In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 25-10-24

This story features BEACH ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity highlights Beach Energy reported a “solid” 1Q25 result, compared to a lacklustre previous nine months.

Production rose 10% and sales revenue grew 4% on the previous quarter to $427m. Net debt declined by -$28m and Waitsia guidance was retained. First gas is anticipated in early 2025.

Beach Energy is upgraded to Hold from Sell on valuation grounds with an unchanged target price of $1.25.

LITTLE GREEN PHARMA LIMITED ((LGP)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity notes 1Q25 results for Little Green Pharma could be considered a “watershed” moment, whereby the company reported revenue growth, falling operating expenses and its first positive free cash flow.

These results support the de-risking of the stock, resulting in the analyst lifting revenue and margin forecasts with the elimination of a net debt position.

Target price is raised to 21c from 17c. The stock is upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold.

METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED ((MAC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis believes Metals Acquisition’s Q3 production report was “solid” with lots of progress being made to increase production and lower costs.

The broker believes the company is on track to meet its guidance for 2025, with potential upside for 2026.

The commencement of a separate mining area at QTS South Upper will in due course add both tonnes and grade to the feed blend, the broker adds.

The recent drop in the share price has triggered an upgrade to Buy from Hold. Target price has improved to $25 which, the broker highlights, makes the shares look cheap.

MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((MHJ)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden upgrades its rating for Michael Hill to Buy from Overweight after an update for the first 14 weeks of FY25 revealed improving trading momentum across all markets.

Sales growth accelerated to 4.3% year-on-year from the 3.2% run-rate reported in the first eight weeks of FY25.

The analysts believe the company has passed an inflection point by returning to positive sales and margin growth and see upside risk to the broker’s near-term earnings forecasts.

Jarden’s target price rises to NZ80c from NZ78c.

Downgrade

DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((DHG)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden raises target prices for the four online classified stocks under the broker’s research coverage after updating forecasts for recent listing volumes data and to reflect the analysts’ lower risk-free rate assumptions.

The broker’s target for Domain Holdings Australia rises by 10c to $3.45 and the rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy after a strong recent share price performance.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

While still under-penetrated relative to the US, China, and the UK, highlights Goldman Sachs, Australia’s online retail penetration reached 11% in FY24, including 7% for supermarkets.

Supported by an expanded range and improved supply chain/last mile infrastructure, the broker anticipates online sales will outstrip offline growth, and reach around 12% for supermarkets by FY30.

For Metcash, Goldman downgrades to Sell from Neutral on market share erosion both in supermarkets and hardware. An acquisition-led strategy is also expected to lower the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) measure.

The target falls to $3.10 from $3.70.

SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFX)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Sheffield Resources reported production at its Thunderbird mineral sands project was -11-14% below expectations, despite throughput being 3% ahead of forecast.

Petra Capital observes no zircon sales were made during the quarter due to weak market conditions, leading to revenue of $24m, significantly below the broker’s forecast of $63m.

A $14m prepayment from the JV partner is expected to provide short-term liquidity. As a result, the broker has downgraded the price target to $0.28 from $0.57 and reduced its NPV estimate.

Sheffield Resources has been downgraded to Hold from Buy. 

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	BEACH ENERGY LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Canaccord Genuity
2	LITTLE GREEN PHARMA LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Canaccord Genuity
3	METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Moelis
4	MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Jarden
Downgrade
5	DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Jarden
6	METCASH LIMITED	Sell	Neutral	Goldman Sachs
7	SHEFFIELD RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Petra Capital

