In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 19-01-24

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This story features SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Goldman Sachs is positive on base metals in 2024 and in particular expects price upside for copper as well aluminium and alumina.

The broker upgrades its rating for Sandfire Resources to Neutral from Sell and raises the target to $6.70 from $5.40 after assuming an additional three years of mine life at Motheo. The estimated mine life at Matsa was also extended.

Also relevant to Sandfire, the analysts are positive on fundamentals for zinc following recent mine supply cuts.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BGL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Investors should expect gold and gold equities to outperfom in 2024 is the explicit message from the latest sector update by analysts at Canaccord Genuity.

The key driver behind this forecast is the prospect of Fed rate cuts later in the year. Historical precedents saw average increases of 40% in the 12 months following the first cut, report the analysts, with both gold and gold equities outperforming the ASX300 and S&P500 in each case.

Canaccord Genuity has lifted its long term gold price forecast in USD from 2027 by 8.4% to US$2,341/oz. In AUD, the long term forecast has increased to A$3,345/oz.

On the ASX, the broker's sector favourites are Resolute Mining, Westgold Resources, Predictive Discovery and De Grey Mining.

For Bellevue Gold, the Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.85 from $1.75.

This report was published on January 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.325
If BGL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $13.99

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

With Brambles warning of moderating pallet price growth over the course of the financial year in the first quarter, Jarden believes the subsequent reaction may have been overdone as the market tries to determine whether the company was implying contractual price decline or a slowing rate of pricing growth.

The broker believes structural changes, notably more rational competition and price adjustments to better reflect cost-to-serve dynamic. Jarden also notes wood pallet costs are declining, and at a steeper rate than pallet prices.

The Overweight rating and target price of $15.90 are retained. Jarden sees considerable risk/reward emerging for investors.

This report was published on January 16, 2024.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $1.91
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.96, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.97 cents and EPS of 79.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 86.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $8.37

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

The iron ore market should be balanced in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs, driven by outperforming Chinese steel production and restrained scrap-based electric arc furnace (EAF) output.

The broker is also expecting a disappointing iron ore supply performance from both Australia and Brazil.

The analysts raise the target for Champion Iron to $9.20 from $8.30 and maintain a Buy rating.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $0.83
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 66.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.68.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.69 cents and EPS of 98.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs expects a supportive metallurgical coal market in 2024 due to strong Indian and Chinese demand, and ongoing supply risks from both Australia and Canada.

The broker's Buy rating for Coronado Global Resources is retained while the target rises to $2.00 from $1.95.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.275
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.17 cents and EPS of 25.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.66 cents and EPS of 19.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 30.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF    MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.32

Wilsons rates ((MVF)) as Overweight (1) –

A bumper month for stimulated cycles should benefit Monash IVF, with Medicare data showing November contained the highest monthly volume of cycles since the pandemic IVF boom, up 16.1% year-on-year.

The company is set to acquire Fertility North for -$12m, an established practice expected to generate around $9m in revenue annually. Wilsons expects minimal impact on FY24, but the purchase underpins a target price lift.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.45 from $1.43. The stock remains the only Overweight recommendation in Wilsons' healthcare services coverage.

This report was published on January 17, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $0.125
If MVF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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