FYI | Sep 27 2013
The uptrend holds for a 15th week. The market is back at peak levels and Monday will be the end of a very good quarter for the markets. Weekly support levels show congestion between 5300 and 5325. Supports continue to be tested without conviction and volumes are very low. The short term daily stop for Monday is 5291 and the weekly stop is 5286 The important supports for next week are 5265, 5234 and 5221. Upside resistance is limited and a break of last weeks high will see resistance at 5337, 5362 and 5400. AUDUSD has failed at 0.95 and moved onto a weekly downtrend. Similar pattern in SP500 sees peak levels in place and a new weekly downtrend this week. The market has retested the peak from a fortnight ago and waits for volume to confirm the next direction. We continue to favour weakness after a 3 month long rally.
Bulls continue to hold gains with targets to 5400. A close above 5286 next week will continue the trend. The 15th week of the uptrend shows upside potential which has not been seen for the last few weeks. A lack of volume has assisted in support levels holding and any increase in volume may see the bulls resolve tested,
Bears had another attempt at ending the rally. Volume was low on the dips and supports held. The stop for next week is 5286 and the short term daily indicates this level should be tested early in the week. A close below 5286 next week will be the start of a long awaited downtrend. Downside target is 5221 then 5119. A break of 5119 will lead to a rapid sell off – Flash crash.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5119 – 5400
PIVOT POINT 5286
The uptrend holds for a 15th week. The market is back at peak levels and Monday will be the end of a very good quarter for the markets. Weekly support levels show congestion between 5300 and 5325. Supports continue to be tested without conviction and volumes are very low. The short term daily stop for Monday is 5291 and the weekly stop is 5286 The important supports for next week are 5265, 5234 and 5221. Upside resistance is limited and a break of last weeks high will see resistance at 5337, 5362 and 5400. AUDUSD has failed at 0.95 and moved onto a weekly downtrend. Similar pattern in SP500 sees peak levels in place and a new weekly downtrend this week. The market has retested the peak from a fortnight ago and waits for volume to confirm the next direction. We continue to favour weakness after a 3 month long rally.
Bulls continue to hold gains with targets to 5400. A close above 5286 next week will continue the trend. The 15th week of the uptrend shows upside potential which has not been seen for the last few weeks. A lack of volume has assisted in support levels holding and any increase in volume may see the bulls resolve tested,
Bears had another attempt at ending the rally. Volume was low on the dips and supports held. The stop for next week is 5286 and the short term daily indicates this level should be tested early in the week. A close below 5286 next week will be the start of a long awaited downtrend. Downside target is 5221 then 5119. A break of 5119 will lead to a rapid sell off – Flash crash.
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5119 – 5400
PIVOT POINT 5286
Review of prediction from 20th September 2013 for last week
The uptrend holds for a 14th week. The market is overbought for the third week in a row The Weekly RSI is at peak levels Market failed at 5318 which was Fridays daily upper range and is now a important resistance level As with last week any weakness in the market will signal the peak and the bulls will need to pull another rabbit out of the hat to stop a pullback The daily will open the week on a downtrend and an open under 5265 will confirm the peak and falls of 3% 5% may be seen SP500 record highs and AUDUSD back at 0.95 look like peak levels – refer to website for full reports The market had another breakout last week and this week the bulls will battle to consolidate the breakout.Futures now expire December.
Bulls continue to hold gains with limited upside resistance. A close above 5269 next week will continue the trend. The 14th week of the uptrend shows no resistance above 5300 and break of this level will target higher levels.
Bears continue to see supports tested and stops under pressure without a change in trend For the second week in a row the stop is around Fridays close level indicating any weakness next week is expected to confirm a medium term peak in the market. A close below 5269 next week will be the start of a downtrend. Downside target is 5185. A break of 5185 will lead to a rapid sell off – Flash
iQUANT FORECAST RANGE 5185 – 5300
PIVOT POINT 5269
ACTUAL 5219 – 5322
Monday started on a down trend below the 5269 stop. Supports were tested numerous times before a break back to an uptrend on Wednesday. Another retest of support on Thursday morning lead to another rise. The market finished up 40 points for the week. The bears lacked conviction and volume was lowest since July. Fridays market action and volume confirmed a lack of interest. Volume was heavy into the close on a number of days as end of Quarter approaches. Short term daily closed the week on a downtrend and the weekly closed on an uptrend. In the medium term the market is overbought for the 4th week in a row above 5300. The SP500 fell from record highs and the AUDUSD drifted lower as expected. A lack of volume helped hold the market at peak levels.
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ASX200 report tracks the December ASX200 SPI. The ASX200 index is currently trading at a 5 point discount to the futures. All levels in this report refer to the ASX200 SPI futures
The information contained in this communication is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. Neither your personal objectives, financial situation or needs have not been taken into consideration. Accordingly you should consider how appropriate the advice (if any) is to those objectives, financial situation and needs, before acting on the advice. Iquant Systems Pty Ltd (CAR No.435627) is a corporate authorised representative of Avestra Capital Pty Ltd (AFSL No. 292464).
Copyright © 2013 Iquant Systems, All rights reserved.
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