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In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 18-10-24

Weekly Reports | Oct 18 2024

This story features AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED ((AIA)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Auckland International Airport has completed a NZ$1.4bn capital raising which Jarden views as sufficient to support the company’s NZ$6.6bn planned aeronautical investment program and capex, with the NZ Commerce Commission’s draft PSE4 pricing report also supportive.

The company has signed an -NZ$800m contract for the development of the domestic jet terminal building as part of the NZ$2.2bn project.

Jarden raises net profit forecasts by 8% to 12% for FY25 to FY27 on the back of lower interest expenses. EPS estimates are essentially unchanged for FY26/FY27.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a higher target price of NZ$7.79, up from NZ$7.59.

SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden is ever more confident SiteMinder is one of the “higher quality tech” companies in the Small Ordinaries index as the optimal channel manager for small to medium sized hotels.

The analyst stresses a high level of confidence in the company’s new products succeeding due to a robust market positioning and fit, a positive track record for adding new products and net new transaction product adds increasing to 630 per month from around 350 per month in the past three years.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target price lifts to $7.48 from $5.89. Jarden believes consensus is not adequately including the potential for significant revenue growth from new products.

Downgrade

NUIX LIMITED ((NXL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Petra Capital downgrades Nuix to a Hold from Buy due to the strong price appreciation since coverage was initiated in July.

Momentum has been assisted with investor events in Sydney, London and Nashville with an introduction to cognitive Ai in the new NEO product offering, the broker explains.

Nuix guided to a rise in annualised contract values for FY25 of around 15% in August, above market expectations. NEO sales were also revealed as positive with 23 licenses of $12.1m in contract value accretion.

Hold with a rise in the target price to $6.73 from $5.43.

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.

The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.

Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.

Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Origin Energy, Jarden forecasts flat APLNG production, with lower domestic gas volumes partly offsetting higher LNG production and sales volumes.

The target falls to $9.90 from $10. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation following a 7.5% rally in share price over the past five weeks, explains Jarden.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons notes Sandfire Resources’ share price has rallied 35% since the broker upgraded the company to Overweight in late July.

A rebound in copper prices and an improving reputation for reliability of delivery are believed to be factors for the rally.

Sandfire Resources is due to report 1Q25 results on Oct 29. Wilsons anticipates another solid quarter, including copper production of 27kt.

The stock is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight with a target price of $9.90. Further Chinese stimulus is acknowledged as a potential upside risk.

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
Upgrade
1 AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED Buy Neutral Jarden
2 SITEMINDER LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
Downgrade
3 NUIX LIMITED Neutral Buy Petra Capital
4 ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy Jarden
5 SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED Neutral Buy Wilsons

