Weekly Reports | Feb 07 2025
This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden notes 29Metals achieved all FY24 guidance metrics and issued 2025 guidance consistent with its expectations. The highlight was another quarter of free cash flow from the Golden Grove mine, with $18m exceeding the broker’s forecast of $5m.
Unit cost of US$1.81/lb was 11% above Jarden’s US$1.63/lb estimates, however, with lower-than-forecast sustaining capital, the AISC of US$3.31/lb was only marginally higher than the broker’s US$3.26/lb
The broker’s valuation is based on long-term price forecasts of US$4.50/lb for copper and US$1.30/lb for zinc.
The only material change made to the valuation was to include the corporate charge allocated to Golden Grove at the asset level, with the offset being a reduction in corporate costs by the same amount.
Overweight rating with 32c target price.
VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Vault Minerals delivered a solid operational December quarter, Jarden highlights, with a focus on setting up the King of the Hills plant for expansion, a stronger 24 months at Mt Monger and a pick up in planned exploration and resource extension drilling.
In the broker’s view, the company’s operations are increasingly set up for material free cash flow boost over the coming years.
Jarden has incorporated increases to its gold price forecasts and lower forex, resulting in a 24% increase in valuation and target price.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight and target price raised to 52c from 42c.
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ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Jarden and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden highlights Accent Group’s 1H25 sales growth of 4.6% year on year was lower than the consensus for 7.5% growth. Gross profit margin and expenses were in line with consensus.
The broker is concerned the promotional environment in the footwear market may take longer to resolve than it initially expected. As a result, it lowered FY25 and FY26 EBIT forecasts by -11% and -9% respectively.
Potential near-term catalysts for the stock include discussions with Frasers Group regarding a long-term strategic agreement which the broker views as “very” positive, fewer promotions from competitors, and likely interest rate cuts.
Target price lowered to $2.10 from $2.35 and rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
Accent Group’s trading update flagged a slowing in retail sales in the six weeks to Dec 29, rising just 1.8% amid ongoing promotional backdrop, compared with 1H25 like-for-like growth of 2.9%.
Gross margin is expected to be down -100bps versus -70bps at the time of Nov 21 AGM.
Petra Capital has extrapolated the softness in December into 2H25 estimates. These negative revisions are partially offset by model roll-forward, resulting in a cut in target price to $2.28 from $2.35.
The broker now views the stock as trading at fair-value at 17.6x estimated FY25 PE and downgraded the rating to Hold from Buy.
GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED ((GOR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Gold Road had pre-reported most headline figures, so the main headline from its 4Q24 report was cost which came in at $1,811/oz, below Moelis’ expectation of $1,952/oz. The other notable update was FY25 guidance and growth outlook, which the broker reckons is conservative compared with realised rates in FY24.
Cost guidance range of $2,400-2,600/oz was higher than the broker’s $2,436/oz estimate but this includes several one-off items. Still, the analyst lifted sustaining capital costs forecasts to sit within the guidance.
Target price $2.55. Rating lowered to Hold from Buy on recent share price rally.
MEDADVISOR LIMITED ((MDR)) Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Moelis reckons MedAdvisor’s 1H25 result was in line with the weak guidance provided in late December. The broker notes the company seemed reasonably confident of achieving prior guidance for a positive FY25 EBITDA but this is contingent on contract wins in 2H.
The broker highlights the risk of the company needing to look at alternative funding sources if 2H contract wins are weaker than expected. The broker also notes further cost reductions will be required should US revenue remain under pressure.
Moelis remain cautious on the stock until it has a clearer line of sight around the US operations. Rating remains at Hold, but target price is lowered to 21c on EPS downgrades of -57% and -34% in FY25 and FY26 respectively.
MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden sees sizeable redemption risks to Magellan Financial’s $17bn of infrastructure funds under management (FUM) with the departure of infrastructure founder/portfolio manager and head of investments Gerald Stack announced for July 2025.
The broker estimates infrastructure FUM will fall by -30% over the coming years. The analyst highlights downside risks to this estimate given sizeable prior collapses in FUM balances, coupled with weak relative infrastructure fund performance,
Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral due to increased risk of higher net outflows. Target price lowered to $9.35.
POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PBH)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
PointsBet’s 2Q25 results disappointed Jarden, with a total net win of $135m coming in below the broker’s and consensus estimates.
The broker notes weaker quarterly top-line performance resulted from seemingly underwhelming VIP cohorts across both regions, and unfavourable results in Canada.
