ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
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ORG

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.83
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$10.55

20 Feb
2025

-0.150

OPEN

$10.63

-1.40%

HIGH

$10.79

3,250,125

LOW

$10.55

TARGET
$10.68 1.2% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 81.1 88.3 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 680.0 55.5 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 32.3% 8.8% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 91.8% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 12.1 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.2% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 838.3% 62.9% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 118.06%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 63.85

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx81.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx680.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16,076.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx552.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,382.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.69 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.29 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.09 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.46 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx955.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,310 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,378 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,091 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,379 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx653.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.06 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,094 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx673 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,917 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.4

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

14/02/2025

1

Buy

$11.50

9.00%

Citi highlights Origin Energy is due to deliver 30 APLNG cargoes that were prepaid from 2018, translating to fewer cargoes sold into the spot market for half a decade.

The broker notes the market hasn't included this in earnings estimates, but at the Japan/Korea Marker forward curve, there is an estimated impact of around 16cps on the company's net present value.

Regarding dividends, Citi believes an under-geared balance sheet can accommodate the foregone cargoes and production decline.

Citi points to factors such as energy market earnings coming in at the upper end of guidance in FY25 and battery storage systems coming on stream in 2H26.

On suggestion made is investors should consider a "progressive" dividend policy as the way to think about the stock.

The broker raises FY25 EPS by 32% to reflect the accounting treatment of APLNG and lowers FY26 EPS by -13% on margin assumptions on Octopus.

No change to $11.50 target price or Buy rating.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 93.10 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 62.20 cents and EPS of 50.40 cents.

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Jarden

17/02/2025

3

Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight

$10.25

-2.84%

Further to the first half results from Origin Energy, which were in line with Jarden's estimates, the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.

The broker was surprised by the unchanged guidance for emerging markets EBITDA despite the positive first half performance and does factor in higher earnings through the forecast period.

The target is reduced to $10.25 from $10.45, largely related to APLNG, where Jarden still awaits answers on the near-term production outlook and whether reserves are impacted.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 82.50 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 69.50 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ORG STOCK CHART

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Feb 14 2025 - Australia
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