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change
29M 29Metals $0.49 Canaccord Genuity 0.35 0.32 9.37%
ADT Adriatic Metals $4.03 Canaccord Genuity 4.90 5.50 -10.91%
AGL AGL Energy $11.54 Goldman Sachs 11.50 11.30 1.77%
ALD Ampol $29.29 Goldman Sachs 32.30 35.60 -9.27%
Goldman Sachs 32.90 35.60 -7.58%
ALK Alkane Resources $0.55 Moelis 0.75 0.70 7.14%
Petra Capital 1.04 1.00 4.00%
ANZ ANZ Bank $31.75 Goldman Sachs N/A 29.45 -100.00%
ASB Austal $3.19 Petra Capital 3.14 3.23 -2.79%
ASL Andean Silver $1.23 Canaccord Genuity 2.85 2.50 14.00%
BBN Baby Bunting $1.95 Wilsons 2.20 2.10 4.76%
BEN Bendigo & Adelaide Bank $12.24 Goldman Sachs N/A 11.67 -100.00%
BGL Bellevue Gold $1.49 Canaccord Genuity 2.25 1.95 15.38%
BOQ Bank of Queensland $6.95 Goldman Sachs N/A 5.54 -100.00%
BPT Beach Energy $1.24 Goldman Sachs 1.26 1.44 -12.50%
Jarden 1.34 1.55 -13.55%
CBA CommBank $142.23 Goldman Sachs N/A 94.80 -100.00%
CMM Capricorn Metals $6.40 Canaccord Genuity 7.60 6.50 16.92%
COE Cooper Energy $0.20 Jarden 0.26 0.25 4.00%
CXO Core Lithium $0.11 Goldman Sachs 0.09 0.08 12.50%
CYL Catalyst Metals $3.32 Canaccord Genuity 4.00 2.60 53.85%
DEG De Grey Mining $1.39 Canaccord Genuity 2.85 2.45 16.33%
DMP Domino’s Pizza Enterprises $36.99 Petra Capital 34.40 34.00 1.18%
EMR Emerald Resources $4.27 Canaccord Genuity 5.00 4.50 11.11%
EVN Evolution Mining $5.07 Canaccord Genuity 5.00 4.50 11.11%
Canaccord Genuity 5.20 4.50 15.56%
FMG Fortescue $19.53 Jarden 16.81 16.83 -0.12%
FWD Fleetwood $2.09 Moelis 2.20 2.09 5.26%
GMD Genesis Minerals $2.27 Canaccord Genuity 3.75 3.15 19.05%
GOR Gold Road Resources $1.89 Canaccord Genuity 2.35 2.05 14.63%
HUB Hub24 $66.65 Jarden 49.50 47.30 4.65%
Moelis 67.92 53.85 26.13%
IGO IGO Ltd $5.42 Goldman Sachs 6.40 6.35 0.79%
IPL Incitec Pivot $3.09 Goldman Sachs 3.30 3.35 -1.49%
IPX Iperionx $3.45 Canaccord Genuity 4.65 3.60 29.17%
JDO Judo Capital $1.91 Goldman Sachs N/A 1.71 -100.00%
KAR Karoon Energy $1.47 Goldman Sachs 2.03 2.20 -7.73%
Jarden 2.10 2.20 -4.55%
KCN Kingsgate Consolidated $1.58 Canaccord Genuity 3.40 2.90 17.24%
LNW Light & Wonder $140.88 Goldman Sachs 172.20 190.00 -9.37%
LOT Lotus Resources $0.30 Canaccord Genuity 0.54 0.52 3.85%
LTR Liontown Resources $0.83 Canaccord Genuity 0.90 1.05 -14.29%
Goldman Sachs 0.95 1.15 -17.39%
MAC Metals Acquisition $18.57 Canaccord Genuity 22.00 26.00 -15.38%
MIN Mineral Resources $46.31 Goldman Sachs 45.00 43.00 4.65%
MLX Metals X $0.44 Canaccord Genuity 0.48 0.30 60.00%
MQG Macquarie Group $236.17 Goldman Sachs N/A 194.47 -100.00%
NAB National Australia Bank $39.23 Goldman Sachs N/A 34.24 -100.00%
NIC Nickel Industries $0.96 Canaccord Genuity 1.00 0.85 17.65%
NST Northern Star Resources $17.15 Canaccord Genuity 22.05 18.75 17.60%
NWL Netwealth Group $27.82 Jarden 20.00 18.20 9.89%
NXL Nuix $6.62 Petra Capital 6.73 5.43 23.94%
OBM Ora Banda Mining $0.75 Canaccord Genuity 0.74 0.65 13.85%
ORA Orora $2.54 Jarden 2.70 2.50 8.00%
ORG Origin Energy $10.02 Goldman Sachs 10.45 10.75 -2.79%
Jarden 9.90 10.00 -1.00%
ORI Orica $18.12 Goldman Sachs 21.40 N/A
PDI Predictive Discovery $0.27 Canaccord Genuity 0.50 0.45 11.11%
PLL Piedmont Lithium $0.17 Canaccord Genuity 0.35 0.60 -41.67%
PLS Pilbara Minerals $2.70 Canaccord Genuity 3.90 4.00 -2.50%
PRU Perseus Mining $2.89 Canaccord Genuity 4.15 3.80 9.21%
PTM Platinum Asset Management $1.20 Goldman Sachs 0.95 1.00 -5.00%
Jarden 0.92 0.94 -2.13%
RIO Rio Tinto $117.69 Goldman Sachs 137.90 136.60 0.95%
RMS Ramelius Resources $2.40 Canaccord Genuity 3.20 2.80 14.29%
RRL Regis Resources $2.64 Canaccord Genuity 2.55 2.05 24.39%
RSG Resolute Mining $0.84 Canaccord Genuity 1.85 1.55 19.35%
RXL Rox Resources $0.14 Canaccord Genuity 0.55 0.51 7.84%
SDR SiteMinder $6.74 Jarden 7.48 5.89 26.99%
SMI Santana Minerals $2.08 Canaccord Genuity 3.40 3.00 13.33%
SPR Spartan Resources $1.52 Canaccord Genuity 1.70 1.20 41.67%
STO Santos $6.95 Goldman Sachs 8.00 8.65 -7.51%
Jarden 8.00 8.10 -1.23%
TCG Turaco Gold $0.34 Canaccord Genuity 0.70 0.65 7.69%
TLX Telix Pharmaceuticals $21.55 Wilsons 25.00 22.00 13.64%
VEA Viva Energy $2.90 Goldman Sachs 3.50 3.60 -2.78%
WAF West African Resources $1.63 Canaccord Genuity 3.60 3.15 14.29%
WBC Westpac $32.54 Goldman Sachs N/A 25.84 -100.00%
WDS Woodside Energy $24.87 Goldman Sachs 27.20 31.70 -14.20%
WEB WEB Travel $4.22 Goldman Sachs 6.70 N/A
Jarden 7.10 7.70 -7.79%
Wilsons 5.17 9.59 -46.09%
WGX Westgold Resources $3.06 Canaccord Genuity 4.30 3.50 22.86%
Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change

More Highlights

CYL    CATALYST METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $2.94

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CYL)) as Speculative Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity highlights gold and gold equities have consistently outperformed during quantitative easing cycles, noting recent actions by central banks in the US, the ECB, Bank of Canada, and Swiss National Bank.

