Weekly Reports | Dec 13 2024
This story features BEACH ENERGY LIMITED. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity downgrades Beach Energy to Sell from Hold and reduces its target price to $1.20 from $1.25, citing delays in first production at Waitsia to the June quarter of 2025 and concerns over project execution.
The broker lowers FY25 production guidance to 18.7mnboe, compared to management’s guidance range of 17.5-21.5mnboe, and cuts earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10% to $896m.
Concerns remain over abandonment costs for legacy assets such as Kupe and Bass Gas, which could hinder divestment efforts and add risk to FCF aspirations, explains the analyst.
The company is targeting cost and capital reductions, including a -30% headcount reduction by the December quarter of 2024.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downgrade | |||||
| 1 | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Canaccord Genuity | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.34 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.20 | 1.25 | -4.00% |
| Jarden | 1.33 | 1.35 | -1.48% | |||
| BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | $2.30 | Petra Capital | 5.21 | 4.55 | 14.51% |
| CKF | Collins Foods | $7.71 | Canaccord Genuity | 8.00 | 7.70 | 3.90% |
| Wilsons | 10.72 | 11.79 | -9.08% | |||
| CNB | Carnaby Resources | $0.33 | Petra Capital | 1.26 | 1.45 | -13.10% |
| DVP | Develop Global | $2.38 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.70 | 4.65 | 1.08% |
| GQG | GQG Partners | $2.35 | Goldman Sachs | 2.80 | 3.00 | -6.67% |
| Jarden | 3.15 | N/A | – | |||
| LOT | Lotus Resources | $0.22 | Petra Capital | 0.37 | 0.36 | 2.78% |
| MGH | Maas Group | $4.82 | Moelis | 5.81 | 4.65 | 24.95% |
| MTO | Motorcycle Holdings | $1.95 | Moelis | 2.60 | 2.37 | 9.70% |
| NXG | NexGen Energy | $12.51 | Petra Capital | 14.10 | 12.15 | 16.05% |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | $124.15 | Goldman Sachs | 135.10 | 136.20 | -0.81% |
| RUL | RPMGlobal | $3.11 | Taylor Collison | 3.55 | N/A | – |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $10.40 | Wilsons | 10.80 | 9.90 | 9.09% |
| SHL | Sonic Healthcare | $28.10 | Jarden | 29.04 | 28.06 | 3.49% |
| SLC | Superloop | $2.19 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.52 | 2.27 | 11.01% |
| SPR | Spartan Resources | $1.45 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.10 | 1.70 | 23.53% |
| WOW | Woolworths Group | $30.32 | Jarden | 36.70 | 37.30 | -1.61% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
ACE ACUSENSUS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics Overnight Price: $1.00
Canaccord Genuity rates ((ACE)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity highlights a strong start to FY25 for Acusensus, with 17% growth in Q1 revenue to $14m ahead of expectations for 14% growth for the financial year.
The broker notes revenue is being supported by long-term government contracts, with no churn and high cross-sell success rates.
Key domestic wins include a $9.4m three-year contract with the Western Australian government, contributing $3m in annual incremental revenue from the September quarter of 2025, highlight the analysts.
International growth includes new US contracts for distracted driving and speed enforcement, as well as a first long-term UK contract with Devon & Cornwall Police, explains the broker.
Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy rating and a $1.30 target price.
This report was published on October 22, 2024.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.295
If ACE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 71.79.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 111.67.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MPA MAD PAWS HOLDINGS LIMITED
Overnight Price: $0.07
Taylor Collison rates ((MPA)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1)
Taylor Collison initiates coverage on Mad Paws with a Speculative Buy rating and a 12c target, citing potential further upside through unlocking sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) value.
The company is experiencing strong macro tailwinds in the pet sector, supported by rising pet ownership and spending per pet, explains the analyst.
Challenges remain as the business continues to generate negative free cash flow, though the broker forecasts profitability in the medium term.
Taylor Collison values the marketplace assets at 14c/share and eCommerce assets at 6.0-7.4c/share, noting expressions of interest for both segments and the appointment of a financial advisor.
Marketplace growth has rebounded, with a 19% year-on-year increase in new customers following a media partnership with Seven West Media ((SWM)), highlights the analyst.
This report was published on November 29, 2024.
Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.051
If MPA meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.85.
Forecast for FY26:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.60.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MTO MOTORCYCLE HOLDINGS LIMITED
Automobiles & Components Overnight Price: $1.86
Moelis rates ((MTO)) as Buy (1)
Moelis notes a stronger-than-expected year-to-date trading update for Motorcycle Holdings, with revenues rising by 8% year-on-year.
