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In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 08-11-24

Weekly Reports | Nov 08 2024

This story features INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IDX

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED ((IDX)) Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden reports Integral Diagnostics showed strong revenue growth in Q1, with Australian organic revenue up by 7.9%.

This outcome exceeds the broker’s forecast of 6.5% for 1H25 but slightly trails Medicare benefits growth of 11.2% in Integral-weighted states.

New Zealand operations also performed well, with revenue growth of 10.2%, supported by specific contracts reintroducing indexation, explain the analysts.

The broker views the impending merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)) favourably, noting potential synergies and benefits from the company’s telehealth platform.

Jarden raises its 2025 EPS forecast by 8.8% and adjusts the target price to $3.72 from $3.67, anticipating the merger will be approved in December 2024. Buy.

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IONEER LIMITED ((INR)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Underpinned by the recent long-awaited award of the final federal permit for the Rhyolite Ridge project, ioneer shares have roughly doubled since August. With attention now turning to the next phase, Wilsons believes newsflow is likely to turn negative in the near term.

Accordingly, the broker makes estimate changes which have driven a -33% cut in target price to 20c, and double-downgrades its
rating on the stock to Underweight from Overweight.

The key potential negatives upcoming are the updated project economics, for which Wilsons expects a significant increase in capex, and material risk to the potential financing arrangements which ioneer has in place to fund that capex.

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden has downgraded James Hardie Industries to an Overweight rating from Buy and lowered the target price to $52.00 from $54.00 due to heightened short-term earnings risks.

The analyst points to the US housing market outlook which has softened, with affordability concerns and interest rate volatility affecting buyer sentiment, especially in key regions like Texas and Florida.

Rising commodity costs, notably pulp and cement, are further pressuring the company’s margins.

Jarden lowers FY25 net income forecast to the lower end of management’s guidance range.

Despite short-term headwinds, Jarden remains positive on the company’s long-term growth potential, citing a strong position in the US repair and remodel market and an under-levered balance sheet.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Lynas Rare Earths’ September quarter results show NdPr/REO production of 1.67kt/3.6kt, respectively, which are aligned with forecasts, but sales lagged due to a weaker product mix, Canaccord Genuity highlights.

Revenue reached $128m, below consensus due to slower Kalgoorlie ramp-up and capex impacts from the Mt Weld expansion.

Despite a recent 20% increase in NdPr prices, Canaccord Genuity notes Lynas continues to match production to demand, moderating Kalgoorlie’s ramp to complete the expansion by mid-2025. 

Target price lifts to $7.50 from $7.40. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds.

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker
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1 INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED Buy Buy Jarden
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2 IONEER LIMITED Sell Buy Wilsons
3 JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC Buy Buy Jarden
4 LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED Neutral Buy Canaccord Genuity

