Weekly Reports | Nov 10 2023
This story features MADER GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAD
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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MADER GROUP LIMITED ((MAD)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Mader Group's September-quarter result appears to have pleased Moelis, and management reiterated FY24 guidance.
The company experienced strong growth in both its North American and Australian operations.
The company clsoed the quarter with net debt of $40.4m, down from $42.7m at June 30, thanks to strong cash flow and capital management.
Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price is steady at $7.65.
SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
While SiteMinder's share price declined -15% in the final two weeks of October, Wilsons has reiterated its belief that this should be considered an attractive entry point for investors despite broader market uncertainty.
The company not only exceeded the broker's first quarter revenue expectations, but also announced two new transactional products that Wilsons expects to support medium-term growth and free cash flow. The broker's confidence in the medium-term outlook is improving.
The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target price increases to $4.69 from $4.65.
TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED ((TCL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Goldman Sachs is feeling vindicated for its cautious position on traffic recovery as the work-from-home trend continues to limit upside and a new normal appears to have set in.
The broker observes that spreads have stabilised at lower levels, dampening upside, and that the rate outlook is improving, predicting US and Australian 10-year bond yields will ease by December 30.
Transurban Group's rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target price eases to $13.10 from $13.50.
Analyst coverage switches to Joseph Kusia from Niraj Shah.
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BASE RESOURCES LIMITED ((BSE)) Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity downgrades its rating for Base Resources to Speculative Buy from Buy after 1Q production of all products fell short of expectations.
Management switched to campaign processing at the mineral separation plant (MSP) in order to maximise recoveries, explain the analysts, resulting in extended plant shutdowns and a MSP feed which lagged production.
Bulk shipments overseas continued, notes Canaccord, and the stockpile will now take longer to build. A 70c target is set.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | MADER GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 2 | SITEMINDER LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Wilsons | |
| 3 | TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Goldman Sachs | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 4 | BASE RESOURCES LIMITED | Buy (Spec) | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABB | Aussie Broadband | $3.73 | Wilsons | 3.76 | 3.75 | 0.27% |
| AKE | Allkem | $9.24 | Goldman Sachs | 14.40 | 16.80 | -14.29% |
| ALC | Alcidion Group | $0.07 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.13 | 0.20 | -35.00% |
| ASG | Autosports Group | $2.34 | Jarden | 3.45 | 3.65 | -5.48% |
| BMT | Beamtree Holdings | $0.21 | Petra Capital | 0.60 | 0.64 | -6.25% |
| BXB | Brambles | $13.61 | Jarden | 15.90 | 16.00 | -0.62% |
| CIA | Champion Iron | $7.65 | Goldman Sachs | 7.20 | 7.00 | 2.86% |
| Jarden | 7.44 | 7.33 | 1.50% | |||
| COL | Coles Group | $15.48 | Goldman Sachs | 14.70 | 16.70 | -11.98% |
| Jarden | 15.90 | 15.70 | 1.27% | |||
| CRD | Conrad Asia Energy | $1.30 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.69 | 2.78 | -3.24% |
| CRN | Coronado Global Resources | $1.60 | Goldman Sachs | 1.95 | 2.20 | -11.36% |
| CWP | Cedar Woods Properties | $4.85 | Moelis | 5.40 | 5.80 | -6.90% |
| CXO | Core Lithium | $0.39 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.55 | 1.20 | -54.17% |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.37 | 0.44 | -15.91% | |||
| Jarden | 0.32 | 0.34 | -5.88% | |||
