IONEER LIMITED (INR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

25/09/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$0.25

38.89%

ioneer's FY25 annual report contained no material changes, with Ord Minnett keeping its target price of 25c and Speculative Buy rating unchanged.

The broker highlights shares lifted 18% on news the US administration may seek an equity stake in Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass project after debt concerns.

The broker stresses issues at Thacker Pass are not relevant to ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge where contracts are take-or-pay, with half supported by price collars, ensuring secure cash flow. 

Overall, Ord Minnett believes the prospect of US government equity in Thacker Pass is positive for ioneer, suggesting stronger official support for domestic lithium projects. 

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.47 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -0.47 cents.

29/09/2025

1

Speculative Buy

$0.40

122.22%

The Trump administration may take up to a 10% equity stake in Canadian/US-listed Lithium Americas.

The company owns 68% of the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, with the remainder held by General Motors, which invested -US$625m for a 38% stake in December 2024.

Strategic government involvement would mirror investments in Intel and MP Materials, notes Canaccord Genuity, supporting national security priorities.

The broker sees ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge as a strong beneficiary of similar policies, given its US$996m Department of Energy loan, full permitting, long mine life, and downstream production plans of 20ktpa lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE).

The analysts flag a -US$670m funding gap remains, which could be bridged by US Government participation and a strategic partner.

Canaccord retains a Speculative Buy rating and 40c target.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus -1.24 cents.