Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 27, 2023

This story features CAMPLIFY HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

CHL   DEG   DSE   ERD   FBU   FLT   GOR   JLG (2)   MBH   NXT   PEK   PXS  

CHL    CAMPLIFY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $2.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CHL)) as Buy (1) –

Camplify has briefed investors on the size of its market opportunity with Canaccord Genuity believing the business has a superior model compared with traditional recreational vehicle rental agencies as it does not own or hold inventory but acts as an intermediary.

Around 95% of those hiring RVs through the company are domestic travellers which is in contrast to the traditional RV inventory-heavy businesses, the broker suggests, where 90% or more of bookings are derived from international travel.

The broker assesses that during recessions people trade down and reduce overseas travel and exposure to hotels in preference for camping. The Buy rating and target price of $3.25 are retained.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $1.18
If CHL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 207.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 207.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DEG    DE GREY MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DEG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

De Grey Mining has an agreement with Novo Resources to earn into the Egina project, a land package adjacent to the company's Mallina gold project.

Canaccord Genuity observes the agreement expands the company's already dominant exposure in the Mallina Basin by 70%.

The land package is highly prospective for large-scale gold deposits similar to Hemi as well as sheer-hosted orogenic deposits similar to Withnall and Mallina.

 Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target is $2.50.

This report was published on June 22, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $1.185
If DEG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.82, suggesting upside of 38.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSE    DROPSUITE LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.26

Petra Capital rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital reiterates its Buy rating and 29c target for Dropsuite based on peer analysis and recent M&A activity in the space, especially the bid for Tesserent ((TNT)) by Thales.

The broker highlights the confidence displayed by Thales in the cybersecurity outlook, which is expected to grow at a double-digit pace through to at least 2026. 

Thales has shown an ability to grow in excess of system by leveraging greater operating scale and a broader product set, notes Petra Capital.

Similarly, the analyst believes Dropsuite has the products, business model and capital to exceed system growth (around 25% per year) within the data back-up and archiving markets over the next several years.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.03
If DSE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 130.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ERD    EROAD LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $1.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ERD)) as Buy (1) –

Eroad has received an indicative proposal from The Volaris Group at NZ$1.30 a share. The offer price is a 69% premium to the prior close and a 120% premium to the four-month VWAP and Volaris has taken a strategic stake of  17.7%.

Canaccord Genuity believes the bid is opportunistic, as Eroad nears an inflection point, and undervalues the current performance of the New Zealand business.

The broker suspects, if the board recommends the transaction, it would illustrate a need for external capital that cannot be undertaken at current prices, or that management is walking away from its recently-articulated strategy.

The broker retains a Buy rating and NZ$$2.55 target.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Current Price is $1.14. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.05.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.79

Goldman Sachs rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Fletcher Building has provided FY23 guidance of NZ$800m, at the bottom of the prior range. Distribution business guidance is also below expectations.

The company expects Australasian volumes in FY24 will return to "mid cycle levels", a decline of around -8% on the prior peak.

Despite the softer earnings and activity guidance, Goldman Sachs believes the stock is cheap, expecting trough earnings in FY24/25 will put the PE ratio at around 10x. Target is reduced to $5.55 from $5.75 and a Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on June 21, 2023.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.76
If FBU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.87 cents and EPS of 43.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.21 cents and EPS of 46.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of -11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $18.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((FLT)) as Neutral (3) –

Flight Centre management has maintained the EBITDA outlook for FY23 at $270-290m. The company has noted continued strength across both corporate and leisure business with corporate ahead of the industry recovery.

Goldman Sachs increases revenue estimates for FY23-25 by 4-6% and EBITDA by 11-18%. Neutral rating maintained. Target is $19.40.

This report was published on June 21, 2023.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $18.57 Difference: $0.83
If FLT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.52, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of 188.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Gold Road Resources expects June quarter production of 72-76,000 ounces, -17% below Canaccord Genuity's forecasts. The Gruyere operation has been affected by reliability/utilisation of production drills and blasting availability. A significant rain event also affected mining rates.

As a result 2023 production guidance has been revised to 320-350,000 ounces, down -6%. While the downgrade may be disappointing, the broker observes solution appears relatively straightforward and should be addressed over coming months.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.15 from $2.20.

This report was published on June 22, 2023.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.625
If GOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 31.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 40.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 17.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JLG    JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

Johns Lyng has upgraded FY23 earnings guidance, with revenue increased to $1.19bn and EBITDA to $133.2m. This excludes the impact of the discontinued Commercial Construction Services division which is now expected to incur a loss of -$15m.

The upgrade has been underpinned by further catastrophe-related volumes. Canaccord Genuity observes the company should enter FY24 with a very strong level of work in hand and a large pipeline of opportunities.

The broker retains a Buy rating with an unchanged $9.25 target.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $4.01
If JLG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 26.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 84.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((JLG)) as Buy (1) –

FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance for Johns Lyng was upgraded by 10% to $133m, excluding a -$15m Commercial Construction loss and -$2m Porter Davis write-off, explains Moelis.

Across the business-as-usual (BaU) division, FY23 guidance (excluding the Commercial Construction loss) implies to the broker half-on-half earnings growth of around 12% across the 2H.

It’s assumed this growth was largely driven by the domestic business, as the US continues to undertake investments in its platform. While CAT revenues have declined from their 1H peak, the analysts forecast the run-rate will remain elevated through FY24.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to $7.30 from $8.34.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $2.06
If JLG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 26.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 84.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MBH    MAGGIE BEER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.13

Taylor Collison rates ((MBH)) as Upgrade to Speculative Buy (1) –

Taylor Collison has welcomed management's aspirations to improve Maggie Beer's underutilised resources. Within the products portfolio the broker believes there is a tangible opportunity to shift into categories with materially larger commercial offerings without compromising the premium quality philosophy.

The broker does not expect signs of earnings improvement until FY25, noting the company will commit around -$5m for automation improvements to enhance capabilities. Rating is upgraded to Speculative Buy. No target is provided.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Current Price is $0.13. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.25.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 102.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.13.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $12.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((NXT)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs covers US-based Equinix Inc which specialises in data centers.

Commentary at the recent Equinix investor day supports the broker’s positive thesis around the benefits of generative AI in driving demand for hyperscale and co-location facilities for the likes of NextDC.

Management at Equinix believes its facilities will benefit from the opportunity provided by generative AI over the next 25 years and is already holding talks with existing hyperscale customers to design new, more dense AI targeted facilities.

Equinix remains comfortable around its ‘extremely well established’ ability to pass through rising costs (albeit at slower rate), while preserving historical returns. 

The broker reiterates its Buy rating and $14.60 target for NextDC.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $12.30 Difference: $2.3
If NXT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.77, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEK    PEAK RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Peak Rare Earths has completed a $27.5m placement to advance the development of the Ngualla rare's project in Tanzania. Shenghe Resources invested $5.6m, taking its stake in the company to 19.8%.

Canaccord Genuity explains the company has recently achieved a major de-risking milestone in finalising a framework agreement with the government of Tanzania, and is now seeking to execute binding offtakes, with financing to follow ahead of FID in September.

Canaccord Genuity incorporates the recent capital raising and also slightly delays the development timeline for Ngualla by six months, expecting construction to start in the March quarter of 2024 and first production in the September quarter 2025.

The Speculative Buy rating and 90c target are retained.

This report was published on June 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.45
If PEK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXS    PHARMAXIS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.04

Taylor Collison rates ((PXS)) as Outperform (2) –

Pharmaxis has proof-of-concept data for its PXS-6302 skin scar treatment, with the data showing excess collagen content in established scars was reduced by up to -50%.

The company intends to progress to a second randomised trial in collaboration with Professor Fiona Ward and the University of Western Australia.

Taylor Collison observes the next milestone will be a significant data update on the PXS-5505 monotherapy trial in MF patients. The broker values the stock at a diluted $0.16 a share for a $12m capital raising in FY25. Outperform maintained.

This report was published on June 21, 2023.

Current Price is $0.04. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.46.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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