| Petra Capital | 0.59 | 0.60 | -1.67% | |||
| DDR | Dicker Data | $11.13 | Petra Capital | 11.21 | 10.26 | 9.26% |
| DRR | Deterra Royalties | $4.79 | Canaccord Genuity | 5.00 | 5.10 | -1.96% |
| DXI | Dexus Industria REIT | $2.58 | Moelis | 3.11 | 3.24 | -4.01% |
| EDV | Endeavour Group | $4.88 | Goldman Sachs | 6.40 | 6.60 | -3.03% |
| Jarden | 6.10 | 6.30 | -3.17% | |||
| EOS | Electro Optic Systems | $0.93 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.30 | N/A | – |
| EVO | Embark Early Education | $0.68 | Petra Capital | 1.05 | 0.90 | 16.67% |
| EVS | EnviroSuite | $0.07 | Moelis | 0.12 | 0.15 | -20.00% |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | $4.28 | Goldman Sachs | 5.00 | 5.25 | -4.76% |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals | $23.45 | Goldman Sachs | 16.30 | 16.20 | 0.62% |
| G1A | Galena Mining | $0.06 | Petra Capital | 0.26 | 0.27 | -3.70% |
| GEM | G8 Education | $1.01 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.37 | 1.42 | -3.52% |
| Moelis | 1.08 | 1.21 | -10.74% | |||
| GUD | G.U.D. Holdings | $11.17 | Wilsons | 12.66 | 13.04 | -2.91% |
| HVN | Harvey Norman | $3.71 | Jarden | 3.40 | 3.70 | -8.11% |
| IFL | Insignia Financial | $2.18 | Jarden | 2.50 | 3.15 | -20.63% |
| IGO | IGO | $9.26 | Goldman Sachs | 12.70 | 14.80 | -14.19% |
| Jarden | 13.46 | 14.70 | -8.44% | |||
| ING | Inghams Group | $3.91 | Goldman Sachs | 3.05 | 2.90 | 5.17% |
| Jarden | 3.90 | 3.56 | 9.55% | |||
| JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $46.41 | Goldman Sachs | 44.80 | 44.40 | 0.90% |
| Jarden | 40.20 | 41.00 | -1.95% | |||
| JRV | Jervois Global | $0.04 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.11 | 0.10 | 10.00% |
| LEL | Lithium Energy | $0.62 | Petra Capital | 1.90 | 1.96 | -3.06% |
| LGP | Little Green Pharma | $0.13 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.20 | 0.28 | -28.57% |
| LIN | Lindian Resources | $0.18 | Petra Capital | 0.61 | 0.66 | -7.58% |
| MEI | Meteoric Resources | $0.24 | Petra Capital | 0.42 | 0.40 | 5.00% |
| MGH | Maas Group | $3.52 | Wilsons | 3.75 | 3.83 | -2.09% |
| MP1 | Megaport | $10.41 | Goldman Sachs | 11.90 | 12.10 | -1.65% |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $3.73 | Goldman Sachs | 3.80 | 4.60 | -17.39% |
| Jarden | 4.80 | 4.70 | 2.13% | |||
| PNR | Pantoro | $0.04 | Petra Capital | 0.13 | 0.14 | -7.14% |
| PWR | Peter Warren Automotive | $2.34 | Jarden | 3.30 | 3.55 | -7.04% |
| QPM | Queensland Pacific Metals | $0.06 | Petra Capital | 0.24 | 0.28 | -14.29% |
| RMD | ResMed | $22.98 | Goldman Sachs | 32.00 | 33.00 | -3.03% |
| Jarden | 30.13 | 30.33 | -0.66% | |||
| Wilsons | 30.00 | 36.25 | -17.24% | |||
| RMS | Ramelius Resources | $1.65 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.90 | 1.80 | 5.56% |
| RSG | Resolute Mining | $0.37 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.95 | 1.00 | -5.00% |
| RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $3.85 | Goldman Sachs | 4.25 | 4.35 | -2.30% |
| Jarden | 3.95 | 4.38 | -9.82% | |||
| SDR | SiteMinder | $4.71 | Wilsons | 4.69 | 4.65 | 0.86% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $6.13 | Jarden | 6.57 | 6.50 | 1.08% |
| SGM | Sims | $12.92 | Jarden | 14.66 | 16.53 | -11.31% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $13.53 | Jarden | 15.25 | 15.15 | 0.66% |
| SYA | Sayona Mining | $0.09 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.22 | 0.25 | -12.00% |
| Petra Capital | 0.34 | 0.37 | -8.11% | |||
| TCL | Transurban Group | $12.61 | Goldman Sachs | 13.10 | 13.50 | -2.96% |
| TIE | Tietto Minerals | $0.58 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.45 | 0.40 | 12.50% |
| WZR | Wisr | $0.03 | Wilsons | 0.08 | 0.17 | -52.94% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
VHM VHM LIMITED
Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.48
Canaccord Genuity rates ((VHM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –
As the timeline for approval in Victoria is becoming clearer, Canaccord Genuity delays the development timeline for VHM's Goschen project by six months. Construction is now forecast to commence in the 1Q FY24, with first production by the 1Q FY25.
Should management execute on permitting, funding and offtake agreements, the broker expects the share price will trade higher from the current level.
A positive Environmental Effects Statement (EES) assessment for permitting is a key milestone, suggests the broker. With official notice now received, the EES can be placed on public exhibition for 30 days, commencing this month.
The target falls to $1.40 from $1.60 and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.
This report was published on November 1, 2023.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.923
If VHM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 194% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.85.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.70.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNR PANTORO LIMITED
Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.04
Petra Capital rates ((PNR)) as Buy (1) –
Pantoro continued to ramp up both the open pit and underground operations at Norseman in the Sep Q. After the slower than expected start, grades are improving, Petra Capital notes, and gold output is growing every month.
This trend expected to continue through the Dec Q as the underground delivers more tonnes and Scotia open pit pushes down into broader zones of better grade gold.
Operating leverage is significant, the broker notes, and with no further merger related costs and a robust A$ gold price environment, free cash flow will improve during FY24.
Petra sees significant re-rating potential over coming months as production stabilises and investor and corporate interest returns to this large and highly strategic asset. Buy retained, target rises to 13c from 12c.
This report was published on November 7, 2023.
Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.091
If PNR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.00.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.33.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED
Copper – Overnight Price: $6.18
Wilsons rates ((SFR)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –
Wilsons initiates coverage on Sandfire Resources with a 12-month target of $8.45, well above the average target price of $6.92 of six brokers covered daily in the FNArena database.
The broker points out Sandfire is one of the only (nearly) pure copper leveraged producers on the ASX. The company operates two assets – Matsa in Spain and Motheo in Botswana – with both considered high quality and operating in robust mining jurisdictions.
The analysts focus on Matsa in particular, which is the early stages of ramp-up towards a copper output of around 50ktpa.
Execution to-date has been first class, according to Wilsons, and it's felt the market is not fully appreciating potential value creation within Matsa and the broader Iberian Pyrite Belt.
Despite some market concerns, reserve life is not an issue, in the broker's view, and regional opportunities abound for co-operation
and consolidation, along with avenues for internal expansion. Overweight.
This report was published on October 31, 2023.
Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $2.27
If SFR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.93, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 91.18.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 613.0.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 44.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 3790.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SOM SOMNOMED LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.49
Wilsons rates ((SOM)) as Overweight (1) –
SomnoMed's 1Q revenues beat Wilsons forecast by 5% with a currency tailwind contributing to 6-7% constant currency growth across
Europe, the US and the APAC region.
Management also confirmed documentation for new product Rest Assure’s FDA 510(k) filing has been lodged.
A successful approval (perhaps early in 2024) would unlock oral appliance adoption, in the broker's view, as dentists and sleep
physicians will be provided with on-demand access to patient compliance and efficacy data.
The analysts anticipate the initial launch of Rest Assure in Europe later this year.
Overweight. Target $1.25.
This report was published on October 31, 2023.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.76
If SOM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSE - BASE RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAD - MADER GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SDR - SITEMINDER LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TCL - TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED