Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 11, 2024

This story features AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIZ   AND   APE   ASL   BKT   BRG   CAR   CMM   COE   CWY   DHG   HGO   HVN   IFT   JBH   LOT   NXG   NXL   QPM   REA   SEK   SMR   VIT  

AIZ    AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.51

Jarden rates ((AIZ)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden assesses a “weak” FY24 result for Air New Zealand which included a deteriorating 2H implying an -$8m (NPBT) loss, excluding $45m of covid credits.

Management attributed weakness to soft domestic demand (notably corporate and government), ongoing engine issues, US carrier competition, as well as inflationary pressures. 

The company expects conditions will remain similar through H1 FY25. Given ongoing uncertainty, management didn’t provide earnings guidance.

The total dividend for FY24 was 3.5cps.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ57c from NZ60c due to the broker’s lower earnings forecasts and a higher assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Current Price is $0.51. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.48 cents and EPS of 2.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.04.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.68 cents and EPS of 4.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.52.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AND    ANSARADA GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.49

Canaccord Genuity – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on September 10, 2024.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity observes Australian vehicle sales were down -8.7% in August as the industry continues to resolve demand/supply impacts from covid.

The broker believes there is still an order backlog of an estimated 250k cars which is anticipated to boost sales into 2025.

With Eagers Automotive’s exposure to Toyota which has one of the highest backlogs, the analyst doesn’t envisage the company will have any issues with revenue in the near-term.

Margins, on the other hand, remain important to the share price performance, the broker states. Hold rating with $11 target price.

This report was published on September 4, 2024.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.03 Difference: $0.97
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.89, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 96.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.7, implying annual growth of -16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 87.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.5, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASL    ANDEAN SILVER LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.99

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ASL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity expects Andean Silver to announce an updated resource report later this month with the existing silver equivalent resource to rise to 70-80moz versus around 50moz currently.

The company’s target is 100moz. Speculative Buy rating, $2.50 target.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $0.99 Difference: $1.51
If ASL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 153% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKT    BLACK ROCK MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((BKT)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights the signing of the “long-awaited binding agreement between Black Rock Mining and POSCO including a US$20m investment into Black Rock Mining for the Mahenge graphite mine.

POSCO has committed to an offtake for Module 2 fine graphite of 30ktp.a. with a minimum 20ktp.a. and Module 2 a 12-year term plus three five-year extensions, the broker notes.

Black Rock Mining has US$200m of US$308m in funds for capex required for Module 1.

Buy rating unchanged with a 21c target price.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.156
If BKT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 289% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $34.36

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden suggests the largest beneficiaries from the replacement cycle for retail appliances, after a large uptick in units sold during covid, will be Breville Group, Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, and the Wesfarmer’s-owned Officeworks.

The analysts explain the replacement cycle has long been a driver of sales in the electronics sector, the result of new technology, new products and obsolescence.

The broker believes Breville and Harvey Norman are the best way to access this theme due to attractive multiples, large skews to IT and high levels of operating leverage.

The Neutral rating is retained for Breville Group. The broker’s target is $26.30. Breville is also expected to benefit by way of new product development and geographical expansion.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $34.36 Difference: minus $8.06 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.17, suggesting downside of -3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 95.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.7, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 105.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.7, implying annual growth of 13.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CAR GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $37.45

Jarden rates ((CAR)) as Underweight (4) –

Following the reporting season, Jarden highlights consensus EPS revisions across FY25-27 were downwards to varying degrees for the four main online classifieds companies. On the other hand, valuation multiples have risen for all except Domain Holdings Australia.

Rather than volumes, the broker suggests an ability to grow yield is the key driver of long-term value for online classifieds businesses, noting yield growth was strong across FY24 for all four, and well ahead of inflation.

The analysts expect yields will continue to grow well above the rate of inflation for REA Group, CAR Group, Seek and Domain, demonstrating the pricing power across these exposures.

Jarden raises its target for CAR Group by 12% to $31.25 to reflect higher long-term revenue and EPS assumptions. The Underweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $31.25 Current Price is $37.45 Difference: minus $6.2 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.48, suggesting upside of 3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 74.10 cents and EPS of 92.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.6, implying annual growth of 47.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 80.60 cents and EPS of 100.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.44

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity assesses the FY24 results from Capricorn Metals with revenues meeting forecasts and EBITDA below expectations due to higher operating costs.

The company finished the year with cash/bullion of $125m and a net cash position of $75m with no hedging until Dec quarter 2025.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance of 100-120koz at all-in-sustaining-costs of $1370-$1470/oz with capex of -$10-$20m.

Buy rating remains. Target price cut to $6.50 from $6.60 accounting for the update.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $1.06
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.30, suggesting upside of 12.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 41.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of -11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COE)) as Buy (1) –

According to the latest AEMO data, Canaccord Genuity highlights Cooper Energy’s net gas production is averaging 71tj/d in the quarter-to-date which is related to the increased production from Orbost.

The analyst believes this is very encouraging and may result in guidance being lifted to the upper end of the current range.

Gas spot prices are up 17% on the previous corresponding period because of supply issues including at Longford.

Buy rating with 30c price target maintained.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.12
If COE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 50.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 180.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.5, implying annual growth of 212.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.78

Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden revisits the investment case for Cleanaway Waste Management several weeks after FY24 results.

Potentially providing a superior earnings/margin mix, the broker notes management is increasingly focusing on commercial and industrial (C&I) waste contracts and away from municipal solid waste (MSW).

Also, upon further investigation by the analysts, near-term concerns about increased competition in the Solid Waste Services business now appear conservative.

The Neutral rating and $3.05 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.27
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.60 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 32.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 26.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $2.87

Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Following the reporting season, Jarden highlights consensus EPS revisions across FY25-27 were downwards to varying degrees for the four main online classifieds companies. On the other hand, valuation multiples have risen for all except Domain Holdings Australia.

Rather than volumes, the broker suggests an ability to grow yield is the key driver of long-term value for online classifieds businesses, noting yield growth was strong across FY24 for all four, and well ahead of inflation.

The analysts expect yields will continue to grow well above the rate of inflation for REA Group, CAR Group, Seek and Domain, demonstrating the pricing power across these exposures.

Jarden lowers its target for Domain Holdings Australia to $3.35 from $3.40, but upgrades to Buy from Overweight following recent share price underperformance.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.48
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 32.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.05

Wilsons rates ((HGO)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage on Australia’s most recently listed copper producer, Hillgrove Resources, with an Overweight rating and 8 cent target price. The broker highlights compelling near-term positive cashflow and significant mine-life/resource upside potential.

Management has transitioned the Kanamantoo copper-gold asset in South Australia to a smaller-scale underground mine from the prior open cut operation, explain the analysts. Commercial copper production recommenced this year.

Wilsons also points out Hillgrove has significant franking credits available, which could enable the distribution of over $50m in fully franked dividends at the appropriate time.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.032
If HGO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.43.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HVN    HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $4.61

Jarden rates ((HVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden suggests the largest beneficiaries from the replacement cycle for retail appliances, after a large uptick in units sold during covid, will be Breville Group, Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, and the Wesfarmer’s-owned Officeworks.

The analysts explain the replacement cycle has long been a driver of sales in the electronics sector, the result of new technology, new products and obsolescence.

The broker believes Breville and Harvey Norman are the best way to access this theme due to attractive multiples, large skews to IT and high levels of operating leverage.

The Neutral rating is retained for Harvey Norman. Target $4.60.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 18.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.6, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFT    INFRATIL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $11.08

Jarden rates ((IFT)) as Overweight (2) –

While the sale of Airtrunk to the Blackstone-led private equity consortium is relevant to Infratil’s majority stake in Canberra Data Centres (CDC), greater disclosure around media reported multiples for the deal is needed, suggests Jarden.

Nonetheless, a large appetite has been confirmed for quality data centre assets, which materially lifts the chance of CDC re-rating on upcoming capital raises or a new partner entry, according to the broker.

Overweight rating is maintained and the broker’s target price rises to NZ$12.20 from NZ$11.40 on a higher assumed multiple.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Current Price is $11.08. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.37 cents and EPS of 1.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 632.42.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.38 cents and EPS of 7.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 158.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $81.35

Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden suggests the largest beneficiaries from the replacement cycle for retail appliances, after a large uptick in units sold during covid, will be Breville Group, Harvey Norman, JB Hi-Fi, and the Wesfarmer’s-owned Officeworks.

The analysts explain the replacement cycle has long been a driver of sales in the electronics sector, the result of new technology, new products and obsolescence.

The broker believes Breville and Harvey Norman are the best way to access this theme due to attractive multiples, large skews to IT and high levels of operating leverage.

Jarden is more cautious on JB Hi-Fi, given competition via marketplaces and Amazon, as well as the currently elevated valuation. Sell. Target $64.80.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $64.80 Current Price is $81.35 Difference: minus $16.55 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $69.62, suggesting downside of -13.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 405.7, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 277.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 319.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.24

Petra Capital rates ((LOT)) as Buy (1) –

Lotus Resources reported two offtake agreements, Petra Capital highlights, including Curzon Uranium for 0.7mlbs and a $15m unsecured debt facility, as well as 0.8mlbs from PSEG Nuclear a North American utility, subject to conditions.

The analyst estimates the 1.5mlb offtake agreements represent around 20% of annual production from 2026 to 2029.

