Daily Market Reports | Jan 17 2024
This story features EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 7378.00 | – 3.00 | – 0.04% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 7414.80 | – 81.50 | – 1.09% |
| S&P500 | 4765.98 | – 17.85 | – 0.37% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 14944.35 | – 28.41 | – 0.19% |
| DJIA | 37361.12 | – 231.86 | – 0.62% |
| S&P500 VIX | 13.92 | + 0.67 | 5.06% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.07 | + 0.12 | 2.94% |
| USD Index | 103.38 | + 0.78 | 0.76% |
| FTSE100 | 7558.34 | – 36.57 | – 0.48% |
| DAX30 | 16571.68 | – 50.54 | – 0.30% |
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck
Greg Peel will return later this month.
Global bond markets are winding back expectations for central bank pivots ("cash rate cuts") and this is being felt in other assets including equities, currencies and commodities.
This week's process started in Europe on Monday, while the US was enjoying a day off. Despite underwhelming GDP growth from the eurozone's dominant engine, Germany, ECB speakers Nagel and Holzmann both pushed back against too aggressive market expectations being priced in by overenthusiastic bond traders.
Traders in US Treasuries understood the message, which subsequently translated into weakness in US equity futures, which translated into more selling during yesterday's session in Australia. The Federal Reserve made sure the European message found some local support through Christopher Waller's speech on the economic outlook at The Brookings Institute, called ‘Almost as Good as it Gets, but will it last?’.
Waller's message might not be accurately labeled as 'hawkish', but it definitely wasn't as 'dovish' as market participants would have liked.
And thus US bond yields moved up, as did the US dollar, and equities retreated, as did crude oil, and precious metals gold and silver, leaving very little to boast about for base metals.
It wasn't all red on screen, as both chipmakers AMD and Nvidia had a positive session. Semiconductors are being touted as a potential outperforming sector for 2024. Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains poised to make more headlines too.
The local calendar has gold miner Evolution Mining ((EVN)) releasing quarterly production numbers. Share prices for gold companies globally are under the pump as market positioning for Fed rate cuts is proving too aggressive, at least in this week's context.
China will dump data relating to growth and industrial production today, the US is awaiting data insights on growth (Fed beige book), retail sales and industrial production later.
If SPI futures prove an accurate guide, most of the downward adjustment for the local index already happened yesterday. Iron ore bounced.
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 2032.80 | – 26.20 | – 1.27% |
| Silver (oz) | 23.12 | – 0.27 | – 1.15% |
| Copper (lb) | 3.77 | – 0.01 | – 0.26% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.00 | + 0.01 | 0.57% |
| Nickel (lb) | 7.18 | – 0.06 | – 0.81% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.15 | – 0.01 | – 0.59% |
| West Texas Crude | 72.23 | – 0.23 | – 0.32% |
| Brent Crude | 78.11 | – 0.01 | – 0.01% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 129.35 | + 1.85 | 1.45% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days…
| Index | 16 Jan 2024 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jan) | Quarter To Date (Jan-Mar) | Year To Date (2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 7414.80 | -1.11% | -2.32% | -2.32% | -2.32% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ALK | Alkane Resources | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett |
| BEN | Bendigo & Adelaide Bank | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| BHP | BHP Group | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| BOQ | Bank of Queensland | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| CHC | Charter Hall | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| GL1 | Global Lithium Resources | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| HLS | Healius | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| IFL | Insignia Financial | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| LOV | Lovisa Holdings | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| NWL | Netwealth Group | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| SUL | Super Retail | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| VCX | Vicinity Centres | Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
For more detail go to FNArena's Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
(Readers should note that all commentary, observations, names and calculations are provided for informative and educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views expressed are the author's and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website)
All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert specifically for The Overnight Report. Go to Portfolio and Alerts on the website and tick the box in front of The Overnight Report. You will receive an email alert every time a new Overnight Report has been published on the website.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: "Your Feedback (Thank You)" – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided. www.fnarena.com
FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On
Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms
CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN - EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED
