IONEER LIMITED (INR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

21/01/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$0.30

42.86%

The US Department of Energy has upsized its loan towards Ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project to US$996m from US$700m.

Ord Minnett views this as a positive for the company as five years of inflation since the previous definitive feasibility study in 2020
is likely to have materially increased the capital costs.

The broker now estimates total funding requirements of -US$1611m, which would require some capital raise after accounting for Sibanye’s contribution of US$490mn. The upsized loan makes the capital raise manageable, the broker believes.

Target price is retained at 30c and Speculative Buy rating stays.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.46 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.91 cents.

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06/11/2024

5

Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight

$0.20

-4.76%

Underpinned by the recent long-awaited award of the final federal permit for the Rhyolite Ridge project, ioneer shares have roughly doubled since August. With attention now turning to the next phase, Wilsons believes newsflow is likely to turn negative in the near term.

Accordingly, the broker makes estimate changes which have driven a -33% cut in target price to 20c, and double-downgrades its
rating on the stock to Underweight from Overweight.

The key potential negatives upcoming are the updated project economics, for which Wilsons expects a significant increase in capex, and material risk to the potential financing arrangements which ioneer has in place to fund that capex.

FORECAST
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -4.57 cents.
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -3.04 cents.