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change
A11 Atlantic Lithium $0.23 Wilsons 0.85 1.05 -19.05%
AGN Argenica Therapeutics $0.76 Petra Capital 1.15 1.14 0.88%
ALQ ALS Ltd $14.80 Jarden 14.25 14.20 0.35%
AMN Agrimin $0.14 Canaccord Genuity N/A 0.89 -100.00%
APX Appen $2.13 Canaccord Genuity 2.35 1.20 95.83%
ASB Austal $3.40 Petra Capital 3.70 3.14 17.83%
CIA Champion Iron $6.12 Goldman Sachs 7.50 7.60 -1.32%
COL Coles Group $17.43 Goldman Sachs 18.50 19.10 -3.14%
Jarden 16.90 17.10 -1.17%
CPU Computershare $29.22 Jarden 30.50 30.10 1.33%
CTD Corporate Travel Management $12.21 Wilsons 12.26 12.43 -1.37%
CTT Cettire $1.39 Petra Capital 1.38 1.15 20.00%
CVV Caravel Minerals $0.16 Canaccord Genuity 0.60 0.65 -7.69%
DMP Domino’s Pizza Enterprises $30.10 Petra Capital 32.00 34.40 -6.98%
DRR Deterra Royalties $3.71 Canaccord Genuity 4.70 5.30 -11.32%
EXP Experience Co $0.13 Canaccord Genuity 0.23 0.24 -4.17%
FFM FireFly Metals $1.22 Moelis 1.50 1.30 15.38%
FLT Flight Centre Travel $16.12 Goldman Sachs 17.50 18.30 -4.37%
GLN Galan Lithium $0.16 Petra Capital 0.36 0.38 -5.26%
GOR Gold Road Resources $1.79 Canaccord Genuity 2.45 2.35 4.26%
Moelis 2.40 2.30 4.35%
IDX Integral Diagnostics $3.06 Jarden 3.72 3.67 1.36%
IGO IGO Ltd $5.28 Jarden 8.28 8.53 -2.93%
INR ioneer $0.21 Wilsons 0.20 0.30 -33.33%
JBH JB Hi-Fi $81.81 Goldman Sachs 54.40 52.90 2.84%
Jarden 68.00 64.80 4.94%
JHX James Hardie Industries $48.35 Jarden 52.00 54.00 -3.70%
LRK Lark Distilling Co $1.17 Canaccord Genuity 1.50 1.20 25.00%
Moelis 1.25 1.00 25.00%
LTR Liontown Resources $0.82 Jarden 0.68 0.90 -24.44%
LYC Lynas Rare Earths $8.02 Canaccord Genuity 7.50 7.15 4.90%
MDR MedAdvisor $0.25 Moelis 0.45 0.53 -15.09%
MFG Magellan Financial $10.59 Jarden 9.90 10.00 -1.00%
MIN Mineral Resources $38.46 Goldman Sachs 41.00 45.00 -8.89%
Jarden 31.20 32.00 -2.50%
ORG Origin Energy $9.87 Goldman Sachs 10.30 10.45 -1.44%
PBH PointsBet Holdings $0.84 Jarden 1.00 0.95 5.26%
PLS Pilbara Minerals $3.01 Jarden 3.30 3.70 -10.81%
PYC PYC Therapeutics $0.19 Wilsons 0.39 0.37 5.41%
SDR SiteMinder $6.70 Wilsons 7.60 7.20 5.56%
SMI Santana Minerals $0.60 Canaccord Genuity 1.16 3.40 -65.88%
SPZ Smart Parking $0.72 Petra Capital 1.02 0.73 39.73%
SYR Syrah Resources $0.28 Jarden 0.57 0.66 -13.64%
TPW Temple & Webster $11.40 Jarden 14.01 14.30 -2.03%
UNI Universal Store $7.61 Jarden 8.97 7.88 13.83%
Petra Capital 8.25 7.50 10.00%
Wilsons 8.30 8.40 -1.19%
WBC Westpac $31.51 Jarden 30.00 29.20 2.74%
WGX Westgold Resources $2.84 Canaccord Genuity 4.40 4.30 2.33%
Petra Capital 3.82 3.60 6.11%
WOW Woolworths Group $29.64 Jarden 37.30 38.60 -3.37%
Company Last Price Broker New Target Old Target Change

More Highlights

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $17.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity observes Credit Corp’s 1Q25 trading update reflecting 12% year-on-year growth in US collections, driven by strong productivity and a streamlined headcount.

Australian debt-buying collections have stabilised, the analyst notes, while Australian lending shows steady demand with a decline of -6% in new customer volumes compared to the prior year.

Management’s FY25 net profit after tax guidance remains at $90-100m, with an anticipated 17% growth mid-point.

Canaccord Genuity remains Buy rated with $20.70 target.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $17.17 Difference: $3.53
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.33, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.0, implying annual growth of 90.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.5, implying annual growth of 13.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support Overnight Price: $7.38

Jarden rates ((DTL)) as Neutral (3)

Data#3 reported 1Q25 update which aligned with Jarden’s expectations, showing stable guidance and a reduced risk of downgrades, with EBIT growth projected at 6.7% year-on-year.

The analyst notes despite challenges in hardware, the company’s strengths in software and services are expected to drive medium-term growth, particularly through AI adoption and a strong position in Copilot licenses.