Growth was driven by a 13% increase in used bike retail units and gains in parts, accessories, and service revenues, explains the broker.
The analysts highlight the company’s cost management initiatives, including property consolidation and system upgrades, which are expected to offset rising expenses.
The addition of new CFMOTO models continues to expand market share and support margin growth, observes the broker.
Moelis implements substantial EPS upgrades of 20-30% for FY25-27 forecasts, reflecting operating leverage as the business recovers from cyclical lows. The new management team is seen as well-placed to execute strategic growth initiatives.
Buy rating. The target price rises to $2.60 from $2.37.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.74
If MTO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.10 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.98.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 26.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.97.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNR PANTORO LIMITED
Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.09
Moelis rates ((PNR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)
Moelis initiates coverage on Pantoro with a Buy rating and a target price of 14c, highlighting the company’s strong position as an emerging Australian gold producer.
The broker notes the completion of the 1mtpa processing facility at the Norseman project, supported by significant mineral resources of 4.7moz and ore reserves of 895koz.
Production is expected to ramp up to 80-90koz annually for ten years, with potential for higher grades and increased output.
Pantoro’s net cash position of approximately $105m and minimal hedging provide full exposure to gold prices up to $4,200/oz, highlights Moelis.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.046
If PNR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.59.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.22.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RKN RECKON LIMITED
Accountancy Overnight Price: $0.55
Moelis rates ((RKN)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)
Moelis initiates coverage on Reckon with a Buy rating and a target price of 67c, citing strategic value from the transition to its proprietary Reckon One platform. It’s noted the Australian market for cloud-based accounting software is large and continues to grow.
The broker notes stable revenues of $53.4m in 2023, with 60% generated from cloud-based subscriptions. Subscriber growth in Reckon One offsets declines in legacy products, supported by recent enhancements like payroll functionality, explains the analyst.
Management incentives align with shareholder value, focusing on returning cash and exploring M&A opportunities, highlights Moelis.
The company’s US-based nQ Zebraworks division also offers growth potential, according to the broker, targeting mid-sized legal practices with bundled SaaS solutions.
This report was published on December 10, 2024.
Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.12
If RKN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.28.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.28.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RUL RPMGLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting Overnight Price: $3.24
Taylor Collison rates ((RUL)) as Outperform (2)
Taylor Collison initiates coverage on RPMGlobal with an Outperform rating and a $3.55 target, highlighting the company’s position as a leader in mine planning and asset management software.
The company’s AMT and XECUTE products are considered best in class, with strong adoption among Tier 1 miners.
The transition to a subscription-based model, with total contracted value (TCV) of $161m in FY24, enhances revenue visibility and reduces risk, in the analyst’s opinion.
The broker sees upside potential from global framework agreements, which streamline client onboarding and strengthen market positioning.
This report was published on November 29, 2024.
Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.24 Difference: $0.31
If RUL meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.50.
Forecast for FY26:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.51.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
STK STRICKLAND METALS LIMITED
Mining Overnight Price: $0.09
Canaccord Genuity rates ((STK)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1)
Strickland Metals is focussed on exploring the Rogozna Gold & Base Metals Project in Serbia. The project sits in an intriguing geological setting, Canaccord Genuity notes, in a region that hosts several significant mineral deposits including Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) Jadar lithium development.
Rogozna is a large-scale magmatic hydrothermal system which hosts a gold-copper (with zinc, silver and lead) mineralised system and comprises four key prospects, the broker notes.
Canaccord initiates coverage of Strickland with a Speculative Buy rating and price target of 16c.
This report was published on December 2, 2024.
Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.071
If STK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SLC SUPERLOOP LIMITED
Telecommunication Overnight Price: $2.25
Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLC)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity highlights Superloop’s strategic acquisition of Uecomm for -$17.5m, which includes 2,000km of fibre assets in key metropolitan areas.
The deal is expected to reduce network costs, enhance Smart Communities operations, and lower future capital expenditure, explains the analyst.
The broker notes the earnings contribution from Uecomm will be neutral in the first year, but the acquisition aligns with long-term growth opportunities in Smart Communities. FY25 net cash is projected at $23m, providing capacity for further acquisitions.
The analyst raises medium-to-long-term assumptions, resulting in a six-year earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%. Revenue and EBITDA forecasts for FY25 and FY26 remain unchanged.
Canaccord Genuity increases its target price to $2.52 from $2.27 and retains a Buy rating.
This report was published on December 11, 2024.
Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.27
If SLC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.92.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.48.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 34.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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