The Short Report – 05 Oct 2023

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((ELD))
            [1] => ((LTR))
            [2] => ((DMP))
            [3] => ((ARB))
            [4] => ((BRG))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => ELD
            [1] => LTR
            [2] => DMP
            [3] => ARB
            [4] => BRG
        )

)

This story features ELDERS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELD
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

See Guide further below (for readers with full access).

Summary:

By Greg Peel

Week Ending September 28, 2023.

The ASX200 fell early last week on surging US bond yields, before stabilising, only to fall again this week.

There were two big moves in short positions last week.

Elders ((ELD)) had been creeping up the table bracket by bracket for several weeks on expectations of weaker crop harvests, and subsequent guidance downgrades, topped off by the official declaration of El Nino. The stock has fallen -15% since mid-September.

Last week it appears shorters decided to cash in. Elders shorts fell to 6.8% from 8.3%.

The other big mover was lithium miner Liontown Resources ((LTR)), which having fallen out of the table, returned suddenly at 7.8% shorted last week. See below.

Otherwise it appears shorters may be losing patience with the slower consumer spending theme. Discretionary retail has for some time been overrepresented in the shorts table behind battery-related miners.

Last week saw reduction in short positions for Domino’s Pizza ((DMP)) and ARB Corp ((ARB)), while Breville Group ((BRG)) fell to below 5%.

Weekly short positions as a percentage of market cap:

10%+

PLS     11.6
GMD   10.2

In: GMD

9.0-9.9%

FLT, SYR

In: SYR           Out: GMD      

8.0-8.9%

IEL, CXO, SYA

Out: SYR, ELD, SHV

7.0-7.9%

SHV, LTR, APX, MSB, BOQ, ACL, LLC

In: SHV, LTR            

6.0-6.9%

OBL, ELD, JBH, TIE, ARU, HVN, BRN, VUL, WBT

In: ELD, VUL             Out: DMP, ARB

5.0-5.9%

ARB, DMP, TPW, LYC, IFL, LIC, A2M, CHN, SLX, CCP

In: ARB, DMP                        Out: VUL, BRG

Movers & Shakers

Liontown Resources’ share price has been in a holding pattern since early September due to takeover interest from US lithium giant Albemarle. It has remained so despite this week issuing an update on expected capital and operational expenditure for its Kathleen Valley project that exceeded broker forecasts (negative).

Brokers are split on whether the increase in costs will lead Albemarle to rethink a binding offer. Macquarie (Neutral) suggests this might be the case, while Citi (Neutral) disagrees.

Complicating the issue is Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting continuing to build a stake in the company, from a less than 5% stake to 12.4% by late last month, all at prices below the $3.00 per share indicative offer from Albemarle.

Macquarie does not see Hancock making a competing offer for a full stake, while Jarden suggests Hancock’s ability to keep buying under $3.00 undermines a competitive situation. As I write, Liontown is trading at $2.95. Jarden has downgraded to Underweight, which by its own admission is risky for a stock with corporate appeal.

Will Albemarle lock in its $3.00 offer, despite higher costs? Is Gina trying to block a takeover, or force a higher offer price?

Tune in next week for new episodes.

ASX20 Short Positions (%)

To see the full Short Report, please go to this link

Guide:

The Short Report draws upon data provided by the Australian Securities & Investment Commission (ASIC) to highlight significant weekly moves in short positions registered on stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Short positions in exchange-traded funds (ETF) and non-ordinary shares are not included. Short positions below 5% are not included in the table below but may be noted in the accompanying text if deemed significant.

Please take note of the Important Information provided at the end of this report. Percentage amounts in this report refer to percentage of ordinary shares on issue.

Stock codes highlighted in green have seen their short positions reduce in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a lower percentage bracket. Stocks highlighted in red have seen their short positions increase in the week by an amount sufficient to move them into a higher percentage bracket. Moves in excess of one percentage point or more are discussed in the Movers & Shakers report below.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT

The above information is sourced from daily reports published by the Australian Investment & Securities Commission (ASIC) and is provided by FNArena unqualified as a service to subscribers. FNArena would like to make it very clear that immediate assumptions cannot be drawn from the numbers alone.

It is wrong to assume that short percentages published by ASIC simply imply negative market positions held by fund managers or others looking to profit from a fall in respective share prices. While all or part of certain short percentages may indeed imply such, there are also a myriad of other reasons why a short position might be held which does not render that position “naked” given offsetting positions held elsewhere. Whatever balance of percentages truly is a “short” position would suggest there are negative views on a stock held by some in the market and also would suggest that were the news flow on that stock to turn suddenly positive, “short covering” may spark a short, sharp rally in that share price. However short positions held as an offset against another position may prove merely benign.

Often large short positions can be attributable to a listed hybrid security on the same stock where traders look to “strip out” the option value of the hybrid with offsetting listed option and stock positions. Short positions may form part of a short stock portfolio offsetting a long share price index (SPI) futures portfolio – a popular trade which seeks to exploit windows of opportunity when the SPI price trades at an overextended discount to fair value. Short positions may be held as a hedge by a broking house providing dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) underwriting services or other similar services. Short positions will occasionally need to be adopted by market makers in listed equity exchange traded fund products (EFT). All of the above are just some of the reasons why a short position may be held in a stock but can be considered benign in share price direction terms due to offsets.

Market makers in stock and stock index options will also hedge their portfolios using short positions where necessary. These delta hedges often form the other side of a client's long stock-long put option protection trade, or perhaps long stock-short call option (“buy-write”) position. In a clear example of how published short percentages can be misleading, an options market maker may hold a short position below the implied delta hedge level and that actually implies a “long” position in that stock.

Another popular trading strategy is that of “pairs trading” in which one stock is held short against a long position in another stock. Such positions look to exploit perceived imbalances in the valuations of two stocks and imply a “net neutral” market position.

Aside from all the above reasons as to why it would be a potential misconception to draw simply conclusions on short percentages, there are even wider issues to consider. ASIC itself will admit that short position data is not an exact science given the onus on market participants to declare to their broker when positions truly are “short”. Without any suggestion of deceit, there are always participants who are ignorant of the regulations. Discrepancies can also arise when short positions are held by a large investment banking operation offering multiple stock market services as well as proprietary trading activities. Such activity can introduce the possibility of either non-counting or double-counting when custodians are involved and beneficial ownership issues become unclear.

Finally, a simple fact is that the Australian Securities Exchange also keeps its own register of short positions. The figures provided by ASIC and by the ASX at any point do not necessarily correlate.

FNArena has offered this qualified explanation of the vagaries of short stock positions as a warning to subscribers not to jump to any conclusions or to make investment decisions based solely on these unqualified numbers. FNArena strongly suggests investors seek advice from their stock broker or financial adviser before acting upon any of the information provided herein.

Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.

FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms