FYI | Mar 15 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Reports Standard Bank: upside for #copper seems capped and we remain bearish towards copper’s short term price prospects
– Citi economists suggest Oz labour market data distorted by Australian Open Tennis Tournament! Better to focus on unemployment rate (stable)
– Iron Ore price continues to weaken ^tp (Source;Bloomberg) pic.twitter.com/My73PcX6dk
– Stats to contemplate: YTD gains for banks, cons staples and cons discretionary are 16-17% (ex-divs) while materials sector is up… 2.65%
– Morgan Stanley changes view to no more RBA rate cuts as risks for Oz economy seen shifting to upside as loose policy tentatively kicks in
– Investors switching into #resources stocks? Chart by Morgan Stanley today suggest underperformance of sector since March 2012
– Oz #banks now expensive on all valuation metrics, says UBS. Analysts concerned share prices are disconnecting from fundamentals
– Goldman Sachs lowers 2013 Oz GDP forecast to 2.4% from 2.7%. Non-mining should be strong in 2014 on 2x RBA cuts and AUD/USD below parity
– Reports BA-ML: "Our conviction in the Great Rotation out of bonds and into stocks is as strong as ever"
– Gap narrowing: #BHP still Oz number one company (market cap $114.5bn) but #CBA closing in rapidly ($113.5bn) – less than one percent left!
– NAB pares back expectations to 2x RBA cut by 25bp this year. Global growth estimated at 3.3% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2014 (2.3% and 2.0% for Oz)
– The power of different angles: spot #ironore at lowest level for year to date, 9% off peak but still at USD144.1 tonne, well above estimates
– RBS Morgans sees QBE no longer as a solid yield stock, predicts lower dividends for longer, though fortune remains tied to US economy
– RBS Morgans: are beginning to believe that part of reason for the slowdown in the Australian economy has been the effect of the carbon tax
– GS strategists move Neutral #Resources, Overweight #Banks with short term cautious view on equities. Target year-end rises to 5300 from 5000
– CIMB reiterates Oil Search (#OSH) is stand-out in large cap oil and gas sector in Oz. #Woodside (#WPL) regarded too expensive, Underperform
– CS lowers valuation #BHP on lower value from US oil and gas output. Finds shares are Fully Valued at present level. Neutral, target $40
– Concludes Citi: DJIA at new highs without Big Rotation out of bonds and with traditional Risk Off sectors outperforming. Conclusion?
– Changing relationship between US equities – crude oil – US dollar and, says BAML, it all relates back to US oil http://read.bi/15Itggx
– Remarkable: 7 stocks in DJIA responsible for most of the gains and Nasdaq still some 35% below peak in 2000. ASX200 carried by 11 stocks
– BTIG strategist Dan Greenhaus sees "macro exhaustion" + micro focus allowing US #equities to continue grind higher throughout 2013
– Good to keep in mind: China's economy makes slowest start since 2009 http://bloom.bg/X5ulz4
– Uber-Bull Jeremy Siegel joins the debate about How High Can The Dow Go? http://read.bi/Y8U7iP
– RBS Morgans on #gold: With macro-economic drivers likely to push and pull this year, we believe the sector suits traders over investors
– Funds Flows: high yielding bonds see largest inflows in 5 months. Precious metals suffer from redemptions for four weeks in a row
– Funds Flows: US equities enjoying 15 straight weeks of inflows. BA-ML reports this is longest winning streak in 13 years
– This does not get enough attention: why most #gold equities are a bad investment (and have been suckers) http://bit.ly/Y1buD9
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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