Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 23, 2022

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AGY   BKL   CAJ   CCX (3)   DHG   DRO   ELD   GDC   HFR   KLS   MAD   MDR   MRM   NPR   PLS   PME (2)   PRN   QAL   QAN   REA   RED   SUL   SYM (2)  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $2.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) –

29Metals has cut 2023 production guidance for gold/silver to down -10-15%, with copper flat and zinc up 5-10%, due to throughput impacts at Capricorn and a lack of development at Golden Grove. The downgrades are significant, Canaccord Genuity suggests.

The broker's 2023 earnings forecast falls -46%. Target falls to $1.70 from $2.00.

Sell retained.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.05, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of -95.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of -45.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 165.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AGY    ARGOSY MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AGY)) as Buy (1) –

Argosy Minerals has produced the first battery-quality lithium carbonate at its Rincon operations in Argentina, representing a significant validation of its production process in Canaccord Genuity's view.

Argosy must now ramp up to nameplate capacity over the first half of 2023 and maintain quality metrics, the broker notes. Rincon currently has no offtake arrangements in place.

Speculative Buy and 85c target retained.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.295
If AGY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.25.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.75.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKL    BLACKMORES LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $74.66

Goldman Sachs rates ((BKL)) as Neutral (3) –

Following the implementation of better than anticipated price increases in September and accounting for the latest foreign exchange assumptions, Goldman Sachs has updated its outlook on Blackmores and downgraded earnings per share forecasts -1.2%, -1.9%, -2.6% through to FY25.

The broker reiterates Blackmores is largely trading in line with expectations, and appears on track to deliver $55m in annualised savings by the end of the fiscal year. However, Goldman Sachs expects earnings margin expansion is limited given inflation and increased expenses.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $75.80 from $76.50.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $75.80 Current Price is $74.66 Difference: $1.14
If BKL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $74.05, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.7, implying annual growth of 35.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 129.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 255.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 264.7, implying annual growth of 23.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.32

Bell Potter rates ((CAJ)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter has initiated coverage on diagnostic imaging company Capitol Health with a Buy rating and 36c target price.

Capitol Health owns 67 Australian clinics, the bulk of which are in Victoria and Tasmania.

Bell Potter observes the covid recovery is starting to be felt in the imaging sector and that Medicare indexation for MRI services restarted last July, with additional MRIs for liver cancer, breast cancer, fertility and ultrasounds for obstetrices being introduced last November.

This report was published on December 22, 2022.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.04
If CAJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.33.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.88.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCX    CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $0.41

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCX)) as Buy (1) –

City Chic Collective has provided a trading update for the period since its AGM, which includes the Black Friday, Cyber Monday period, and it's not good

Revenue growth fell sharply, management guided to margin contraction and likely December-half loss, and Canaccord Genuity observes the company's share price is trading at a -22% discount to its liquidation value of roughly 52c a share.

The broker expects City Chic Collective will finish the half in a net debt position, with a big inventory wind-down on the cards, and foresees a sharp consensus de-rating for the June half. 

Buy rating retained, the broker expecting the share price will recover once investors' liquidity concerns are assuaged. Target price price falls to $1.05 from $1.50.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.645
If CCX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 159% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 96.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.7, implying annual growth of -61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CCX)) as Neutral (3) –

City Chic Collective's trading in the past month has disappointed market expectations, with revenue year-to-date is down -7% year-on-year. The decline was lead by a  sharp -31% revenue decline in Australia New Zealand over the last month, despite the region reporting 10% growth in mid-November. 

The decline is tracking steeper than Jarden had expected, driven by a decline in consumer demand and higher return levels. The broker warns of further margin compression, and lowers its revenue assumptions -2% for FY23 and FY24. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.49 from $1.17.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.085
If CCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 96.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.7, implying annual growth of -61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CCX)) as Upgrade to Market Weight from Underweight (3) –

City Chic Collective has guided to a small December-half loss after experiencing a difficult trading period in recent months.

Wilsons expects further discounting may be in order, particularly given the likely inventory unwind.

While the update was disappointing, the broker believes the -50% slump in the company's share price means value is emerging and notes a private equity leveraged buyout would be a possibility at 54c a share.

