article 3 months old

Has The Gold Story Changed?

Commodities | Mar 08 2012

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By Jonathan Barratt
 
In trading the markets we have to understand that those market tends to move in a line of least resistance. Although we can continue to paint a positive picture for the precious metals we cannot stand in front of its recent moves. Essentially, the fundamental picture remains the same, however we have just traded to better or cheaper levels. The move last week was fast and savage to say the least, we suspect that it was just not on back of Bernankes’ comments concerning QE3 but rather a large liquidation of a position going through the market at an illiquid time. The positions we had in both gold and silver have been stopped out with small profits, and as the markets are lower we have jumped back in as the fundamentals have really not altered.

It is interesting to see that China's demand for gold remains solid as incomes across the board increase. It feels inevitable that China will eventually surpass India as the number one annual consumer of the metal in the world. Last year demand for Gold from China rose 20% to 770 metric tons, which is 163 tons short of India’s consumption. However, on a quarterly basis for metals, China has just eclipsed India.

We continue to be supportive of both Silver and Gold however, until we can see some positive momentum we have to remain cautious on long positions. We have small long positions in the market at the moment.

Chart point:

“Stops on long positions are safe at US1758” for those who we caught out last week please note the level at which we had our stop in. Gold is just trading at the 200 day MA, which for gold traders is an important level to watch as trends are made and broken at this level. On silver the stop was a little way away however still protected traders from the volatile move. We are currently at support in both metals however, as yet we have no signal to get back into the market.


Produced by Jonathan Barratt direct from the trading desks of Commodity Broking Services, Barratt's Bulletin provides expert analysis of commodity markets, global indices and foreign exchange movements. Click here to take a no obligation 21-day trial to Barratt's or to learn more visit www.barrattsbulletin.com. Content included in this article is not by association necessarily the view of FNArena (see our disclaimer).

This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell, or as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, products, securities or investments. This report does not, and should not be construed as acting to, sponsor, advocate, endorse or promote products or any other products, securities or investments. This report does not purport to make any recommendations or provide any investment or other advice with respect to the purchase, sale or other disposition of products, securities or investments, including, without limitation, any advice to the effect that any related transaction is appropriate for any investment objective or financial situation of a prospective investor. A decision to invest in securities or investments should not be made in reliance on any of the statements in this report. Before making any investment decision, prospective investors should seek advice from their financial advisers, take into account their individual financial needs and circumstances and carefully consider the risks associated with such investment decision.

 

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