MADER GROUP LIMITED (MAD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

26/02/2025

3

Hold

$6.50

18.18%

Mader Group reported revenue and earnings below Bell Potter's expectations due to challenged labour market conditions in Australia and ongoing uncertainty in the US political landscape (ahead of the 2024 US elections), delaying customer investment decisions.

In Canada, efforts to win new customer work and increased engagement with existing customers drove a 30% increase in shifts delivered compared with a year ago.

Mader expects margins to recover in 2H25 as customer demand returns, driving greater utilisation of the work force. In Australia, the company anticipates increased demand from the development of new mining sites and continued growth in new vertical service offerings.

At this stage, Bell Potter continues to see a mixed near-term outlook for the US, and expects Australia to deliver the lion’s share of growth in 2H25 to achieve stated guidance. Target falls to $6.50 from $6.80, Hold retained.

FORECAST
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 28.50 cents.
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.

04/03/2025

1

Buy

$6.83

24.18%

Moelis notes Mader Group's 1H25 result showed expanded margin and continued growth in Australia, but was partly offset by flat performance in North America. 

The company ended December with a $22m cash balance, and net debt improved to $23.2m from $31m in June.

The company reiterated FY25 guidance, which the broker believes is achievable from workflow momentum and higher expected utilisation of increased hiring.

The broker lifted FY25-27 EPS estimates mainly on interest expense reduction. Target price rises to $6.83 from $6.52, and Buy maintained.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.