Rating upgraded to Market Weight from Underweight. Target price falls to 46c from 60c

This report was published on December 20, 2022.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.055
If CCX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 96.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.7, implying annual growth of -61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 405.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $2.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Buy (1) –

After a weak update issued by Domain Holdings Australia, Goldman Sachs has made meaningful downgrades to residential listing assumptions across its coverage. The broker assumes listings volumes recovery in FY24, benefiting from a halt to rate hikes from May. 

A positive from the update, for Goldman Sachs, was Domain's operational expenditure reduction. The broker now anticipates a -340 basis point margin decline over the financial year. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.45 from $3.90.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.75
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 32.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of 69.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRO    DRONESHIELD LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.21

Bell Potter rates ((DRO)) as Buy (1) –

DroneShield has announced an $11m contract for a range of counter-drone equipment from a government agency.

Bell Potter observes the dollar-value of the contract is substantially higher than previous contracts between the $0.5m and $2m range, and believes the deal cements the company's position as a leading player in the global counter-drone market.

The broker notes the company had $15m inventory on hand at September 30 and should be able to fill most of the order by year end, and that it will begin 2023 with sales pipeline of almost $180m (in which the broker now has greater confidence).

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 3.2c from 3.0c. 

This report was published on December 22, 2022.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.105
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.89.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $10.28

Moelis rates ((ELD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis initiates coverage on Elders with a Buy rating and a target price of $12.04, expecting the company's backward integration strategy to provide through-the-cycle growth.

The strategy has already proved positive within the company's generic crop protection segment, with its own brands accounting for 45% of total crop protection product sales and a targeting 70% equating to a $20m gross profit benefit, according to Moelis. 

Elders intends to next apply the strategy to its generic animal health products segment. Moelis sees the backward integration strategy as providing potential upside to forecasts, as generic products continue to take wallet share. 

This report was published on December 22, 2022.

Target price is $12.04 Current Price is $10.28 Difference: $1.76
If ELD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting upside of 22.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.6, implying annual growth of -14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.0, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDC    GLOBAL DATA CENTRE GROUP

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.15

Moelis rates ((GDC)) as Buy (1) –

Global Data Centre has completed its acquisition of two data centres in Lille France, at a cost of EUR56m. The centres offer usable capacity of 1.8 megawatts and maximum capacity of 2.7 megawatts, bringing Global Data Centre's maximum capacity to 11.7 megawatts.

Moelis considers the acquisition to provide well established scale in the region, and expects revenue and cost synergies to emerge. The broker has also lifted its full year earnings forecast to $6.6m, including a $2.4m contribution from the acquisition over the second half and implying 75% growth year-on-year.  

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.00 from $2.15.

This report was published on December 22, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.85
If GDC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 82.14.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HFR    HIGHFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.60

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HFR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity lowers its target price on Highfield Resources to $1.66 from $1.68 to account for the company's recent capital raising.

The broker expects a final investment decision on the Muga Potash mine soon and observes early construction work has started in Aragon, where all permits have been received.

Meanwhile, the broker notes crop prices and margins are above historical averages and are rising despite energy inflation, and expects this will bode well for potash prices out to 2025.

Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $1.06
If HFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 177% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLS    KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $5.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KLS)) as Hold (3) –

Kelsian Group has been awarded a seven-year, $800m contract to operate buses in two regions in Sydney. Canaccord Genuity is pleased as it is another proof-point around Kelsian's contract retention capabilities.

Market sentiment has improved towards the stock in the past couple of months, the broker notes, due to bolt-on M&A, contract awards and comforting AGM commentary.

Canaccord considers Kelsian to have resilient characteristics while offering the scope for organic and inorganic growth. Hold and $6.83 target retained.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $6.83 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: $1.02
If KLS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.91, suggesting upside of 32.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 25.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $3.65

Moelis rates ((MAD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis initiates coverage on Mader Group with a Buy rating and a target price of $4.05. While already one of the largest domestic heavy mining equipment and infrastructure specialist maintenance experts, the broker expects accelerated penetration of the North American market to drive outsized returns.

The North American market offers higher margins and a total addressable market size of five times that of Australia's. It has also reported strong momentum over FY22, with revenue growth of 107%.