The broker lists other positives for the gold price including increasing ETF inflows, rising US debt levels, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts.

Canaccord’s long-term US$ gold price forecast (from 2030) rises by 9% to US$2,963/oz and across 2024-29 estimates rise by 10% on average.

However, less than 50% of the 19 producers under research coverage by the broker will produce meaningful free cash flow in the September quarter, somewhat lessening the impact of record gold prices.

Across Canaccord’s research coverage of intermediate/junior producers target prices rise by 17% on average.

For Catalyst Metals, the broker’s target rises to $4.00 from $3.30. Speculative Buy.

This report was published on October 10, 2024.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $1.06
If CYL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining Overnight Price: $0.35

Moelis rates ((CNB)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)

Moelis begins research coverage of copper and gold developer Carnaby Resources with a Buy rating and 86c target price.

Management is targeting projects throughout Australia with copper, gold and lithium deposits. Currently the flagship asset is the Greater Duchess Project, approximately 70km southeast of Mt Isa, with in an in situ resource of over 300kt of copper equivalent.

The point of difference for this project, according to Moelis, is a low up front capital requirement as well as relative speed to production.

Modelling points to a low upfront capital requirement to establish an initial open pit mine followed by underground mining, highlights the analyst.

Management’s intention is to rail ore directly to Glencore’s Mt Isa copper concentrator and process under a toll treating arrangement
for an initial period of nine years.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.505
If CNB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 142% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel Overnight Price: $5.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1)

The analysts at Goldman Sachs believe the recent bounce in lithium company share prices has run ahead of commodity fundamentals.

Due to the number of lithium projects still ramping-up through 2024 and into 2025, the broker continues to factor in near-term pricing weakness.

On a 12-month view, IGO Ltd remains the only positive free cash flow (FCF) stock under Goldman’s lithium coverage.

Leading into quarterly operational reporting, the broker maintains a Buy rating, while the target rises to $6.40 from $6.35. It’s felt Greenbushes will perform broadly in line with expectations though nickel may be weaker.

This report was published on October 10, 2024.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.43 Difference: $0.97
If IGO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.73, suggesting upside of 3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 90.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 1981.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 71.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of 213.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals Overnight Price: $3.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPX)) as Speculative Buy (1)

After signing a binding 45-month supply contract beginning next year, Iperionx is expected to earn around US$11m in revenue with Ford Motor Company for manufactured titanium metal components, explains Canaccord Genuity.

In the broker’s view, this contract win de-risks the investment case for Iperionx by providing a material validation of management’s commercialisation plans. The target is raised to $4.65 from $3.60. Speculative Buy.

The analysts see potential for Iperionx to become a supplier to the US Army/Navy/Airforce.

Last August, the company received a significant funding boost from the US Department of Defence under the Defence Production Act (DPA) Title III to address vulnerabilities in the titanium supply chain.

This report was published on October 10, 2024.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $1.09
If IPX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 356.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 89.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $0.70

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SMP)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity initiates research on full-service EFTPOS provider SmartPay with a Buy rating.

As per thr broker, the company holds a leading and relatively mature position in the New Zealand terminal rental market but management expects to launch a vertically integrated payments product in New Zealand during the December quarter.

In FY21, SmartPay also expanded into the Australian processing market in partnership with Cuscal.

Shares in SmartPay are unjustifiably trading near 12-month lows, in Canaccord’s view, especially when considering embedded growth optionality in New Zealand.

A $1.40 target price is set.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.7
If SMP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.69.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.41.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences Overnight Price: $21.23

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1)

Wilsons takes a deep dive into Telix Pharmaceuticals’ glioma assets since the company IPO’ed with an estimated total addressable market of US$3.18bn for TLX101 which is targeting approval in recurrent glioblastoma initially before addressing newly diagnosed disease.

The broker believes Telix Pharmaceuticals is setting up its glioma therapies PiXCLARA and TLX01 as a “re-run” of the US prostate cancer market with PSMA,

Overweight retained. Target price is upgraded 14% to $25.

This report was published on October 16, 2024.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $21.23 Difference: $3.77
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 109.43.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 93.52.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $0.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TYR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage with a Buy rating for Tyro Payments, the fifth-largest merchant acquiring bank in Australia which provides payment solutions to 71,000 merchants via more than 115,000 terminals. A target of $1.65 is set.

Recently moving into profitability, Tyro Payments has reported a five-year gross profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, notes the broker. Management targets a FY26 EBITDA/gross profit margin of 29% on gross profit growth of 11%.

Uniquely, the company has a banking licence and is the only specialised payment provider in Australia able to provide its own banking products, including interest-bearing deposits and loans, highlights Canaccord.

This report was published on October 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.835
If TYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 85.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -38.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of 53.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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AIA NXL ORG SDR SFR

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA - AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXL - NUIX LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SDR - SITEMINDER LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR - SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED