax. Indeed to the stock market, the carbon tax is old news.
Rather the fate of the world was held in the balance in the ancient city of Bratislava, capital to the mighty global economic force that is Slovakia. Blood has been spilt in the former Eastern European territory, a government has been brought down, and not since Soviet tanks rolled into the then united nation of Czechoslovakia in 1968 has the world been so on a knife edge as it watched on with dread.
News came through in the Asian session yesterday that the Slovakian parliament had voted down the bill to ratify the proposed E440bn European Financial Stability Facility, despite sixteen of the seventeen eurozone member parliaments having already passed their respective bills. In reality, this could have been a Lehman moment. But the world also knew that the opportunistic party politics were being played out and really there was no way in God's green earth Slovakia would not end up passing the bill. As it was, the ruling coalition party fell on its sword, promised an election, and with opposition support the bill was then passed.
So we now have an EFSF. Or, if you like, a Euro Fin Stab Fac. The next step is to leverage up that E440bn in order to provide enough funds to shore up European banks as they relent to what will likely be a 50% haircut on the value of their Greek sovereign debt holdings. The specifics of the next stage will be revealed, so we are led to believe, at the EU summit now scheduled for October 23. And then seventeen member parliaments will have to vote on it.
And so it goes on. To understand more about the EFSF, European banks, and right through to Australian banks, tune in today at 4.30pm for FNArena's Market Insight program on the BRR network.
It was a very big day on Wall Street on Tuesday, but they bought it again last night on the Slovakian news. As the Dow pushed forward to be up 209 points before 3pm – and at that point square for 2011 – traders laughed in spite of themselves that one lousy vote in Bratislava (as one might imagine, many Americans were seen running to their Atlases) could so impact on the colossal markets of Frankfurt, London and New York. Markets are currently headline driven – forget fundamentals – and there are plenty of headlines to come.
And there are plenty of commentators looking at the low volumes, the falling levels of short positions (implying short-covering), and the fact Europe still has a long way to go in deciding this rally has provided a good opportunity to sell. I posted a graph on Tuesday showing that while 1200 on the S&P 500 was loosely the top of the recent trading range, two previous break-outs had failed at 1220. Last night the S&P hit 1220.25 and then someone blew the whistle. The Dow fell back 100 points to the close.
Attention now returns to the US earnings season, and tonight's report from leading commercial and investment bank JP Morgan Chase. No one can agree what sort of result the banks, which live and die on the state of the economy, will post or what their guidance will be like.
Ahead of JP Morgan, Australia will today see the September unemployment numbers which may prove critical to the RBA's Cup Day rate decision. Although again I point out that the November meeting falls right in the middle of the EU and G20 meetings which might make a policy change a tough timing issue. Today also sees China release its September trade balance.
News out of the LME is that China is in buying copper again. This, along with the EFSF news and subsequent weaker greenback, had base metals deciding last night should be an up-day. Copper jumped 3% and the others followed with 1-3% rises (pretty much the reverse of Tuesday night).
The euro surged of course, sending the US dollar index down 0.8% to 77.01, while the carbon tax vote had little global impact on the relevant currency as the Aussie has surged almost two cents to US$1.0157. It looks like parity is back again, and all the heartache that comes with it.
It is not unusual for gold to get stuck in a trading range for a while following one of its regular bubble-and-bust episodes, and it would seem we're in one now until perhaps some truly new news emerges. Gold rose US$10.30 last night to US$1676.40/oz.
The oil pits were quiet, with Brent rising US63c to US$111.36/bbl and West Texas falling US24c to US$85.57/bbl. Looks like the spread is back to widening again.
US stocks have rallied 9% from their previous low in about a week since Europe announced it would get its act together. On the flipside, US bond prices have fallen – by an astonishing 30% in the benchmark ten-year. That yield hit 1.7% at its nadir, and last night settled up 6bps at 2.22% following tepid demand for the Treasury's auction. Imagine losing 30% on your stocks in a week! Slovakia and Chubby Checker have a lot to answer for.
The SPI Overnight was up 30 points or 0.7%, pretty much reversing the fall yesterday which followed the initial Slovakian rejection of the EFSF bill.
As noted, FNArena's ratings winner Market Insight will be broadcast today at 4.30pm on the BRR network. Today's topic – Banks. Just click on the image of the handsome guy and Rudi on the website to tune in live, or catch up tomorrow when the archived recording is posted.
Ahead of Market Insight, Rudi will make a regular appearance on the Sky Business channel at noon.
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