Alongside anticipated domestic market growth, Moelis finds Mader Group well placed for strong earnings growth over the coming two years. 

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.4
If MAD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.21.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.24

Moelis rates ((MDR)) as Buy (1) –

MedAdvisor's first half guidance has come in stronger than Moelis had expected, with a targeted $58-61m in revenue reflecting 50-60% growth year-on-year. The broker highlights the strong update implies significant revenue improvement over the second quarter.

According to Moelis second quarter uplift was derived from the expanded covid awareness program, with the broker estimating the program will contribute $22m over the first half before moderating over the second half. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 40c from 34c.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.16
If MDR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 48.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 240.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MRM    MMA OFFSHORE LIMITED

Energy Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.96

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MRM)) as Buy (1) –

MMA Offshore's December-half trading update outpaced Canaccord Genuity's forecast by more than 30% and the broker considers the outlook to be strong and the balance sheet in much better condition, putting capital management initiatives on the agenda.

Strong utilisation rates contributed to the result.

The company also announced it has sold AHT, the Mermaid Strait for $13m, and the broker observes the recent AGM pointed to stronger asset values.

Buy rating retained. Target price jumps to $1.21 from 88c.

This report was published on December 20, 2022.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.25
If MRM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.62.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NPR    NEWMARK PROPERTY REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.40

Moelis rates ((NPR)) as Buy (1) –

Newmark Property REIT has revised the terms of its Underwood Shopping Centre acquisition, after the property sustained significant fire damage following the previous bid. The purchase price has been revised to $56m from $57m, with $46m expected to be paid upfront and the balance on completion of milestone targets. 

The addition of Underwood slightly increases Moelis' medium-term earnings outlook for Newmark Property REIT. The broker highlights gearing looks likely to settle above the REIT's targeted 30-40%, and expects the balance sheet to be front of mind for investors amid ongoing interest rate rises. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.73 are retained.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.33
If NPR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.87

Goldman Sachs rates ((PLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Pilbara Minerals has revised guidance.

It was a mixed bag, Goldman Sachs appreciating the increase in pricing following the finalisation of offtake price reviews.

The company also advises a final investment decision for the P1000 project is scheduled for the March quarter.On the downside, Pilbara Minerals increased its capital expenditure guidance for its P680 project.

The broker has also increased its FY23 spodumene price forecasts.

All up, price increases outpace rising expenditure.

EPS forecasts rise 12% to reflect improved pricing; but FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts ease -2% and -4% to reflect a pricing lag.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises 4% to $4.70.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.83
If PLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 22.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 84.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.8, implying annual growth of 304.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 60.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.5, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $56.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Neutral (3) –

Pro Medicus has signed a seven-year, $15m deal with Luminis Health. Goldman Sachs highlights securing a contract with another mid-sized integrated delivery network is notable, and indicative of Visage's ability to demonstrate an attractive value proposition to smaller institutions able to offer a positive addressable market runway.

The contract is based on a transactional licensing model for Visage 7, which will be fully cloud based. The broker feels Visage holds a tangible competitive advantage as the only currently available solution that can be deployed at this scale.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $51.60 from $42.60.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $51.60 Current Price is $56.40 Difference: minus $4.8 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.71.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 78.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Overweight (1) –

Pro Medicus has announced a seven-year contract with US-based Luminis Health, with a minimum contract value of $15m. As per other recent contract wins the agreement includes cloud-based implementation, with a go-live date anticipated in the first half of 2023.

According to Wilsons, Pro Medicus continues to demonstrate adoption within integrated delivery networks, offering access to a significant addressable market outside hospitals and academic centres. This Luminis Health contract now joins contracts with Novant, Allina Health and Inova Health secured in the last year.

The Overweight rating and target price of $71.00 are retained.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $56.40 Difference: $14.6
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 53.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 104.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.50 cents and EPS of 65.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.64.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRN)) as Buy (1) –

Perenti has issued its second guidance upgrade within five weeks, and Canaccord Genuity believes the company still looks good on value.

The broker says the company's margins, balance sheet, capital and revenue are running strong, and expects they will remain so given the gold price appears set to keep rising. Perenti has also won contracts at Evolution ((EVN)) and Regis Resources ((RRL)).

The broker observes the top end of Perenti's new guidance range is 35% above the bottom of the first FY23 guidance.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $1.39 from $1.28.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $1.39 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.08
If PRN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.16.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.16.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.59

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAL)) as Buy (1) –

Qualitas has upgraded guidance for its Real Estate Income Fund ((QRI)), and the fund announced a $50m facility, which Goldman Sachs expects will be immediately accretive to the parent, offering an attractive earnings opportunity.

EPS forecasts rise 0.5% in FY23; 0.6% in FY24; nd 0.3% in FY24.

Goldman Sachs also points to the QRI's positive leverage to rising interest rates and notes risk margins are expanding across the fund's pipeline, which should boost credit returns, and help boost performance fees for Qualitas.

The broker observes Qualitas receives a 20% performance fee on returns above 8%.

Buy rating retained. Target price edges up to $3.45 from $3.40.

This report was published on December 22, 2022.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.86
If QAL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.78.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.92.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.16

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes the Qantas Airways' share price is not yet reflecting improved earnings capacity. Bookings indicate the airline will achieve capacity equal to 96% of pre-covid levels in the first half, and 105% of pre-covid levels in the second half. 

Notably, this compares to market capacity equal to 92% in the first half and 100% in the second half.  The broker highlights its FY23 earnings per share forecast is 58% above FY19 levels, despite group capacity remaining -2% below pre-covid. 

The Buy rating and target price of $8.20 are retained. 

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $6.16 Difference: $2.04
If QAN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.70, suggesting upside of 26.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.2, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $113.61

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

After a weak update issued by Domain Holdings Australia (((DHG)), Goldman Sachs has made meaningful downgrades to residential listing assumptions across its coverage. The broker assumes listings volumes recovery in FY24, benefiting from a halt to rate hikes from May.

For REA Group, the broker believes the company's greater scale and revenue diversification will see it hold its margins despite the more challenging market. REA Group remains the brokers preference. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $158.00 from $159.00.

This report was published on December 21, 2022.

Target price is $158.00 Current Price is $113.61 Difference: $44.39
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $125.00, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 169.00 cents and EPS of 307.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 321.4, implying annual growth of 10.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 227.00 cents and EPS of 379.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 361.2, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 197.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Red 5's production and June-half guidance fell shy of the broker, due mainly to higher than expected all in sustaining costs, despite strong production.

The company advised commercial production has started at Koth and expects first gold in early June. The broker expects the company will be free cash flow positive by the end of June.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 32c from 38c after incorporating the company's recent capital raising.

This report was published on December 20, 2022.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.1
If RED meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.51

Wilsons rates ((SUL)) as Initiation of coverage with Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons initiates coverage of Super Retail Group with a Market Weight rating and $10 target price.

The broker spies limited upside but appreciates the company's strong cash position and expects a buyback could be on the cards.

This report was published on December 20, 2022.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.51 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.37, suggesting upside of 14.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 65.20 cents and EPS of 99.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.7, implying annual growth of -11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 58.50 cents and EPS of 89.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.5, implying annual growth of -8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYM    SYMBIO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $2.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYM)) as Buy (1) –

Symbio Holdings has issued material earnings downgrade as delays to a cohort of new numbers coming on to the network, and an unexpected return of inventory, meant growth in its flagship CPaaS segment will be lower than expected, Canaccord Genuity notes.

Cost mitigation is underway but will not prevent reduced earnings. The broker cuts its FY23 forecast by -26%.

Target falls to $3.00 from $5.50, Buy retained.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.44
If SYM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.44.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((SYM)) as Hold (3) –

With demand from large customers slowing and existing numbers being returned as unused inventory, Symbio Holdings has reduced earnings guidance -25%. The company now targets earnings of $26-30m, previously $36-39m, and will reduce operating and capital expenditure to preserve its balance sheet.

Moelis highlights weakening demand, first noted in the second half of FY22, has further deteriorated over the first half of FY23. 400,000 numbers in advanced stages as of the beginning of the financial year currently remain uncontracted. 

The broker expects gross profit will remain marginally higher over FY23. The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.63 from $4.23.

This report was published on December 23, 2022.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If SYM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.06.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.12.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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