FYI | Dec 01 2011
By Chris Shaw
Heading into December, the technical analysts at Barclays Capital note the month is another very positive one for equities, following on from the bullish bias of November. India's Sensex and the JSE in South Africa enjoy their best month of the year this month, while the FTSE in London and the Sensex are on eight-year December bullish streaks.
In terms of the odds of advances for major markets this time around, Barclays has 80% or better chances for gains for the likes of the Sensex, FTSE and Canada's TSX, while the S&P in the US and Australia's All Ords are among those rated as better than 70% chances of ending the month higher.
Only the Shanghai Composite is given a less than even money chance of posting a gain for December, Barclays pointing out this is the only index with negative median and average returns for the month.
In the commodities markets expectations are more mixed, as while aluminium generally enjoys its second best month of the year natural gas tends to fall. Barclays gives aluminium a 71% chance of closing higher this December, while copper, oil and gold are around even money chances of gains. Silver is rated a 46% chance of advancing this month and natural gas is given a 47% chance.
Among currency pairs, Barclays suggests the euro/yen pair has the highest probability of an advance this month at 73%, while 59% chances of an advance are ascribed to the euro against both the US dollar and the British pound.
Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars are given near 60% chances of gains against the greenback this month, but elsewhere among the commodity currencies Barclays expects the Canadian dollar to lose ground against its US counterpart. The US dollar is also seen as a slightly better than even money chance of gaining against the yen.
In fixed income markets Barclays notes December is generally a positive month for debt, though it tends to be the worst month of the year for New Zealand 10-year bonds. These are given a 52% chance of a yield advance this time around, while all other 10-year bonds are rated less than even money chances of posting yield gains.
Most unlikely are Canadian 10-years, Barclays giving these securities just a 26% chance of delivering a yield advance. Even at the shorter-end of the curve most securities are regarded by Barclays as unlikely to post yield gains, as only US 2-year bonds and 3-month euroyen securities are rated as better than 50% chances of such performance.
From a yield curve perspective Barclays suggests Euro 2-vs-10 year securities have a 63% chance of seeing a steepening in the curve, while US-vs-UK 10-year bonds offer the highest probability of a widening in relative value this month.
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