FYI | Jun 07 2013
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
– Falling AUD has effectively lifted dividend support level for #BHP Billiton shares. 4% FY14 support level used to be around $31, now $33.50
– Historic event gone largely unnoticed: last week marked the first time that US domestic crude #oil production surpassed imports since 1997
– Wow! BA-ML calls today's “most important payroll release in years”. QE policy changes only triggered by either 250k or 90k jobs, cons 165k
– Citi again reviews mining services providers. Sees largest downside risks for #LEI, #BLY, #MND, lowest risk for #DOW and #LLC #commodities
– OK, so now US markets are "correcting", but where does this leave Australia since Oz #equities started first? Almost negative for the year
– Believe it or not, but times they are a'changing (financial institutions and investors take note) http://goo.gl/sa6i9 #investing
– CBA states the obvious (but true): necessary transition to non-mining led growth is hesitant and slow. Higher confidence levels are needed
– Nomura points out #ironore prices correct circa US$60 every calendar year. This year, so far, fall has been circa US$50. Support at US$110/t
– Fortescue (#FMG) shares up in a down market. Morgan Stanley has issued a Tactical Trading Idea predicting the shares will rise over 60 days
– New leaders of "risk" are not #commodities, #miners, or #energy as US takes over from #China, it's cyclical industrials, incl banks 2/2
– UBS strategists report multiple indicators suggest investors globally are warming towards accepting more risks, however… 1/2
– UBS maintains Cochlear's (#COH) growth to remain below what most people are expecting. Stock to de-rate further in the years ahead, Sell
– #China spot #ironore fell by 10.5% last week, but this week the mojo seems back: fines Fe62% up by US$4.70 to US$116.60/t, gain of 4.20%
– US traders burnt their fingers overnight as (too?) many had positioned for another positive Tuesday; winning streak 20 has ended #equities
– CBA: multi-year uptrend for USD has begun. Stronger USD should lead to weaker USD-denominated #commodity prices in large part, but not fully
– Deutsche Bank observes: #Commodities remain the worst performing asset class on a total returns basis since the end of last year #mining
– ANZ Bank remains of the view that a lift in global economic momentum will emerge through the latter part of 2013, once again favouring risk
– OK, the most obvious comment made in the history of Australian finance: it's going to become even uglier for poor Billabong (#BBG) #equities
– BA-ML: both markets and Fed are too optimistic about the growth outlook. Both are understating likely persistence of unwanted low inflation
– Remarkable: stockbroking analysts remain cautious on Cochlear's (#COH) immediate prospects with price targets cut to far below share price
– Overnight price action: #metals and #energy rally on further QE speculation, gold jumps, even #ironore joined in: up US$1.50 to US$111.90/t
– According to FactSet, 81% of guidances from US companies has been negative, this is 88% for companies in Materials sector #equities
– On Macquarie's calculations, AUDUSD at 0.90 would lift FY14 market EPS growth forecast to +16.1% from the current +10.5% #equities
– JP Morgan cut Brent #oil price forecasts: to H2 average US$115.00/bbl and for 2014 by minus US$5/bbl to US$117.50/bbl #energy
– Truly remarkable: China has accounted for circa 60% of total global loan growth since 2009 and stunning three-quarters in 1Q13 #commodities
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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