Jarden emphasises Gartner forecasts increased IT spending in Australia and anticipates the trend will suppot Data#3’s growth outlook.

Data#3 is Neutral rated with $8.54 target price. The analyst’s EPS estimates for FY25-27 remain unchanged.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $8.54 Current Price is $7.38 Difference: $1.16
If DTL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 18.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EOS    ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment Overnight Price: $1.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EOS)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity highlights Electro Optic Systems posted a solid third quarter, achieving $77m in cash receipts, an outcome slightly down year-on-year. There was a cash balance of $55m at quarter’s end.

Management maintains robust cash flow expectations and anticipates multiple contract opportunities in Q4, including potential wins in Europe and the Middle East. 

Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy rating and a target price of $1.85.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.485
If EOS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.65.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 95.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFM    INFOMEDIA LIMITED

Automobiles & Components Overnight Price: $1.37

Moelis rates ((IFM)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)

Moelis initiates coverage of Infomedia with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.88.

The broker highlights stable core businesses, including electronic parts catalogues (Microcat) and service workflow software (Superservice), which provide a recurring revenue base.

These businesses also support new growth initiatives in data analytics (Infodrive) and e-commerce (SimplePart), explains the analyst.

Moelis notes Infomedia’s strategy aligns with industry trends, including leveraging data to improve OEM and dealership profitability and enhancing customer experiences.

The broker forecasts FY25 earnings to be skewed towards the second half, supported by cost control and the timing of price increases.

The analyst also points to the substantial cash position, which provides flexibility for capital management and potential acquisitions.

This report was published on November 7, 2024.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.51
If IFM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 51.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 101.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 22.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming Overnight Price: $0.83

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Buy (1)

Jarden reports that PointsBet delivered positive 1Q25 results with top-line growth across Australia and Ontario, maintaining FY25 guidance for earnings (EBITDA) of $11-16m.

In Australia, PointsBet achieved a 7% net win growth in the September quarter to $57m, note the analysts, benefiting from new product features and expanded customer offerings.

Ontario saw a 62% net win growth in online sports betting and iGaming, highlighted the broker, with PointsBet continuing to build out its iGaming content.

Despite a seasonally weak cash flow period, PointsBet reiterated its FY25 target for net cash flow breakeven.

Jarden raises the target price to $1.00 from $0.95 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.165
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 59.64.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.70.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $6.75

Wilsons rates ((SDR)) as Overweight (1)

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating on SiteMinder, increasing the target price to $7.60, driven by anticipated growth through the company’s Smart Products, C-plus, DR-plus and SD.

The broker believes SiteMinder’s projected 30% revenue growth in FY25 relies on these products following.

Wilsons explains DR-plus adoption is expected among small and mid-market properties, while larger chains may continue with third-party revenue management system solutions.

The company’s DR-plus model, featuring a 1% commission structure, aims to capture more revenue per booking.

Revenue from DR-plus and C-plus is forecast by the analyst to contribute around $20m by FY26 and $60m-$70m by FY27, essential to sustaining 30% growth.

Overweight. Target $7.60.

This report was published on November 4, 2024.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.75 Difference: $0.85
If SDR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 173.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 270.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 376.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment Overnight Price: $0.76

Petra Capital rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital finds Smart Parking undervalued relative to SaaS peers based on the “rule of 40” analysis, which combines growth and EBITDA margin to evaluate SaaS quality, applying a revised 17x EV/EBITDA multiple.

The analyst views the upcoming AGM on 15 November and possible policy changes under Queensland’s new government, which could benefit private parking operators as two potentially positive events.

Target price lifts to $1.02 from $0.73. The broker highlights strong prospects in the new Denmark market, expected to enhance profitability through improved gross margins and faster cash conversion cycles due to digital processing.

Buy rating retains. Petra Capital emphasises the company’s robust recurring revenue model and potential for further offshore expansion.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.265
If SPZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.32.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.88.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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CHARTS

CAJ IDX INR JHX LYC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CAJ - CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IDX - INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INR - IONEER LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED