ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
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ORG

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.83
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$10.86

02 May
2025

0.220

OPEN

$10.63

2.07%

HIGH

$10.86

2,329,642

LOW

$10.59

TARGET
$10.692 -1.5% downside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 81.1 91.2 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 680.0 59.4 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 32.3% 12.4% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 91.3% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 11.7 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.6% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 838.3% 65.1% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 95.64%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 63.97

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx81.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx680.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16,076.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx552.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,382.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.69 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.29 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.09 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.46 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx955.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,310 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,378 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,091 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,379 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx653.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.06 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,094 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx673 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,917 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.4

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

01/05/2025

1

Buy

$11.50

5.89%

Origin reported a solid 3QFY25 operational update according to Citi. Generation fleet reliability supported electricity sales around 2% above the broker's expectations, while natural gas sales exceeded forecasts by 5%.

Citi remains positive on gross margins in the Energy Markets segment. APLNG faced production issues from Cyclone Alfred and eastern field underperformance, both well-flagged, yet remains on track to meet FY25 management guidance of 670–690PJ, the analyst believes.

APLNG revenue was circa -6% below Citi’s forecast due to cargo timing and softer domestic gas pricing.

Citi views a deferral of part of FY25 APLNG distributions into FY26 was misinterpreted by the market, leading to unwarranted share price pressure.

The analyst sees this timing shift as incrementally positive, with around $93m more cash versus consensus, while preserving fully-franked dividend capacity. Kraken’s growth remains ahead of schedule, with its 100m customer target likely pre-2027.

Progress at Yanco Delta includes secured transmission access and on-track Bess construction.

Citi lowers FY25 EPS forecast by -3.7% and raises FY26 by 3.7%. Buy rating maintained. Target $11.50.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 92.20 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 62.20 cents and EPS of 65.40 cents.

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Jarden

05/05/2025

3

Neutral

$10.25

-5.62%

Origin Energy's 3Q25 APLNG revenue missed Jarden's forecast by -4%, but electricity sales proved 1% higher. Octopus Energy continued its positive growth momentum with 0.2m rise in UK customers q/q and 0.5m rise internationally.

The company flagged no further distributions from APLNG in 4Q, and the broker reckons the deferral to FY26 may be done so the dividend can be fully franked.

FY25 guidance was unchanged, and the FY26 guidance included a comment 75% of expected coal volume was fully contracted or hedged at prices in line with FY25. The broker lowered FY26 coal cost estimate to $159/t from $169/t.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 7.3% mainly on lower tax expense, and FY26 raised by 4.5% on higher gas sales.

Neutral. Target increases to $10.25 from $10.00.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 89.30 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 68.50 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

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