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In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 09-08-24

Weekly Reports | Aug 09 2024

This story features CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CMM

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden raises its target for Capricorn Metals to $6.28 from $5.80 and upgrades to Buy from Overweight.

The broker sees a clearer pathway to material, low-risk but strong margin growth, and believes the expansion will proceed at Karlawinda.

A supportive macroeconomic backdrop for the gold price further strengthens the ananlyst’s view.

GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED ((GOR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis upgrades Gold Road Resources to Buy from Hold and raises the target price to $2.10 due to what is viewed as the “strategic” value of Gruyere and circa 17.3% stake in Dug Technology ((DUG)).

The company reported lower-than-expected 2Q24 gold production and management also decreased the FY25 guidance, the broker highlights.

Problems incurred from wet weather in the March quarter continued to impact into the June quarter and the analyst revises EPS estimates by -56.2% for FY24 and -4.25% for FY25.

Buy rated. $2.10 target.

NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Nickel Industries reported 4Q24 results which met the Canaccord Genuity’s analyst’s expectations but came in better than the market forecasts.

Higher than average rainfall impacted on RKEF resulting in the company using lower grade stockpiles, creating higher than anticipated cash costs.

Cash depletion was also higher than the broker expected.

Buy rating with 95c target maintained.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden is looking for any FY25 guidance changes for Saverglass and North America in the upcoming Orora FY24 results on August 15.

The Buy rating is retained with a change in the target price to $2.50 from $2.55.

POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PBH)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following 4Q results, Jarden upgrades its rating for PointsBet Holdings to Buy from Overweight on signs of stronger profitability going
forward. PointsBet remains the broker’s preferred wagering exposure under coverage on the ASX.

Momentum continues in Australia, note the analysts, while in Canada an impressive net win growth in sports betting was offset by lower-than-expected iGaming net win growth.

The 85c target price is maintained after the broker’s earnings forecast downgrades are matched by the positive impact of a valuation roll-forward.

Downgrade

EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED ((EHL)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Emeco Holdings to Overweight from Buy ahead of its FY24 result in response to the recent share price rally.

The broker says all eyes will be peeled to evidence of sustainability of strong pricing, following a robust earnings performance, and expects prudent capital expenditure guidance.

While all looks rosy, the broker remains cautious on Pit’n’Portal for now.

Target price falls to 90c from 95c.

LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Reacting to events several weeks ago, Jarden lowers its target for Lifestyle Communities to $11.70 from $15.00 and downgrades to Overweight from Buy.

The analysts anticipate near-term sales and settlements will remain under pressure until the courts offer a view on the current contract structure, which has attracted negative media coverage.

The broker feels share price weakness is overdone and still sees attractive medium-term growth from underlying demand plus a growing pipeline.

MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((MAH)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Macmahon to Overweight from Buy following a 45% rally for the shares in the past year.

The broker remains upbeat for FY25 expecting it to be a “transformative year”. Jarden observes an easing WA labour market and appreciates the low capital intensity of recent transaction, which reduces stranded-asset risk

EPS forecasts are steady for FY25; rise 3% for FY25; and 3% for FY26. Target price rises to 28c from 26c.

NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NWH)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades NRW Holdings to Overweight from Buy given the company’s recent share price run. Target price eases to $3.20 from $3.25.

Heading into the company’s FY24 result, the broker expects an in-line result given it has largely been pre-guided.

Hence, eyes will turn to FY25 guidance – the broker perceives the risk to be to the upside.

SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

In the wake of 4Q results for SiteMinder, Jarden lowers its target to $5.85 from $6.02 and downgrades to Overweight from Buy. It’s thought the market will require evidence of new product traction before rewarding investments in growth.

Regardless, the broker believes it is a strategically sound decision by management to reinvest free cash flow (FCF) in revenue growth, having attained free cash flow breakeven in Q4, while also maintaining a reasonable revenue growth rate.

Management reiterated its focus on achieving the 30% organic revenue growth target in the medium-term, which implies to the analysts increased opex investment.

