Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 11, 2022

This story features APPEN LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APX   ELO   HLA   JHG   MVP   QUB   RDG   SCP   SGM   SM1   TOY   TPG  

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $2.71

Bell Potter rates ((APX)) as Hold (3) –

Following a weak trading update, Bell Potter lowers its price target for Appen to $3.00 from $4.25 after lowering earnings forecasts, lowering its valuation multiple and increasing its risk weighting.

Guidance implies to the analyst a 2H earnings (EBITDA) margin of between just 2-4%, due to a trend towards smaller, lower-margin projects and ongoing investment in product, technology and transformation.

As the lower target price is close to the current share price, Bell Potter maintains its Hold rating.

This report was published on October 7, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.29
If APX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 21.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 100.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 117.8.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO    ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $2.38

Shaw and Partners rates ((ELO)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners estimates Elmo Software is achieving similar revenue growth and sales efficiency as its closest overseas peer Paycom, yet the share price has relatively underperformed by around -30% in recent weeks.

Based on last available fiscal year data, the broker points out both companies added 49c of annual recurring revenue (ARR) for every $1 invested in FY22.

The analyst remains confident FY23 guidance is achievable and cash break-even after Xmas is on-track. 

The Buy rating and $6.80 target are maintained.

This report was published on October 5, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $4.42
If ELO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.98.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLA    HEALTHIA LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.46

Shaw and Partners rates ((HLA)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners expects Healthia's margins and volumes to kick up in FY23 with trade normalising in the September quarter and October.

The broker reports key Medicare categories staged a recovery in August, particularly Physiotherapy and Optometry.

The broker's analysis also finds that Healthia likely under-indexed -$16m of annual revenues in the second half due to covid, and expects latent demand will emerge in FY23.

Shaw also appreciates the de-risking arising from the recent capital raising, noting critical mass is building and management recently reiterated guidance.

EPS and dividend forecasts ease over FY23 and FY24. Buy rating retained. Target price inches up to $2.64 from $2.61.

This report was published on October 6, 2022.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $1.18
If HLA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.70 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.37.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG    JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $32.22

JP Morgan rates ((JHG)) as Underweight (5) –

JP Morgan increases its target price for Janus Henderson to $28 from $25. The fund manager's US growth funds generally
performed in line with the growth indices during the September quarter.

The analyst observes the performances in some key funds have deteriorated. Also, outflows have increased, which JP Morgan attributes to bad markets and the weaker investment performance.

The outlook for ‘growth investing’ remains uncertain, according to the broker, and the Underweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on October 7, 2022.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $32.22 Difference: minus $4.22 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.57, suggesting downside of -2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 220.14 cents and EPS of 334.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 380.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 284.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 219.44 cents and EPS of 261.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 358.2, implying annual growth of -6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 287.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVP    MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.75

Bell Potter rates ((MVP)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter reinstates coverage of Medical Developments International after a change of analyst with a Speculative Buy rating and $2.25 target price. 

The analyst explains that FY22 was a year of consolidation for the company, which discontinued its veterinary segment and established direct sales forces in Australia and Europe; and the company posted $13.7m in Penthrox sales (up from $10.5m in FY21), and $8.25m from respiratory devices (up from $5.4m in FY21).

In Penthrox's main Australian market, ambulances provide the bulk of the business and now penetration into emergency departments is considered to be the next critical market.

The company announced in March that the FDA has lifted the clinical hold on Penthrox, allowing investigation in the clinical trial setting and, while the trial is being designed, the company is moving to capitalise on Australian and European markets, which have fewer, less fickle hurdles and arbitrary delays.

This report was published on October 5, 2022.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.5
If MVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.29.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.94.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB    QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.48

Jarden rates ((QUB)) as Buy (1) –

Despite concerns that a slowdown is ahead, Qube Holdings reported container volumes growth in August made it the strongest month on record. Total domestic container movements in the first quarter were up 7.6% year-on-year, driven by imports growth.

Jarden suggests strong volumes could indicate retailers and importers are confident about building inventories ahead of Christmas, and expects this strength will remain moving into the peak retail period.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.25 are retained.

This report was published on October 6, 2022.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.77
If QUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 27.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 77.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RDG    RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.06

Bell Potter rates ((RDG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Resource Development with a Buy rating and 8c target price.

