Daily Market Reports | Mar 22 2012
By Greg Peel
The Dow closed down 45 points or 0.4% while the S&P lost 0.2% to 1402 but the Nasdaq managed a slight gain.
All the talk on the Street last night was of a lengthy research note issued by Goldman Sachs analysts suggesting the US is now looking at a “once in a generation” opportunity to buy stocks. It is time to give bonds the “long good bye”, said Goldmans, and time to give equities the “long good buy”.
Response to the report ranged from head shaking to eye rolling to “I'm not so sure”. Even bullish commentators were keen to back away from the “generation” call, suggesting it to be a bit hyperbolic at this stage. The reality is the S&P is up 12% for the year, up about 27% from the recent low and up over 100% from the March 2009 low. This is the once in a generation time to buy? A more widely held view even among the more optimistic is that the 2012 run has been a bit rapid and is now a bit overdone. Often when Goldman speaks, it moves markets. But not last night.
The Nasdaq has performed a lot better than the S&P over those same time periods with Apple the clear driver (around 27% of the index) but other technology companies joining in, such as those involved in the latest fad of cloud computing. Technology dominates the Nasdaq but represents a more humble percentage of the S&P 500, in which banks remain the largest sector by market cap. There are a few tech companies in the Dow, but not the movers and shakers. Stocks like Microsoft have been stagnant in price for years. Apple is up 50% this year. Hence lately we have seen a lot of sessions where the Dow goes one way but the Nasdaq goes the other, with the S&P splitting the difference.
We are now approaching the end of the March quarter and fund managers do not want to let those 12% gains slip away. It's a good time to lock in and relax ahead of the June quarter and we are beginning to see a return to old fashioned last minute selling. The Dow was down about 20 with ten minutes to go and then suddenly closed down 45. The Nasdaq was up as much as 20 points before the Apple profit-takers moved in.
There wasn't a lot else going on last night. The Fed chairman and Treasury secretary made regular testimonies to a Congressional committee and while Bernanke expressed his concern that European risk still remains, he didn't really say anything new. US existing home sales fell 0.9% in February but the net January-February results were the best in five years, so no one much blinked. And there was another one of those “surprising” US weekly oil inventory results which had West Texas pushing up US80c to US$106.87/bbl while Brent was steady at US$124.20/bbl.
Fair dinkum. If you ever see any US oil analysts playing darts at your local, stay a long way clear.
Inventory results were also a factor for London base metals last night with a steady US dollar index providing no other impetus. Copper was steady but aluminium's 1.8% fall was the worst of the bunch. Gold was also steady at US$1649.80/oz with no move in the greenback and the Aussie is down 0.3% to US$1.0452.
The SPI Overnight was “unch”.
It seems Alacer Gold ((AQG)) has moved its reporting date to today rather than yesterday and it will join Sigma Pharmaceuticals ((SIP)). We might get the HSBC flash Chinese manufacturing PMI reading for March today although this release date appears not set in stone either.
Rudi will appear on Sky Business at noon and later today on Switzer TV (7-8pm).
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available in the FNArena Cockpit. Click here.
All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts in the Cockpit and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.
