The Overnight Report: Honeymoon Fading

This story features ENERGY RESOURCES OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ERA

By Greg Peel

The Dow fell 20 points or 0.2% while the S&P was flat at 1312 and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%.

The US broad market S&P 500 has marked a 4.4% gain in January. This may not seem on face value to be a remarkable result, but it is. It's the best January for the index since…drum roll…1997.

There is an old adage on Wall Street that suggests “how goes January, so goes the rest of the year”. History shows that a good January is often a precursor for a good twelve months but it doesn't always work, of course, and you might be better off taking stock tips from Athena Starwoman.

Speaking of Athena, Greek prime minister Lucas Papademos declared last night that he was hopeful of a deal on Greek debt restructuring with the private sector by the end of this week. It would be good news, except that Papademos also said that last week, the week before, and the week before that. What the now completed EU summit did manage to achieve was 25 of 27 signatures of approval on a new “fiscal compact” which is a precursor to more homogenous fiscal policy across the EU – itself a first step towards possibly one day creating a euro-bond. Abstaining were the UK and the Czech Republic, neither of which are in the eurozone.

So nothing new of consequence out of Europe overnight.

Turning to the US, the weaker than expected earnings reports continue to roll in with last night Dow components Exxon and Pfizer disappointing and suffering 1-2% share price falls. Exxon's biggest problem was soaring capex while Pfizer just couldn't get a rise. On the other hand, component US Steel, which had as much of a fun 2011 as did OneSteel and Bluescope here, surprised and scored a 5% gain.

More worryingly, it's beginning to look like last week's disturbing GDP result has marked a peak in improvement for US economic data.

The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence was expected to hit 68 this month, up from 64.8 in December. Instead it fell to 61.1, with higher gasoline prices being blamed. The Chicago purchasing managers' index of business activity in America's trading hub fell to 60.2 from 62.2 although that's still a strong result on a 50-neutral index. And then there was the Case-Shiller house price index.

All through 2009-10, the US housing market was the single most important area of economic assessment. By 2011 no one was paying housing a lot of attention anymore once prices had appeared to simply be weak and just not going anywhere, and Europe was more in focus anyway. Yet Ben Bernanke made particular mention of the weak housing market last week before extending the Fed's zero interest rate policy to 2014, at a time when there was beginning to be talk of an improvement in housing.

The Case-Shiller 20-city house price index had looked like it may have bottomed a few months ago but last night's 1.3% fall for November marked the third fall in a row. Year on year, house prices are down 3.7%. Another number that Wall Street seemingly ignored over 2011 was that of mortgage foreclosures. They are simply continuing to rise, and that harks back to better but still stubbornly high US unemployment numbers.

The weak US confidence number was not good news in London where the flurry of recent activity in base metals, no doubt driven by excitable commodity funds, has waned. Everything bar tin was down 1-2% again. Oil was again little moved.

The US dollar ticked up a bit to 79.28 but so has the Aussie, up 0.2% to US$1.0617, and gold, up US$10.70 to US$1739.00/oz. With Greece still unresolved, Europe facing recession, and the US stuck on zero interest rates, the Aussie continues to offer a good yield for carry traders and gold is still a hedge against more central bank stimulus.

The weird thing, perhaps, is that despite no resolution in Europe and despite a seeming peak in US data there are still stock buyers out there. Volumes are anaemic, but every time some bad news sends Wall Street south – last night's data releases had the Dow down 86 points in the morning – the buyers slowly tick the indices back up. Wall Street just doesn't want to tank at present, which possibly reflects the serious levels of cash on the sidelines. Let's hope the new buyers don't change their minds.

Tech has been the big winner, with the Nasdaq putting in better performances than the Dow of late. However, Amazon has just released its earnings report after the bell and it was a miss, sending its shares down 9% in the after-market.

The Australian market also seems fairly resilient, if not dull, and the SPI Overnight was up 8 points.

It's the first of the month and that means manufacturing PMI day across the globe, beginning locally before moving on to China and beyond. The US will also see the ADP employment number tonight.

Energy Resources of Australia ((ERA)) will release its full-year result today, which is sure to be a cracker.

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