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change
AD8	Audinate Group	$8.67	Canaccord Genuity	10.50	12.00	-12.50%
			Moelis	9.45	10.50	-10.00%
AOV	Amotiv	$10.92	Wilsons	12.71	12.69	0.16%
ARB	ARB Corp	$41.76	Wilsons	50.27	47.85	5.06%
BGL	Bellevue Gold	$1.65	Goldman Sachs	1.80	1.70	5.88%
BMN	Bannerman Energy	$3.20	Petra Capital	4.68	4.51	3.77%
BOQ	Bank of Queensland	$6.66	Jarden	6.20	6.00	3.33%
BPT	Beach Energy	$1.31	Canaccord Genuity	1.25	1.50	-16.67%
			Jarden	1.35	1.34	0.75%
CAR	CAR Group	$37.61	Jarden	32.75	31.25	4.80%
CGF	Challenger	$6.05	Goldman Sachs	7.82	8.00	-2.25%
			Jarden	8.10	7.90	2.53%
COE	Cooper Energy	$0.19	Canaccord Genuity	0.31	0.30	3.33%
COL	Coles Group	$18.31	Goldman Sachs	19.10	18.00	6.11%
DHG	Domain Holdings Australia	$3.07	Jarden	3.45	3.35	2.99%
DSE	Dropsuite	$4.04	Petra Capital	3.98	3.65	9.04%
DUG	Dug Technology	$1.93	Canaccord Genuity	3.20	3.50	-8.57%
			Wilsons	3.23	4.11	-21.41%
EBR	EBR Systems	$1.06	Wilsons	1.62	1.50	8.00%
EVN	Evolution Mining	$5.25	Goldman Sachs	4.50	4.05	11.11%
EVT	EVT Ltd	$11.13	Jarden	12.29	12.46	-1.36%
FLT	Flight Centre Travel	$16.11	Jarden	23.70	24.60	-3.66%
			Wilsons	22.29	28.56	-21.95%
GDF	Garda Property	$1.21	Moelis	1.66	1.63	1.84%
GDG	Generation Development	$3.45	Moelis	3.91	3.33	17.42%
GMD	Genesis Minerals	$2.49	Canaccord Genuity	3.80	3.75	1.33%
			Moelis	2.70	2.65	1.89%
IDX	Integral Diagnostics	$3.16	Jarden	3.67	2.83	29.68%
IMD	Imdex	$2.64	Canaccord Genuity	2.67	2.25	18.67%
IPH	IPH	$5.47	Goldman Sachs	7.50	8.25	-9.09%
LGP	Little Green Pharma	$0.16	Canaccord Genuity	0.21	0.17	23.53%
MAC	Metals Acquisition	$18.35	Moelis	25.00	23.00	8.70%
MGH	Maas Group	$4.79	Wilsons	5.59	4.91	13.85%
MTS	Metcash	$3.23	Goldman Sachs	3.10	3.70	-16.22%
NCK	Nick Scali	$14.53	Jarden	15.88	16.52	-3.87%
			Wilsons	17.30	17.40	-0.57%
OBM	Ora Banda Mining	$0.92	Canaccord Genuity	0.85	0.74	14.86%
			Moelis	0.81	0.67	20.90%
OCC	Orthocell	$0.68	Petra Capital	1.32	1.28	3.13%
OFX	OFX Group	$1.38	Canaccord Genuity	2.20	2.60	-15.38%
			Wilsons	2.11	2.60	-18.85%
ORA	Orora	$2.52	Goldman Sachs	N/A	2.75	-100.00%
PPS	Praemium	$0.66	Moelis	0.80	0.75	6.67%
PPT	Perpetual	$20.48	Jarden	22.70	22.35	1.57%
QOR	Qoria	$0.41	Canaccord Genuity	0.55	0.50	10.00%
			Wilsons	0.55	0.45	22.22%
REA	REA Group	$230.98	Jarden	177.00	170.00	4.12%
RIO	Rio Tinto	$118.78	Goldman Sachs	136.20	137.90	-1.23%
S32	South32	$3.74	Goldman Sachs	3.90	3.60	8.33%
SEK	Seek	$25.86	Jarden	28.00	26.60	5.26%
SFX	Sheffield Resources	$0.24	Petra Capital	0.28	0.57	-50.88%
SMR	Stanmore Resources	$3.12	Petra Capital	5.33	5.32	0.19%
STO	Santos	$6.95	Goldman Sachs	7.90	8.00	-1.25%
			Jarden	7.90	8.00	-1.25%
TWE	Treasury Wine Estates	$11.82	Jarden	14.10	14.60	-3.42%
WDS	Woodside Energy	$24.30	Jarden	26.80	26.60	0.75%
WOW	Woolworths Group	$33.24	Goldman Sachs	38.90	40.10	-2.99%
XRF	XRF Scientific	$1.64	Canaccord Genuity	1.75	1.30	34.62%
Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change

More Highlights

AOV    AMOTIV LIMITED

Automobiles & Components Overnight Price: $10.89

Wilsons rates ((AOV)) as Overweight (1)

Wilsons assesses a broadly neutral AGM trading update by Amotiv. The target edges up to $12.71 from $12.69.

