Weekly Reports | Oct 18 2024
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED ((AIA)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Auckland International Airport has completed a NZ$1.4bn capital raising which Jarden views as sufficient to support the company's NZ$6.6bn planned aeronautical investment program and capex, with the NZ Commerce Commission's draft PSE4 pricing report also supportive.
The company has signed an -NZ$800m contract for the development of the domestic jet terminal building as part of the NZ$2.2bn project.
Jarden raises net profit forecasts by 8% to 12% for FY25 to FY27 on the back of lower interest expenses. EPS estimates are essentially unchanged for FY26/FY27.
Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral with a higher target price of NZ$7.79, up from NZ$7.59.
SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden is ever more confident SiteMinder is one of the "higher quality tech" companies in the Small Ordinaries index as the optimal channel manager for small to medium sized hotels.
The analyst stresses a high level of confidence in the company's new products succeeding due to a robust market positioning and fit, a positive track record for adding new products and net new transaction product adds increasing to 630 per month from around 350 per month in the past three years.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target price lifts to $7.48 from $5.89. Jarden believes consensus is not adequately including the potential for significant revenue growth from new products.
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NUIX LIMITED ((NXL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Petra Capital downgrades Nuix to a Hold from Buy due to the strong price appreciation since coverage was initiated in July.
Momentum has been assisted with investor events in Sydney, London and Nashville with an introduction to cognitive Ai in the new NEO product offering, the broker explains.
Nuix guided to a rise in annualised contract values for FY25 of around 15% in August, above market expectations. NEO sales were also revealed as positive with 23 licenses of $12.1m in contract value accretion.
Hold with a rise in the target price to $6.73 from $5.43.
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker's Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Origin Energy, Jarden forecasts flat APLNG production, with lower domestic gas volumes partly offsetting higher LNG production and sales volumes.
The target falls to $9.90 from $10. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation following a 7.5% rally in share price over the past five weeks, explains Jarden.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons notes Sandfire Resources' share price has rallied 35% since the broker upgraded the company to Overweight in late July.
A rebound in copper prices and an improving reputation for reliability of delivery are believed to be factors for the rally.
Sandfire Resources is due to report 1Q25 results on Oct 29. Wilsons anticipates another solid quarter, including copper production of 27kt.
The stock is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight with a target price of $9.90. Further Chinese stimulus is acknowledged as a potential upside risk.
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