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Upside For Rio

Technicals | Jan 22 2013

This story features RIO TINTO LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO

By Michael Gable 

With the market (ASX 200) edging higher here, we are getting close to some obvious resistance at 4800. A break of that should see the market try to head to 5000. However, the RSI has not been this overbought since the market peaked in 2007. A slightly smaller overbought condition in October last year helped the market to a drop of over 200 points. So while we may be heading higher, we are creating the conditions for another correction. It may be a mild 200 points, or it could be deeper. Either way, the continuing absence of any panic selling on our market suggests that we stay with the trend for now.

Rio Tinto

When I last looked at Rio Tinto ((RIO)) on 11 December, it was trading at $61.30. I wrote “I can see that the 18 month downtrend has possibly ended now with a “reverse head and shoulders” pattern having developed. Initially this type of move can see the stock rally up towards $69 – $70.” RIO subsequently hit a high of $69.34 before pulling back over the last few weeks. What I can see now is the break of another head and shoulders pattern, but on a smaller scale. This suggests to me a pullback towards $62. So despite the change of CEO at RIO, the cooling off in the iron ore price is likely to soften the share price of RIO that little bit more. This means that the next buying opportunity for RIO is closer to $62. Once that price is achieved, RIO has the potential to start the next big move up. So a rally off $62, in my opinion will see the share price hit $75 during the second quarter of this year.
 
Potential Strategy
 
There is a potential trade on the short side with RIO, either through short selling or covered call writing. What you don’t want to see on the short side is a close above the neckline (indicated by the dotted line). After that, if we find good support at $62, traders might even consider some long dated call options. Something out of the money will be low cost trade with tremendous upside potential.
 

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Visit Michael Gable's website at  www.michaelgable.com.au/.

After leaving Macquarie Bank's Securities Group in 2008 after many years of service, Michael has gained a highly regarded reputation in the financial services industry. As a Private Client Adviser with Novus Capital, Michael has become a popular live commentator and analyst for Sky News Business Channel’s “Your Money, Your Call” program. He is also the author of the weekly stock market report “The Dynamic Investor”.

Michael assists investors to achieve their goals by providing advice ranging from short term trading to longer term portfolio management.

Michael deals in all ASX listed securities and specialises in covered call writing to help long term investors protect their share portfolios and generate additional income.

Michael is RG146 Accredited and holds the following formal qualifications:

• Bachelor of Engineering, Hons. (University of Sydney) 
• Bachelor of Commerce (University of Sydney) 
• Diploma of Mortgage Lending (Finsia
• Diploma of Financial Services [Financial Planning] (Finsia
• Completion of ASX Accredited Derivatives Adviser Levels 1 & 2

Disclaimer

Michael Gable is an Authorised Representative (Rep. No. 376892) of Novus Capital Limited AFSL 238168 ACN 006 711 995. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited, their associates and respective Directors and staff each declare that they, from time to time, may hold interests in securities and/or earn brokerage, fees, interest, or other benefits from products and services mentioned in this website. This website may contain unsolicited general information, without regard to any investor's individual objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not specific advice for any particular investor. Before making any decision about the information provided, you must consider the appropriateness of the information in this website or the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) or Financial Services Guide (FSG), having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs and consult your adviser. Any indicative information and assumptions used here are summarised and also may change without notice to you, particularly if based on past performance. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited believes that any information or advice (including any securities recommendation) contained in this website is accurate when issued but does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited are not obliged to update you if the information or its advice changes. Michael Gable and Novus Capital Limited and each of their respective officers, agents and employees exclude to the full extent permitted by law, all liability of any kind, in negligence, contract, under fiduciary duties or otherwise, for any loss or damage, whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise, whether foreseeable or not, to the extent arising from or in connection with this website.

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