The broker highlights Wear & repair’ segments remain resilient, partly offset by softness in New Zealand, and the Caravan/RV and 4WD/SUV segments.

Management announced a share buyback of up to 5% of shares on issue, which is expected to commence from November 6. 

Wilsons suggests investors are yet to reward management’s efforts to rapidly deleverage the balance sheet with a higher share price. The Overweight rating is retained.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $12.71 Current Price is $10.89 Difference: $1.82
If AOV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 19.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 89.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.8, implying annual growth of 21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 98.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.9, implying annual growth of 10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium Overnight Price: $3.34

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BMN)) as Speculative Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity notes Bannerman Energy continues to progress at its Etango-8 development in Namibia with the aim of a positive final investment decision in 2025.

After completing the construction of water supply and site access road, the company is now moving to the next phase of the path towards contract awards. Management continues to assess various debt funding and potential offtake and JV opportunities.

Speculative Buy rating and $4.33 target retained. 

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $4.33 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.99
If BMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.29.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil Overnight Price: $0.19

Canaccord Genuity rates ((COE)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity highlights a boost in Orbost production of 22% in 1Q25 with the “unthinkable” happening: Cooper Energy is looking at de-bottlenecking opportunities.

The broker notes higher production permitted the company to generate increased spot sales at slightly higher prices.

Forecast production increases which places Canaccord Genuity at the upper end of the guidance range, the analyst highlights.

Target price lifts to 31c from 30c. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.12
If COE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 39.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 95.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 225.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $11.00

Jarden rates ((EVT)) as Buy (1)

EVT Ltd’s 1Q Hotel earnings were robust while Thredbo’s were weak, observes Jarden, as management flagged at FY24 results. Overall, 1Q earnings (EBITDA) fell by -30.2% year-on-year, but only by -4% compared to Q1 FY19.

When the broker assumes admissions recover to 90% of FY19 levels by FY27, Jarden’s estimate for total shareholder returns increases to 35%. This scenario conservatively ignores management’s success in increasing yield per admit, note the analysts.

The broker is upbeat on the outlook citing two of the company’s three segments are at cyclical lows for earnings and these are expected to improve, while cinemas’ box office profile is looking increasingly positive.

Buy rated. The target falls to $12.29 from $12.46.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $12.29 Current Price is $11.00 Difference: $1.29
If EVT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 21.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.93.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $16.37

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Buy (1)

When Flight Centre Travel’s Q1 update is viewed in combination with Web Travel’s ((WEB)) recent update, Jarden believes it would be incorrect to conclude the competitive backdrop is getting tougher.

Management stated Q1 underlying pre-tax profit was up marginally’ on the $63m in the previous corresponding period.

The broker believes margins for the group will improve but not to the extent of achieving the 2% stretch profit (PBT) margin target.

One quarter does not establish a trend, the analysts remind investors, highlighting the business remains a leaner, higher return on invested capital (ROIC) business post covid, with potential upside from market share gains

Target falls to $23.70 from $24.60. Buy retained.

This report was published on October 21, 2024.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $16.37 Difference: $7.33
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 45.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 130.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.1, implying annual growth of 102.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 150.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs Overnight Price: $1.14

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1)

Garda Property has announced the sale of its industrial development site at North Lakes for $114.0m. The deal has several conditions attached, but these are anticipated to be satisfied by Q4 of FY25.

Moelis comments this deal allows Garda Property to reduce gearing to 22% (assuming all goes well). It is noted the deal has been concluded at a -2.4% discount to the independent on-completion value of $116.8m.

