Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 20, 2023

This story features ANSON RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASN

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ASN   AZS   BRG   CVV   DRE   DSE (2)   ECF   FBU   MIN   PLS   PPT   SHJ  

ASN    ANSON RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.14

Petra Capital rates ((ASN)) as Buy (1) –

There has been a 45% increase in total resource at Anson Resources' Paradox Lithium project in Utah following a consolidation of tenement ground and after including new properties acquired in July, explains Petra Capital.

The resource is now at 1.5mt lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) and the company is undertaking additional work in the western half of Paradox, which has a further 1.3-3.1mt exploration target.

The broker highlights operations are in a jurisdiction hungry for new lithium supplies, and Anson Resources  employs a  very low-impact production method. 

Petra Capital's Buy rating is maintained and the target slips to 71c form 78c due to new equity raise assumptions and adjustments to currency and commodity forecasts.

This report was published on October 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.565
If ASN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 390% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.25.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZS    AZURE MINERALS LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $2.41

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AZS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Azure Minerals continues what Canaccord Genuity describes as an aggressive exploration program at its Andover lithium asset, and has reported first visuals from target area 3, suggesting 35m and 15m of mineralised true thickness in the AP0004 and AP0005 pegmatites respectively. 

Canaccord Genuity points out this demonstrates further potential scale, with target area 3 showing better prospectivity than target area 2 in the broker's view. 

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.95 from $3.20.

This report was published on October 17, 2023.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $1.54
If AZS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 259.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.93.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 292.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.83.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $21.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((BRG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades its rating for Breville Group to Buy from Neutral on valuation and in the belief the post-covid earnings slow-down will be less than the market anticipates.

The broker notes the company’s unique positioning in the global coffee premiumisation trend, with its global high-end appliance brand backed by unique innovation. 

Given these specific advantages, the analysts note recent industry feedback on healthy spending growth by US consumers, especially those in households with income above US$100k.

The target rises to $24.50 from $23.50.

This report was published on October 13, 2023.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $21.90 Difference: $2.6
If BRG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 20.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.5, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVV    CARAVEL MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.13

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CVV)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Caravel Minerals has announced results of eight drill holes it expects to further confidence in resource models for Bindi and Dasher. As per Canaccord Genuity, results at Dasher suggest the higher-grade zone extends over 300m, potentially supporting a resource upgrade. 

Results will inform an upcoming resource update, anticipated in the December quarter, and the broker continues to expect delivery of a definitive feasibility study in the first half of next year. 

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 65 cents from 80 cents.

This report was published on October 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.52
If CVV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRE    DREADNOUGHT RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Ahead of the release of a resource update in coming weeks, Dreadnought Resources has released results of 68 infill and extensional holes at its Mangaroon project. Canaccord Genuity explains drilling has allowed a better understanding of variations in the Yin ironstones.

Canaccord Genuity is anticipating Dreadnought Resources to grow and de-risk the current 20m tonne ironstone resource already defined at the site. 

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 20 cents are retained.

This report was published on October 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.156
If DRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 355% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSE    DROPSUITE LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –

Dropsuite reported a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase to its annual recurring revenue in the third quarter, up 44% on the previous comparable period. The result suggests 7% upside to Canaccord Genuity's full year forecasts.

The broker does highlight churn from a low average revenue per unit legacy customer factored in the quarter, and estimates this legacy customer will drag on full year results. Excluding this, the broker estimates annual recurring revenue nearer $37m for the year.

In Canaccord Genuity's view, Dropsuite's annual recurring revenue and free cash flow margins are some of the best metrics on the ASX. The Buy rating and target price of 38 cents are retained.

This report was published on October 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.14
If DSE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 240.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a solid 3Q result for Dropsuite which demonstrated ongoing growth in paid users and average revenue per user (ARPU).

Annual recurring revenue jumped by 44% on the previous corresponding period (assisted by a weaker currency), and the analyst expects ongoing momentum. Strong market demand, market share gains and new product releases are expected to combine with M&A activity.

The broker reiterates Dropsuite has the products, business model and capital to exceed system growth and retains its Buy rating. The target rise to 32c from 31c.