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
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1 CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
2 GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED Buy Neutral Moelis
3 NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED Buy Sell Canaccord Genuity
4 ORORA LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
5 POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
Downgrade
6 EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
7 LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
8 MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
9 NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
10 SITEMINDER LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change
ANZ ANZ Bank $27.65 Goldman Sachs 29.10 28.15 3.37%
ASB Austal $2.35 Petra Capital 3.33 3.14 6.05%
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank $11.88 Goldman Sachs 11.41 10.51 8.56%
BGL Bellevue Gold $1.25 Canaccord Genuity 1.95 2.20 -11.36%
BMN Bannerman Energy $2.39 Canaccord Genuity 4.33 4.65 -6.88%
BMT Beamtree Holdings $0.27 Petra Capital 0.54 0.61 -11.48%
BSA BSA $1.08 Canaccord Genuity 1.40 1.25 12.00%
BVS Bravura Solutions $1.09 Wilsons N/A 1.43 -100.00%
CBA CommBank $129.11 Goldman Sachs 91.75 82.61 11.06%
Jarden 105.00 102.00 2.94%
CCP Credit Corp $15.21 Canaccord Genuity 20.70 20.90 -0.96%
CCR Credit Clear $0.28 Petra Capital 0.53 0.51 3.92%
CCX City Chic Collective $0.10 Canaccord Genuity 0.25 1.00 -75.00%
CIA Champion Iron $5.77 Goldman Sachs 7.60 8.00 -5.00%
Jarden 7.47 7.58 -1.45%
CMM Capricorn Metals $5.58 Jarden 6.28 5.31 18.27%
CRD Conrad Asia Energy $0.84 Canaccord Genuity 1.92 2.68 -28.36%
Wilsons 1.92 1.93 -0.52%
CSC Capstone Copper $8.64 Moelis 14.00 14.50 -3.45%
CU6 Clarity Pharmaceuticals $5.74 Wilsons 8.48 4.50 88.44%
EHL Emeco Holdings $0.81 Jarden 0.90 0.95 -5.26%
EXP Experience Co $0.14 Canaccord Genuity 0.25 0.33 -24.24%
FCL Fineos Corp $1.54 Goldman Sachs 1.90 1.95 -2.56%
FPH Fisher & Paykel Healthcare $30.13 Wilsons 35.00 30.00 16.67%
GOR Gold Road Resources $1.63 Canaccord Genuity 2.05 2.15 -4.65%
Goldman Sachs 2.05 2.10 -2.38%
Moelis 2.10 1.70 23.53%
HGO Hillgrove Resources $0.06 Canaccord Genuity 0.10 0.09 11.11%
HVN Harvey Norman $4.52 Goldman Sachs 4.60 4.30 6.98%
IAG Insurance Australia Group $6.99 Goldman Sachs 7.30 6.72 8.63%
IGO IGO $5.09 Canaccord Genuity 4.80 5.00 -4.00%
Goldman Sachs 6.75 7.15 -5.59%
IMD Imdex $2.14 Jarden 2.30 2.10 9.52%
INA Ingenia Communities $4.95 Goldman Sachs 4.60 4.40 4.55%
IPD ImpediMed $0.06 Wilsons 0.18 0.20 -10.00%
JBH JB Hi-Fi $66.41 Goldman Sachs 52.90 50.00 5.80%
JLG Johns Lyng $5.45 Canaccord Genuity 8.75 8.65 1.16%
LIC Lifestyle Communities $8.92 Goldman Sachs 12.00 18.45 -34.96%
Jarden 11.70 15.00 -22.00%
LRK Lark Distilling Co $0.89 Canaccord Genuity 1.20 1.60 -25.00%
Moelis 1.00 1.42 -29.58%
MAH Macmahon $0.28 Jarden 0.28 0.26 7.69%
MIN Mineral Resources $50.92 Jarden 44.70 47.20 -5.30%
MND Monadelphous Group $11.53 Jarden 13.80 14.45 -4.50%
MPL Medibank Private $3.81 Goldman Sachs 3.88 3.70 4.86%
NAN Nanosonics $3.00 Wilsons 4.00 3.45 15.94%
NEU Neuren Pharmaceuticals $17.09 Wilsons N/A 30.00 -100.00%
NIC Nickel Industries $0.76 Canaccord Genuity 0.95 0.85 11.76%
NST Northern Star Resources $13.80 Canaccord Genuity 18.65 19.15 -2.61%
Jarden 13.20 13.50 -2.22%
NWH NRW Holdings $3.10 Jarden 3.20 3.25 -1.54%
NXS Next Science $0.24 Wilsons 0.27 0.34 -20.59%
NXT NextDC $15.38 Canaccord Genuity 18.50 14.65 26.28%
Wilsons 19.41 20.07 -3.29%
ORA Orora $1.89 Goldman Sachs 2.70 3.00 -10.00%
ORG Origin Energy $10.40 Jarden 10.70 11.00 -2.73%
PEN Peninsula Energy $0.09 Canaccord Genuity 0.20 0.22 -9.09%
PMT Patriot Battery Metals $0.44 Canaccord Genuity 1.40 1.70 -17.65%
PMV Premier Investments $30.47 Goldman Sachs 26.00 25.10 3.59%
PNI Pinnacle Investment Management $16.42 Wilsons 19.70 14.10 39.72%
QPM Queensland Pacific Metals $0.03 Petra Capital 0.10 0.11 -9.09%
RED Red 5 $0.35 Moelis 0.58 0.50 16.00%
Petra Capital 0.45 0.46 -2.17%
RIO Rio Tinto $114.16 Goldman Sachs 136.00 136.10 -0.07%
RMD ResMed $32.52 Jarden 33.83 32.85 2.98%
Wilsons 40.25 36.00 11.81%
RMS Ramelius Resources $1.82 Canaccord Genuity 2.80 2.70 3.70%
RRL Regis Resources $1.56 Canaccord Genuity 2.30 2.50 -8.00%
SDR SiteMinder $5.09 Goldman Sachs 5.50 5.70 -3.51%
Jarden 5.85 6.02 -2.82%
Wilsons 7.20 6.50 10.77%
SFR Sandfire Resources $7.81 Canaccord Genuity 11.00 10.25 7.32%
Goldman Sachs 8.50 8.70 -2.30%
Jarden 9.10 9.00 1.11%
SUN Suncorp Group $16.25 Goldman Sachs 18.50 17.54 5.47%
SVR Solvar $1.10 Canaccord Genuity 1.50 1.55 -3.23%
SVW Seven Group $36.81 Goldman Sachs 41.80 42.10 -0.71%
SYR Syrah Resources $0.23 Jarden 0.66 0.71 -7.04%
TLX Telix Pharmaceuticals $17.48 Jarden 22.55 22.49 0.27%
Wilsons 22.00 20.00 10.00%
TNE TechnologyOne $20.82 Wilsons 22.28 19.31 15.38%
VGL Vista International $2.37 Canaccord Genuity 3.00 2.40 25.00%
VR8 Vanadium Resources $0.05 Petra Capital 0.16 0.21 -23.81%
WDS Woodside Energy $24.93 Goldman Sachs 33.00 31.30 5.43%
WES Wesfarmers $71.44 Goldman Sachs 69.20 68.80 0.58%
WGX Westgold Resources $2.66 Petra Capital 2.79 2.98 -6.38%
WTC WiseTech Global $87.19 Jarden 83.00 79.00 5.06%
Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change