The broker notes it is the intention to make a one-off special distribution to assist security holders with the tax associated with the capital gain from the sale of North Lakes.

The broker also makes the point asset sales are materially accretive to earnings given proceeds will be used to retire most, if not all of the REIT’s variable debt facilities.

Buy. Target lifts to $1.66. EPS and DPS forecasts made a small jump.

This report was published on October 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.525
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.69.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDG    GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $3.44

Moelis rates ((GDG)) as Buy (1)

Generation Development’s market update showed yet again solid growth from Lonsec with new product growth underpinned by the continuing expansion of the private market offerings from fund managers, Moelis comments.

The broker highlights Funds under Management (FUM) is now at $42m, with sales increasing 28% quarter-on-quarter.

The better-than-projected performance has triggered upgrades to forecasts. The suggesting is made that M&A should be expected to add extra momentum.

Buy rating retained. The target price has improved to $3.91.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.47
If GDG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.10 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.54.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.06.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal Overnight Price: $5.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1)

After the analysts at Goldman Sachs allow for the Bereskin & Parr acquisition and associated equity raise, the target for IPH falls by -9% to $7.50.

While the equity raising helps reduce debt it also opens the opportunity to pursue M&A in adjacencies, notes Goldman. Management has previously flagged this potential including the chance to enter a new secondary market.

After recent share price underperformance, the broker suggests the current valuation is compelling for a stable, cash-generative business with solid mid-single-digit organic EPS growth and an attractive dividend yield. Buy.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.48 Difference: $2.02
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 45.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of 86.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services Overnight Price: $4.75

Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1)

Potential for sustained earnings growth at Maas Group has been confirmed by the analysts at Wilsons after further analysis of metrics for return on capital (ROC), gearing and free cash flow (FCF).

The broker’s target rises to $5.59 from $4.91 benefiting from a roll-forward in Wilsons base year forecast to FY26. Overweight.

For the Construction Material segment, by way of example, the broker’s forecasts imply a return on capital employed (RoCE) uplift of circa 600bps by FY27, which includes benefit from volume growth, price increases and asset synergies.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $5.59 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.84
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.32.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 37.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $0.64

Moelis rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1)

A better-than-expected trading update by Praemium has triggered upgrades to Moelis’s forecasts. More Funds under Administration are combining with stronger account growth at Scope.

Moelis highlights Praemium remains on track to meet its forecast of circa 20% CAGR in EPS growth from FY24-FY27. FY25, which is the current financial year, is seen as the year of inflection.

OneVue is expected to add $3m to the growth profile through cost synergies. Buy rating retained with a 80c price target, up from 75c.

This report was published on October 23, 2024.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.165
If PPS meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.24.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWL    RUBICON WATER LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.28

Wilsons rates ((RWL)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1)

Wilsons begins with an Overweight rating in new research coverage on water management solution provider Rubicon Water which aims to improve water efficiency for the agriculture sector.

The broker not only likes the favourable global thematic associated with water security, but also Rubicon’s market-leading product solutions, along with evidence of a more balanced business model.

Changes to the business model over the past year include a greater product range (FarmConnect) and a broadened geographic mix (US market is emerging), as well as greater supply chain flexibility.

A 41c target is set.

This report was published on October 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.13
If RWL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.47.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMR    STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal Overnight Price: $3.10

Petra Capital rates ((SMR)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital comments Stanmore Resources reported a strong quarterly production result, with all operations exceeding expectations.

Saleable production of 3.8Mt was up 10% quarter-on-quarter, beating the broker’s forecast by 9%. The broker believes the company remains on track to exceed its 2024 guidance, supported by higher-than-expected ROM stocks and no further capex projects in 2025.

The price target has slightly increased to $5.33 from $5.32. Financial forecasts have been updated, reflecting a modest increase in 2024 output but a -2% reduction in the 2025 coal price forecast. Buy.

This report was published on October 23, 2024.

Target price is $5.33 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $2.23
If SMR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.19 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.89.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.78.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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