The Overnight Report: Coming To A Head

This story features OZ MINERALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OZL

By Greg Peel

The Dow closed down 104 points or 0.8% while the S&P lost 0.9% to 1338 and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%.

Apple missed on both revenue and earnings and third quarter guidance fell short of expectations. The sky is falling.

The reality is, nevertheless, that Apple is Apple and not any great representative of the US stock market (irrespective of its market cap), of the US consumer, or of the US economy. It is a law unto itself, a unique outlier, and rapidly shifting from being a consumer discretionary stock to a consumer staple stock. Everyone must have one or more iThings. That said, it appears the slowdown in China has impacted on Apple's sales.

The Apple result came after the bell on Wall Street last night and Apple shares are down 5% in the after-market. The result tailed a session which, on the subject of China, was topped by yesterday's HSBC flash manufacturing PMI result. This preliminary estimate for July showed a reading of 49.5 – still just on the contraction side of the fence, but representing the first bounce in months and the best result since February. June's reading was 48.2. It's the ninth monthly reading in a row representing contraction (from HSBC – Beijing's numbers are sitting just on the other side of the fence), but the first to suggest Beijing's recent easing measures are beginning to kick in.

One can only hope this is the case, and there is certainly a lot of hope out there when it comes to China. For when it comes to everywhere else, the picture is bleak.

A Reuters report last night suggested Greece is unable to pay what it owes and will have to undergo further debt restructuring. Ahead of the troika's inspection of the books before approval for the next bail-out tranche, three EU officials are reported as suggesting Greece will need to restructure some E200bn of bonds, requiring further support from the ECB and eurozone members.

We've already been through one, painful, restructure. If for some reason the usual suspects in Europe decide the best solution is another restructure – another lifeline for Greece – then please kill me. If they admit the cause is a lost one, and begin the process of showing Greece the door, party at my house. The world is so sick of the tortuous tale that is Greece that any response to a Greek exit is looking more every day like being a positive one, rather than a negative one.

Meanwhile, Moody's has moved Germany's AAA rating to negative watch from stable. This is not a reflection on the German economy, it is a reflection on the Spanish economy and Germany's obligation to carry that burden. Nor is it any great surprise. The latest Greek situation is no surprise either, when it comes down to it.

Which is why Wall Street's session last night was not as much about Europe, but more about US corporate earnings, in which Europe plays a part. Europe is not the only part, however.

Those US companies generating substantial revenues offshore have been hit by the slowdown in China (see: Apple), the recession in Europe and the related fall in the euro/rise in the US dollar. However, Americans are the greatest consumers in the world, so the domestic front remains ever important. Here there are two words stifling business and consumption in the US at present, and they are “fiscal cliff”. It is the uncertainty surrounding upcoming potential tax and other fiscal policy changes weighing on US business and hiring intentions.

The fiscal cliff was hinted at by United Parcel Service – an economic bellwether stock – last night as the reason for its guidance reduction (and subsequent 4% fall in share price). Major telco and smart phone carrier AT&T (Dow) also posted a miss. Video streaming leader Netflix announced 50% fewer new subscribers in the June quarter from the March quarter. Its shares fell 12%. Domino's Pizza missed on revenues. DuPont (Dow) issued a cautious outlook. It was not a good day on the earnings front.

Nor was it a good day for US data. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index has crashed to minus 17 this month from minus 1 last month and the recently introduced “flash” reading of the US manufacturing PMI indicated a fall to 51.8 for July from 52.5 to the lowest level since December 2010.

Which is largely why the Dow was down 200 points before 3pm. There it began to find some support, without a lot of conviction, when suddenly with ten minutes to the bell a report was published by the Wall Street Journal.

“Federal Reserve officials,” the report suggested, “impatient with the economy's sluggish growth and high unemployment, are moving closer to taking new steps to spur activity and hiring”.

Hallelujah, here comes the cavalry. The Dow bounced 100 points in ten minutes. Surely the report must be confirming the announcement of QE3 at the next Fed meeting, being next Wednesday?

“Amid the recent wave of disappointing economic news, conversation inside the Fed has turned more intensely toward the questions of how and when to move. Central-bank officials could take new steps at their meeting next week, July 31 and Aug. 1, though they might wait until their September meeting to accumulate more information on the pace of growth and job gains before deciding whether to act.”

Yeah good one Scoop. We knew that. In fact we've known that for weeks. As you were.

The US dollar pushed higher again last night, up 0.3% to 84.01, as the ten-year bond yield plumbed new depths at 1.4%. Gold again fought back against the currency, rising US$4.60 to US$1581.30/oz. The Aussie is slipping, but not significantly, having fallen 0.4% to US$1.0219.

Underscoring that the news out of Europe last night was not particularly new, base metals finished only slightly down in London and the oils ticked up a few cents. The big news in commodities is in the grains and other softs, however, which saw a second night of significant selling as rain finally falls on the US midwest. The softs were due a blow-off top nevertheless, and talk is that the rain has come to late to save the crop.

The local market held up pretty well yesterday having tanked on Monday, with the Chinese PMI providing a bit of relief. But last night the SPI Overnight fell 31 points or 0.8%.

It's CPI day today in Australia, and on the local stock front OZ Minerals ((OZL)) will provide a production report and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) will update guidance at its AGM. Tonight the UK will offer its first estimate of June quarter GDP and the US earnings season will roll on.

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