The company downgraded its FY25 EBITDA guidance range to $11-14m (from $11-16m), and FY25 revenue guidance to $260-270m from $280-290m.
Target price cut to $0.95 from $1.00, and rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy.
RESMED INC ((RMD)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons notes ResMed’s 2Q25 revenue and gross margins were in line with its forecasts while non-GAAP EPS beat its estimate by 7%.
The broker expects manufacturing, procurement initiatives and scale benefits to materialise in FY26-27 and subsequently lifted gross margins in this forecast period by 50bps.
The broker upgraded FY25-27 EPS estimates by 2%, leading to a rise in target price to $42.82 from $42.18.
Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight as the broker believes earnings expectations now capture the outlook it upgraded for, and some of those drivers may only have a few quarters left to run.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | 29METALS LIMITED | Buy | Sell | Jarden | |
| 2 | VAULT MINERALS LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 3 | ACCENT GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 4 | ACCENT GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Petra Capital | |
| 5 | GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Moelis | |
| 6 | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 7 | MEDADVISOR LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Moelis | |
| 8 | POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
| 9 | RESMED INC | Neutral | Buy | Wilsons | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29M | 29Metals | $0.21 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.16 | 0.21 | -23.81% |
| Jarden | 0.32 | 0.30 | 6.67% | |||
| AGN | Argenica Therapeutics | $0.72 | Petra Capital | 1.20 | 1.15 | 4.35% |
| ALX | Atlas Arteria | $5.07 | Jarden | N/A | 7.00 | -100.00% |
| ARB | ARB Corp | $37.00 | Canaccord Genuity | 34.70 | 38.30 | -9.40% |
| ARX | Aroa Biosurgery | $0.54 | Wilsons | 0.75 | 1.00 | -25.00% |
| ASG | Autosports Group | $1.75 | Jarden | 2.50 | 2.95 | -15.25% |
| Moelis | 1.67 | 2.00 | -16.50% | |||
| AX1 | Accent Group | $2.14 | Jarden | 2.10 | 2.35 | -10.64% |
| Petra Capital | 2.28 | 2.35 | -2.98% | |||
| BBT | BlueBet Holdings | $0.39 | Taylor Collison | N/A | 0.30 | -100.00% |
| BRE | Brazilian Rare Earths | $2.23 | Petra Capital | 5.39 | 5.21 | 3.45% |
| BRG | Breville Group | $37.60 | Goldman Sachs | 40.90 | 34.20 | 19.59% |
| CIA | Champion Iron | $5.41 | Goldman Sachs | 7.60 | 7.50 | 1.33% |
| Jarden | 7.34 | 7.26 | 1.10% | |||
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | $8.06 | Canaccord Genuity | 8.85 | 8.30 | 6.63% |
| Jarden | 7.99 | 6.96 | 14.80% | |||
| CNB | Carnaby Resources | $0.35 | Moelis | 0.75 | 0.86 | -12.79% |
| GOR | Gold Road Resources | $2.60 | Moelis | 2.55 | 2.40 | 6.25% |
| GQG | GQG Partners | $2.29 | Jarden | 3.05 | 3.15 | -3.17% |
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $8.90 | Goldman Sachs | 8.30 | 8.10 | 2.47% |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | $4.98 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.40 | 4.30 | 2.33% |
| Goldman Sachs | 5.60 | 6.20 | -9.68% | |||
| Jarden | 6.07 | 6.20 | -2.10% | |||
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $1.58 | Goldman Sachs | 2.08 | 2.04 | 1.96% |
| Jarden | 1.95 | 1.90 | 2.63% | |||
| KCN | Kingsgate Consolidated | $1.36 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.35 | 3.40 | -1.47% |
| MAC | MAC Copper | $17.43 | Wilsons | 24.50 | 23.50 | 4.26% |
| MDR | MedAdvisor | $0.18 | Moelis | 0.21 | 0.45 | -53.33% |
| MFG | Magellan Financial | $10.12 | Jarden | 9.35 | 9.90 | -5.56% |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | $35.34 | Goldman Sachs | 34.00 | 41.00 | -17.07% |
| Jarden | 22.80 | 27.60 | -17.39% | |||
| ORG | Origin Energy | $10.14 | Goldman Sachs | 10.20 | 10.40 | -1.92% |
| Jarden | 10.45 | 10.65 | -1.88% | |||
| PBH | PointsBet Holdings | $0.84 | Jarden | 0.95 | 1.00 | -5.00% |
| PEN | Peninsula Energy | $1.17 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.50 | 3.20 | -21.88% |
| PER | Percheron Therapeutics | $0.01 | Wilsons | N/A | 0.25 | -100.00% |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $2.33 | Goldman Sachs | 2.10 | N/A | – |
| Jarden | 2.60 | 2.50 | 4.00% | |||
| PME | Pro Medicus | $288.00 | Goldman Sachs | 310.00 | 278.00 | 11.51% |
