ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Enter the company code or Name for stock analysis:

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities

Year End: June

GICS Industry Group : Utilities

Debt/EBITDA: 1.83

Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE	CHANGE +/-	CHANGE %	VOLUME
$10.67 28 Mar 2025	-0.040 OPEN $10.60	-0.37% HIGH $10.73	1,835,515 LOW $10.60

TARGET

$10.68

0.1% upside

Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%

OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .

FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Title	FY23 Actual	FY24 Actual	FY25 Forecast	FY26 Forecast
EPS (cps)	xxx	81.1	88.3	xxx
DPS (cps)	xxx	680.0	55.5	xxx
EPS Growth	xxx	32.3%	8.8%	xxx
DPS Growth	xxx	100.0%	- 91.8%	xxx
PE Ratio	xxx	N/A	12.1	xxx
Dividend Yield	xxx	N/A	5.2%	xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%)	xxx	838.3%	62.9%	xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 107.42%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD

Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
EPS Basic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	81.1
DPS All	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	680.0
Sales/Revenue	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	16,076.0 M
Book Value Per Share	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	552.4
Net Operating Cash Flow	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2,382.0 M
Net Profit Margin	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	8.69 %

EPS Basic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

DPS All

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Sales/Revenue

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Book Value Per Share

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Operating Cash Flow

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Net Profit Margin

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Return on Capital Employed	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	15.20 %
Return on Invested Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	11.29 %
Return on Assets	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	7.09 %
Return on Equity	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	15.20 %
Return on Total Capital	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	10.46 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	955.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Invested Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Assets

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Equity

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Return on Total Capital

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Short-Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	68 M
Long Term Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	3,310 M
Total Debt	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	3,378 M
Goodwill - Gross	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	2,091 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1,379 M
Price To Book Value	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	1.97

Short-Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Long Term Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Total Debt

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Goodwill - Gross

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Price To Book Value

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Title	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Capex	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	653.0 M
Capex % of Sales	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	4.06 %
Cost of Goods Sold	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	14,094 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	673 M
Research & Development	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	-
Investments - Total	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	xxx	7,917 M

Capex

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Capex % of Sales

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Cost of Goods Sold

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Research & Development

Investments - Total

Negative
Growth
Slowing

Negative

Growth

Slowing

EXPERT VIEWS
EXTRA COVERAGE

EXPERT VIEWS

Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.4

No. Of Recommendations

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Ord Minnett	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Macquarie	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Citi	14/02/2025	1	Buy	$11.50	7.78%	Citi highlights Origin Energy is due to deliver 30 APLNG cargoes that were prepaid from 2018, translating to fewer cargoes sold into the spot market for half a decade. The broker notes the market hasn't included this in earnings estimates, but at the Japan/Korea Marker forward curve, there is an estimated impact of around 16cps on the company's net present value. Regarding dividends, Citi believes an under-geared balance sheet can accommodate the foregone cargoes and production decline. Citi points to factors such as energy market earnings coming in at the upper end of guidance in FY25 and battery storage systems coming on stream in 2H26. On suggestion made is investors should consider a "progressive" dividend policy as the way to think about the stock. The broker raises FY25 EPS by 32% to reflect the accounting treatment of APLNG and lowers FY26 EPS by -13% on margin assumptions on Octopus. No change to $11.50 target price or Buy rating. FORECAST Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 93.10 cents. Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 62.20 cents and EPS of 50.40 cents.
UBS	xx/xx/xxxx	1	xxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Morgan Stanley	xx/xx/xxxx	5	xxxxxxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial

Access Stockbroker Research History >

EXTRA COVERAGE

Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET	COMMENTARY
Jarden	xx/xx/xxxx	3	xxxxxxx	$xx.xx	xx.xx%	Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only. Login above or Get a Free Trial
Goldman Sachs	17/02/2025	3	Neutral	$10.30	-3.47%	Origin Energy's 1H25 EBITDA was -7% below Goldman Sachs' forecast and net profit was -6% lower, primarily impacted by lower Octopus earnings. On the positive side, the company declared an interim dividend of 30c which was 7% above the broker's estimate. Origin maintained energy markets' FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.1-1.4bn but with confidence for delivering towards the top end of the range. Octopus' guidance was reduced by -$100m as the business invests in energy services business, installing heat pumps in the UK. The broker revised FY25-26 EBITDA forecasts by -2% each, adjusting for lower near-term Octopus earnings. Target price rises to $10.3 from $10.2 reflecting higher near-term energy markets' earnings. Neutral retained. FORECAST Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents. Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.

BROKER

DATE

RATING

RECOMMENDATION

TARGET PRICE

% TO REACH TARGET

COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Goldman Sachs

17/02/2025

Neutral

$10.30

-3.47%

Origin Energy's 1H25 EBITDA was -7% below Goldman Sachs' forecast and net profit was -6% lower, primarily impacted by lower Octopus earnings.

On the positive side, the company declared an interim dividend of 30c which was 7% above the broker's estimate.

Origin maintained energy markets' FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.1-1.4bn but with confidence for delivering towards the top end of the range.

Octopus' guidance was reduced by -$100m as the business invests in energy services business, installing heat pumps in the UK.

The broker revised FY25-26 EBITDA forecasts by -2% each, adjusting for lower near-term Octopus earnings. Target price rises to $10.3 from $10.2 reflecting higher near-term energy markets' earnings. Neutral retained.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.

Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ORG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ORG

1	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Mar 27, 2025 Mar 27 2025 - Daily Market Reports

2	ESG Focus: Fund Flows, Tariffs, Defence & AI Mar 20 2025 - ESG Focus

3	Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Mar 17, 2025 Mar 17 2025 - Daily Market Reports

4	In Brief: Telcos, Gaming & Building Materials Mar 14 2025 - Weekly Reports

5	Rudi’s View: Post February Conviction Calls Mar 13 2025 - Rudi's View

Latest Infrastructure & Utilities News

1	Rudi’s View: To Sell Or Not To Sell Mar 06 2025 - Rudi's View

2	AGL Energy: Data Centres To The Rescue? Nov 07 2024 - Australia

3	Origin Energy Surprises To The Downside Aug 20 2024 - Australia

4	Uptrend In Place For Origin Energy Jul 30 2024 - Technicals

5	Can Gentrack Live Up To Its Shareprice? Jul 11 2024 - Small Caps

6	AGL Energy Shares Eyeing $12 Target Jun 25 2024 - Technicals

7	Next Week At A Glance – 10-14 Jun 2024 Jun 07 2024 - Weekly Reports

8	ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 15-11-2023 Nov 15 2023 - ESG Focus

9	ESG Focus: ESG-Linked Remuneration Now In Focus Oct 19 2023 - ESG Focus

10	Book Excerpt: Need To Know About Investing In Infrastructure Jun 09 2023 - Book Reviews

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :	63.73
Estimated Dividend Growth (Average Of Past Three Years)	%
Amount Invested	$
Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years

	Yield	Yield on investment
This Year
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year

Get 2 Weeks free trial

Sign Up

Member Login

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart