SIMS LIMITED (SGM)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

20/08/2025

3

Neutral

$14.00

0.29%

On further inspection, Citi notes FY25 earnings (EBIT) were a slight beat on forecast and consensus for Sims but net profit after tax missed.

Lower volumes led to better margins, boosted by higher non-ferrous revenue, the US tariff impact, with an increased intake of unprocessed scrap which resulted in better shredder utilisation.

Citi lowers its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by -11% and -5% for FY26/FY27 for higher China steel export impacts.

Target falls to $14 from $15.50. Neutral retained.

****

Sims announced FY25 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $175m versus Citi and consensus forecasts of $170m/$164m, respectively. Underlying net profit after tax missed consensus of $90m at $83m, and the dividend of 23c was in line.

North America came in softer than anticipated, while SA Recycling was better than expected. The loss generated from global trading at -$4m was lower, and Australasia reported softer-than-forecast results due to weakness in regional steel prices.

Citi notes US tariffs are boosting US ferrous demand and supporting local demand for ferrous scrap, with the premium expected to move into FY26 from FY25 and boost North American sales and margins. Export sales will continue to face headwinds from record-high Chinese steel exports.

Citi also notes resale prices are being assisted by hyperscale data centre expansion, with stronger US supply chains supported by tariffs.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 79.10 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 117.20 cents.

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

21/08/2025

3

Neutral

$14.40

3.15%

Sims reported an FY25 operating result slightly ahead of consensus, with earnings (EBITDA) up 3%, though Jarden questions result quality.

The broker points to misses in North America and A&NZ Metals, unusual 2H25 trading profits, restructuring charges, and a receivables provision from the UK Metals sale.

North America Metals saw higher trading margins from a pivot to unprocessed scrap and domestic markets, but costs and adverse weather weighed, explain the analysts.

SA Recycling was strong on non-ferrous demand, and Lifecycle Services exceeded the broker's expectations with data centre demand.

Management plans $100-150m in North American land sales, with reinvestment in consolidation, yards, and capex.

Jarden cuts its target price to $14.40 from $15.40 on modest EPS downgrades and valuation roll-forward, while keeping a Neutral rating. The broker views the near-term outlook as steady, supported by tariffs and non-ferrous strength.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 69.60 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 29.70 cents and EPS of 84.60 cents.