Buy rating with a 37c target price unchanged.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.13
If LOT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 120.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXG    NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $8.01

Petra Capital rates ((NXG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes NexGen Energy’s Rook 1 project is the best underdeveloped uranium project globally, however the company does not have permits which means production is unlikely until FY30, the analyst states.

Management has guided to FY28 production with recent drilling results pointing to another deposit with equivalent ultra high-grade core.

The broker attaches a 30% premium to the net present value and target price, as it is not believed the asset will stay under control of a junior developer.

Buy rated. Target price $12.15.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $8.01 Difference: $4.14
If NXG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXL    NUIX LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $4.94

Petra Capital rates ((NXL)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights the investor day at Royal Randwick racecourse was a well-attended event for Nuix and reflects the growing interest in the company and renewed interest in AI.

The main discussions were around how Nuix’s NEO product was employing cognitive AI to “differentiate” the data search and filter processes, which has improved the efficacy of the service and the granularity of data.

Legal technology company Consilio entered the domestic market with the Lawyers On Demand acquisition and has entered a strategic partnership with Nuix to use its products, another plus the broker highlights.

Buy rating unchanged. The broker lifts the target price to $5.43 from $4.75.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $5.43 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $0.49
If NXL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 89.82.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QPM    QUEENSLAND PACIFIC METALS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.03

Petra Capital rates ((QPM)) as Buy (1) –

Queensland Pacific Metals has announced non-binding term sheets for the restructure of its Moranbah Gas Project agreements with Ratch Australia and Palisade from July 1, 2025.

Petra Capital assesses the new contracts will allow for a reduction in fixed costs of -83% or some $50m in savings in exchange for an excess profit-sharing agreement. The analyst estimates it at around $40m-$50mp.a. in revenue foregone at a “steady state”.

The agreements are believed to add some protection to earnings on the downside and assist the balance.

Buy rating and 10c target price remain.

This report was published on September 6, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.07
If QPM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $202.48

Jarden rates ((REA)) as Sell (5) –

Following the reporting season, Jarden highlights consensus EPS revisions across FY25-27 were downwards to varying degrees for the four main online classifieds companies. On the other hand, valuation multiples have risen for all except Domain Holdings Australia.

Rather than volumes, the broker suggests an ability to grow yield is the key driver of long-term value for online classifieds businesses, noting yield growth was strong across FY24 for all four, and well ahead of inflation.

The analysts expect yields will continue to grow well above the rate of inflation for REA Group, CAR Group, Seek and Domain, demonstrating the pricing power across these exposures.

Jarden raises its target for REA Group by 4% to $170 following the sale of PropertyGuru and a small increase to the broker’s FY25 volume assumption.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $170.00 Current Price is $202.48 Difference: minus $32.48 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $218.46, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2236.40 cents and EPS of 426.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 426.5, implying annual growth of 86.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 258.50 cents and EPS of 486.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 504.0, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 280.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $23.02

Jarden rates ((SEK)) as Buy (1) –

Following the reporting season, Jarden highlights consensus EPS revisions across FY25-27 were downwards to varying degrees for the four main online classifieds companies. On the other hand, valuation multiples have risen for all except Domain Holdings Australia.

Rather than volumes, the broker suggests an ability to grow yield is the key driver of long-term value for online classifieds businesses, noting yield growth was strong across FY24 for all four, and well ahead of inflation.

The analysts expect yields will continue to grow well above the rate of inflation for REA Group, CAR Group, Seek and Domain, demonstrating the pricing power across these exposures.

Seek remains Jarden’s top pick in the space as the market is currently ignoring management’s FY28 revenue aspiration, in the broker’s view. The Buy rating and $26.60 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $23.02 Difference: $3.58
If SEK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.70 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 30.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMR    STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.65

Petra Capital rates ((SMR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes the Stanmore Resources acquisition of the other 50% of the Isaac South deposit is another smart, low-cost M&A transaction for the company.

The mine life at Isaac Plains complex has the potential to be extended to 15 years from three to four years currently, at a run rate of 4mt per annum which the analyst estimates would add 7% to the net present value of the company.

The Buy rating is retained with $5.32 target price, down by -5% due to updated lower coal price forecasts.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $5.32 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $2.67
If SMR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 101% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.14 cents and EPS of 41.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.43.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.99.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VIT    VITURA HEALTH LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.08

Petra Capital rates ((VIT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Petra Capital responded to the Vitura Health trading update with a dose of scepticism, highlighting the analyst would like to see tangible evidence of a turnaround before changing earnings forecasts.

In the first two months of FY25, the business is trading ahead of budget with 10% revenue growth and an increase in the EBITDA margin.

The broker is seeking price stabilisation and more durable price improvements post what has been a very competitive medicinal cannabis distribution environment.

The Speculative Buy rating and 12c target are unchanged.

This report was published on September 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.04
If VIT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.71.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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