Daily Market Reports | Nov 23 2011
By Greg Peel
The Dow closed down 53 points or 0.5% while the S&P lost 0.4% to 1188 and the Nasdaq was steady.
By the time the second revision of the US September quarter GDP result was due last night economists had decided on a result of 2.3% growth, down from 2.5% at the previous revision. When the number came out at 2.0% Wall Street was duly disappointed and the Dow fell 100 points.
Not that Wall Street needs any downside encouragement at present in the wake of the failure of the budget Super Committee to arrive at a resolution on US$1.2trn reductions to the deficit, and of course that other issue abroad. However now that automatic budget cuts have been triggered, the budget does rather cease to be a story going into Christmas – that is unless one or more of the ratings agencies find political stalemate good enough reason for a US downgrade.
Whether or not disappointing, 2.0% GDP growth still represents the best result since last December and with economic data seemingly more positive in the interim, economists are looking for 2.5% growth in this December quarter.
As for that other ongoing saga, last night the IMF announced more “tools” to improve liquidity and financing needs for its members. The tools in question are not intended as yet another means of throwing money at Greece, Portugal et al but rather an assistance package for “members with sound policies and fundamentals”. In other words, it is an attempt to stem European contagion. Commentators applauded the move but noted this is no silver bullet either, and certainly doesn't overcome Europe's simple need for funds.
The announcement was nevertheless enough to turn Wall Street around such that it returned to the flat line by 2pm, just in time to read the minutes of the last Fed monetary policy meeting.
At the meeting the FOMC members decided the US economy was not about to fall back into recession, but that there remained considerable downside risk to the economy stemming from you know where. Members debated more monetary stimulus but decided against it at this stage, without ruling it out down the track. US inflation is not coming down as fast as might have been expected, but the Fed is wary of what fiscal measures might be applied in the name of budget cuts. All up it was reason not to push the QE3 button just yet but to have the security codes on hand just in case.
Perhaps it was disappointment in not hearing more positive talk about QE3, or perhaps it was just the current general malaise, but Wall Street drifted off again disinterestedly towards the close. Tonight represents the last session before what is effectively a four-day Thanksgiving holiday. The NYSE is open for half a day on the Friday, but typically only three men and a dog turn up.
The IMF news managed to turn the euro around last night leaving the US dollar index as good as square at 78.22. The Aussie drifted off a bit further to US$0.9842. After its big drop on Monday night, gold managed to rebound US$15.40 to US$1699.40/oz.
Base metals similarly clawed back some losses with copper up 1%. There was a bit more action in the oil pits last night as traders reacted to freshly announced sanctions from the US, UK and Canada as the latest reaction to Iran's nuclear program. The intention is to hit Iran where it hurts – its oil revenues – which had Brent rising US$2.84 to US$108.91/bbl and West Texas US99c to US$97.91/bbl.
Having auctioned two-year notes on Monday night, last night the US Treasury auctioned five-year notes and once again achieved a new historically low yield. It doesn't seem like a great investment to get 0.94% on your money over five years, particularly when US core inflation is running at 2%, but again it's a case of where else does one park one's money? Foreign buyers took 45%.
The SPI Overnight fell 24 points or 0.6%.
Wall Street will see durable goods, personal income and spending and consumer confidence data tonight before everyone starts heading off early to the airport. The Asian session will bring the HSBC flash estimate of China's November manufacturing PMI.
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