More Highlights

ASB    AUSTAL LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies Overnight Price: $2.37

Petra Capital rates ((ASB)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital forecasts incremental revenue of $84m and an opportunity to enhance profit margins, after Austal announced a contract modification for the US Navy’s more LandingCraft Utility (LCU) program.

The number of units on order has increased to five from three. Austal has an option to build a total of 12 LCUs for the US Navy, with the overall value of this contract (including all options) set at US$379.7m, explains the broker.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target is increased to $3.33 from $3.14.

This report was published on August 6, 2024.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $2.37 Difference: $0.96
If ASB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 20.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 161.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMT    BEAMTREE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Healthcare services Overnight Price: $0.23

Petra Capital rates ((BMT)) as Buy (1)

Beamtree Holdings has released unaudited FY24 results. High points for Petra Capital include achieving a positive operating profit and
an impressive performance from the international business.

This was offset by weaker growth in recurring revenue as the company invested resources in the consulting business to establish a large pipeline of downstream subscription licence revenue opportunities.

This should set Beamtree up for FY25, when Petra expects to see the pipe convert into higher recurring revenues and earnings. The broker remains supportive of the company with its IP holding universal appeal in a globally significant market.

Target falls to 54c from 61c, Buy retained.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.305
If BMT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 130% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.75.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSA    BSA LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $0.95

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BSA)) as Buy (1)

Due to a favourable mix of work in the Telecommunications segment, explains Canaccord Genuity, BSA delivered a 4Q earnings (EBITDA) margin of 9.2%, up from 8.8% in the prior quarter.

FY24 underlying earnings of $22.2m beat the broker’s forecast of $20.4m. Litigation settlements have now been fully paid and management is targeting double-digit earnings margins in the medium-term.

Management also announced two new contracts: a renewal with Foxtel; and additional work with the NSW Telco Authority.

Canaccord raises its target to $1.40 from $1.25. Buy.

This report was published on July 31, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.45
If BSA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.76.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.31.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $14.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity acknowledges the challenging year Credit Corp experienced in FY24 including the change in amortisation policy to 8 from 6 years for the public debt ledger.

FY25 looks to be off to an improved start, the broker believes, with over 70% of the US purchases secured and FY25 net profit guidance of 11%-23% growth.

Some minor adjustments are made by Canaccord Genuity to EPS forecasts. Unchanged Buy rating and a tweak in the target price to $20.70 from $20.90.

This report was published on July 31, 2024.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $14.98 Difference: $5.72
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.6, implying annual growth of 69.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.5, implying annual growth of 27.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCR    CREDIT CLEAR LIMITED

Diversified Financials Overnight Price: $0.28

Petra Capital rates ((CCR)) as Buy (1)

Credit Clear provided FY24 guidance which Petra Capital believes the company generated a “strong finish” to the year, including five quarters of positive cash flow generation.

The broker likes the larger customer acquisition strategy which is beginning to produce revenues for the company.

Petra Capital increases FY24 forecasts to meet guidance and upgrades EPS forecasts for FY25 on the back of an improved growth outlook.

The target price lifts to 53c from 51c. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.245
If CCR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 285.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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CHARTS

CMM DUG EHL GOR LIC MAH NIC NWH ORA PBH SDR

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CMM - CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DUG - DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EHL - EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GOR - GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIC - LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAH - MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NIC - NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWH - NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORA - ORORA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SDR - SITEMINDER LIMITED