This report was published on October 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.08
If DSE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.61.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 72.73.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECF    ELANOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY FUND

REITs – Overnight Price: $0.72

Moelis rates ((ECF)) as Buy (1) –

Elanor Commercial Property Fund's contracted sales for the Nexus Centre and Limestone Centres, conditional on capital raisings, fell through after the purchaser failed in this endeavour.

The sale of $65m, at a -9.7% discount to the assets' December 30 book value, will no long proceed, taking Elanor Commercial's gearing back to 35.1%.

On the upside, the sales were relatively high yielding and Moelis says the property fund continues to deliver strong leasing incomes, which is driving top line growth.

Buy rating retained, the broker observing the property fund is trading at a -26% discount to net tangible assets and offers an 11.5% distribution yield. Target price eases to 91c from 92c.

This report was published on October 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.185
If ECF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.02

Jarden rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden feels Fletcher Building has done a decent job of reiterating its position that Iplex pipe issues are not material, and defending itself against potential damage from BGC Construction's recent presentation, but also that current data do not support closure on the topic.

The broker sees a high probability the pipe issues are localised to Western Australia, which reduces the worst case scenario to a negative share price impact of -NZ67 cents per stock. Fletcher Building estimates full repair costs at NZ$50-100m. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$6.40 from NZ$6.60.

This report was published on October 14, 2023.

Current Price is $4.02. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 31.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.58 cents and EPS of 40.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.58 cents and EPS of 46.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $61.04

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden incorporates into forecasts lower lithium prices, a lower Australian dollar and higher iron ore prices, resulting in a $47.30 target price for Mineral Resources, up from $45.90.

Increases to the resource at Mt Marion and reserves at Wodgina increased asset valuations, with the larger mining inventories at both operations leading to modest expected life extensions, explain the analysts.

While understanding management's desire to reinvest for growth in the business, the broker is concerned by a deterioration in the balance sheet and retains a Sell rating.

This report was published on October 16, 2023.

Target price is $47.30 Current Price is $61.04 Difference: minus $13.74 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $77.14, suggesting upside of 26.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 246.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 399.3, implying annual growth of 213.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 181.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 220.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 862.1, implying annual growth of 115.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.86

Jarden rates ((PLS)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden incorporates into forecasts for Pilbara Minerals lower spodumene concentrate (SC6) pricing and weaker September quarter shipments, after reviewing Port Headland export data.

Spodumene concentrate (SC6) prices have fallen during the quarter from around US$3,700/t to circa US$2,500/t at the end of September, so the analysts note timing of shipments during the quarter becomes even more important than usual.

The broker forecasts a realised price of US$2,560/t for the 1Q. FY24 earnings (EBITDA) of around $1.39bn are now expected, -30% down from the prior estimate.

The target price falls to $3.42 from $3.50 and the Sell rating is unchanged.

This report was published on October 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.42 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.00, suggesting upside of 29.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of -32.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 9.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $20.28

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Perpetual reported minor 1Q inflows for the Asset Management division in a marked improvement over the around -$5bn of outflows in the prior quarter, notes Jarden. Overall, flows and funds under management (FUM) across the business were considered broadly in line.

In the near-term, the broker suspects flows will remain volatile due to uncertain global markets, and as the Pendal acquisition becomes integrated.

Among the asset managers, Perpetual remains Jarden's preferred exposure and the Overweight rating is retained. The target eases to $27.10 from $27.40.

This report was published on October 16, 2023.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $20.28 Difference: $6.82
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.95, suggesting upside of 28.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 183.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.2, implying annual growth of 180.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 184.20 cents and EPS of 213.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.8, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 178.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHJ    SHINE JUSTICE LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $0.74

Moelis rates ((SHJ)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis has reinitiated coverage on Shine Justice, noting the company is the number one player in personal injury law in Australia and operations are complimented by several new practice areas. 

The company is currently exiting a growth investment phase in pursuit of better cash conversion. The broker sees the company as well positioned for growth as it continues to progress 40 active class actions. 

The broker reinitiates with a Buy rating and a target price of 90 cents. 

This report was published on October 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.16
If SHJ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.93.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.28.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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