The company is commissioning the Lucky Bay Garnet mine, which has an estimated mine life of 29 years, on the western Australian coast.

Production at the mineral sands development for Phase 1 is forecast to rise from 130ktpa garnet to 300ktpa; and from 25ktpa of fine heavy mineral conentrate to 58ktpa by FY25, says the broker.

Bell Potter forecasts annual earnings (EBITDA) and free cash flow generation of $50m and $34m, and points out the company has a relationship with Mineral Resources ((MIN)), which owns a 66% controlling interest in the company. 

Resource Development also conducts a constructions services constracting business for the infrastructure, mining and energy sectors.

The company has also bought an option to buy patented technology to process a waste by-product of the Bayer refining process into High Purity Alumina, which probably counts as an ESG play, Bell Potter suggests.

This company has early stage manganese tenements in the Pilbara.

This report was published on October 5, 2022.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.02
If RDG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP    SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP RE LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.43

Moelis rates ((SCP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Moelis lifts its rating for Shopping Centres Australasia Property to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds following a -16% slide in share price over the last two months.

Given the current soft economic backdrop, the analyst points out around 47% of the REITs rent-roll is made up of relatively non-discretionary specialty tenants, with leases escalating at 3.9% per year.

Moreover, Shopping Centres Australasia Property is attractively priced compared to other defensive, non-discretionary REITs, according to the broker.

The $2.95 target price is unchanged.

This report was published on October 7, 2022.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.52
If SCP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 16.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.10 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $13.10

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes the near-term earnings outlook for Sims could remain challenging after US industry peer Schnitzer released weaker-than-expected preliminary 4Q results.

Schnitzer attributed the weak results to higher inventories and a decline in the selling prices for ferrous and non-ferrous recycled metal in the 4Q, as well as higher inventories, summarises the analyst.

The broker lowers its FY23 EPS estimate by -23.6% on concerns over the potential for higher inventory levels for Sims during a period of declining scrap metal prices. A trading update is expected at the upcoming AGM on 8 November.

The Neutral rating is maintained, while the target price slips to $13.90 from $14.80.

This report was published on October 6, 2022.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $13.10 Difference: $0.8
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.57, suggesting upside of 26.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.80 cents and EPS of 106.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.3, implying annual growth of -52.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.20 cents and EPS of 127.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.7, implying annual growth of -13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SM1    SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $2.86

Bell Potter rates ((SM1)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Bell Potter upgrades its rating for Synlait Milk to Buy from Hold, following the company's recently reported FY22 profit of NZ$38.5m, a step-up from the broker's NZ$26.8m forecast. The target price rises to $3.60 from $3.20.

There were stronger than expected results in the nutritionals business due to higher finished infant milk formula (IMF), and in the consumer foods businesses from lower operating costs, explains the analyst.

The broker believes the combined impact of operating leverage and balance sheet deleverage will drive the share price upwards. These drivers have resulted from the optimisation of capacity towards nutritionals and away from ingredients.

This report was published on October 7, 2022.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $0.74
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.47.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TOY    TOYS 'R' US ANZ LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $0.02

Shaw and Partners rates ((TOY)) as Buy (1) –

Large investment to drive future sales of Toys 'R' Us ANZ in Australia and the UK weighed on FY22 results, along with global supply chain issues, explains Shaw and Partners.

The broker describes the result as good compared to a year ago, considering the massive transformation in Australia, which includes a four times larger Melbourne logistics factory.

The target price falls to $0.12 from $0.20. The Buy rating is unchanged as the broker feels its forecasts are very conservative, given the opportunity if 5% market share is reached in Australia and execution in the UK is successful.

This report was published on October 5, 2022.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.1
If TOY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 500% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.67

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Neutral (3) –

The ACCC has raised concerns as to the proposed Telstra and TPG Telecom network sharing agreement, including risk of TPG raising prices should the agreement proceed given the superior network quality and the increased cost of providing services to TPG.

Given concerns from the ACCC, Goldman Sachs sees more uncertainty in the outcome of the agreement but continues to anticipate a positive outlook, expecting the agreement would be positive for industry rationality.

The Neutral rating and target price of $6.10 are retained.

This report was published on October 3, 2022.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: $1.43
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting upside of 35.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 210.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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