FYI | Feb 01 2012
– Emerging markets historically the best equity performers in February
– Aluminium the best of the commodities, natural gas the worst
– USD likely to struggle against the yen this month
– Tough month for some Australian and US bonds
By Chris Shaw
Emerging markets tend to be the pick of equity markets in February according to an analysis of seasonal monthly trends by Barclays Capital, while European markets typically struggle. The technical analysts are predicting similar performance this year in suggesting the Shanghai Composite has the best odds of an advance at 76%.
This compares to a 54% chance of a gain for the FTSE100 and a 48% chance for Germany's DAX, while US indexes are seen as a little better than even money to post gains this time around. Performance is likely to be mixed elsewhere, Barclays suggesting the Nikkei and Toronto markets offer 55% chances respectively of gaining this February, against just a 47% chance for the All Ordinaries.
Commodities are also likely to deliver mixed performance, the technical analysts at Barclays noting while aluminium tends to be the best performer, offering a 63% chance of advancing this time around, natural gas has its worst month of the year and has only a 43% chance of posting a gain. Gold is likely to do better given a 56% chance of gaining, while oil is given similar odds of ending the month higher.
None of the major currency pairs have strong odds of advancing this February, though Barclays notes both the AUD/USD and EUR/GBP pairs tend to outperform. Both are given 56% chances of advancing this month. In contrast, the USD/JPY pair has the lowest odds of posting a gain at just 37%, while the EUR/JPY is given only a 44% chance of finishing February at higher levels.
In fixed income markets February is the worst month of the year for Australian 10-year and US 5-year and 2-year bonds as measured by median and average yield changes, all of which Barclays suggests have a better than 50% chance of posting yield increases this month. At the other end of the spectrum, Canadian 10-year bonds and 3-month Short Sterling have the lowest odds of a yield increase at just 33% and 36% respectively.
From a yield curve perspective, the most likely to deliver a steepening are EU 2v10 year securities, while similar securities in the US are likely to show a flattening of the curve. In relative value terms, spreads are most likely to widen between US and both EU and UK 2-year securities.
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