Next Week At A Glance

This story features RIO TINTO LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO

For a more comprehensive preview of next week's events, please refer to "The Monday Report", published each Monday morning. For all economic data release dates, ex-div dates and times and other relevant information, please refer to the FNArena Calendar.

By Greg Peel

China's March quarter GDP result has come in at 8.1% growth, falling short of consensus expectations of 8.3% and shooting down talk of upside surprise which had Wall Street buzzing last night. Mind you, there was some confusion over DBS Group's 9% growth expectation, with that figure representing a quarter-on-quarter forecast as opposed to the published year-on-year official result. DBS' yoy forecast was 8.3%.

It's not a huge miss but a miss all the same, and the question now is as to whether markets should see the result in a weak light (maybe sparking a drop on Wall Street tonight), see it as all part of Beijing's soft landing plans (2012 target of 7.5%), or see it as more reason for Beijing to step up monetary policy easing.

Always and everywhere at present, monetary policy speculation is the overriding factor.

Next week is housing market week in the US and traders will be keeping an eye on this important element of the strong or weak recovery story. Housing market sentiment, housing starts, existing and new home sales and the FHFA house price index will all be released.

In Australia, all eyes will be on the minutes of the April RBA meeting, due for release on Tuesday. I have learned over the years to trust RBA rhetoric, no matter how subtle, and I suggest Stevens' April statement was handing over a May rate cut on a silver platter. Yesterday's jobs numbers now have some economists wondering, but the RBA appreciates just how volatile these numbers can be. The caveat is, of course, the March quarter inflation data yet to come, but expectations are for a lower, rather than higher, number. Will the minutes provide any more insight?

Beyond the minutes, next week sees leading economic indicator measures for Australia from both the Conference Board and Westpac.

Other data points to note next week will be the eurozone monthly trade balance and the two influential economic surveys out of Germany – the ZEW and IFO. The release of the China property price index will also be of interest.

On the local stock front, it's a big week for resource sector production reports with BHP ((BHP)), Rio ((RIO)), Fortescue ((FMG)), Santos ((STO)) and Woodside ((WPL)) all in the frame. Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) and Telstra ((TLS)) will both hold investor briefings. 

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