| PMV | Premier Investments | $24.31 | Jarden | 23.50 | 29.50 | -20.34% |
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $25.87 | Jarden | 24.20 | 22.60 | 7.08% |
| PPT | Perpetual | $22.01 | Jarden | 24.05 | 24.20 | -0.62% |
| PXA | Pexa Group | $12.45 | Jarden | 15.35 | 14.65 | 4.78% |
| RMD | ResMed | $38.69 | Goldman Sachs | 49.00 | 48.90 | 0.20% |
| Jarden | 41.48 | 36.60 | 13.33% | |||
| Wilsons | 42.82 | 42.18 | 1.52% | |||
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $10.33 | Goldman Sachs | 10.40 | 8.20 | 26.83% |
| Jarden | 11.00 | 9.20 | 19.57% | |||
| SYR | Syrah Resources | $0.24 | Jarden | 0.29 | 0.30 | -3.33% |
| TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | $10.73 | Jarden | 14.70 | 14.10 | 4.26% |
| VAU | Vault Minerals | $0.42 | Jarden | 0.52 | 0.42 | 23.81% |
| Moelis | 0.57 | 0.54 | 5.56% | |||
| Petra Capital | 0.51 | 0.49 | 4.08% | |||
| WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.51 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.25 | 4.70 | -9.57% |
| Petra Capital | 3.32 | 3.82 | -13.09% | |||
| WOW | Woolworths Group | $29.70 | Goldman Sachs | 36.10 | 36.20 | -0.28% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
ACE ACUSENSUS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics Overnight Price: $1.25
Canaccord Genuity rates ((ACE)) as Buy (1)
Second quarter revenue for Acusensus reached $14.6m, up 4% quarter-on-quarter and 16% year-on-year, highlights Canaccord Genuity.
The broker explains growth was driven by new contract wins in South Australia and overseas, as well as key contract extensions in QLD and NSW, alongside inflation-linked price rises.
Total contracted value surged 58% in H1 to $325m, note the analysts, marking the strongest incremental increase in the company’s history.
Management is accelerating product innovation, launching its road worker safety technology with Fulton Hogan, and expanding in high-growth regions in the UK/US, highlights Canaccord.
The Buy rating and $1.50 target are unchanged.
This report was published on January 30, 2025.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.25
If ACE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 178.57.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 416.67.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IMB INTELLIGENT MONITORING GROUP LIMITED
Overnight Price: $0.56
Moelis rates ((IMB)) as Buy (1)
Moelis notes Intelligent Monitoring Group’s December quarter result was strong, showing material improvements quarter on quarter in underlying earnings and cash flow. Upside surprise came from the early success of video guarding, with several large-scale contracts signed in December through its Signature Guarding brand.
The company announced a new secured term debt facility with NAB of $122.5m which will result in a material interest cost saving to a rate of around 7% from the current 15%. The new debt facility is expected to be implemented by the end of March, and the broker notes most of the interest cost savings will be in FY26 and beyond.
The broker views the debt refinancing as a large strategic milestone for the company, with the upsized facility helping facilitate further M&A and could provide upside to its estimates.
Buy rating and 88c target price.
This report was published on February 4, 2025.
Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.32
If IMB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.94.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.62.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LRK LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco Overnight Price: $1.12
Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRK)) as Speculative Buy (1)
Lark Distilling’s 2Q net sales revenue exceeded Canaccord Genuity’s forecast, driven by strong domestic direct-to-consumer sales, incremental contributions from Global Travel Retail (GTR), and direct export sales.
Domestic B2B sales were softer year-on-year, observes the broker, due to distribution outsourcing and industrial action, though export sales were supported by a replenishment order from Singapore and a 12% increase in GTR revenue.
Management is investing in marketing ahead of a planned brand relaunch in the second half of FY25, with an expansion strategy focused on GTR and direct exports.
Canaccord leaves forecasts unchanged and highlights the need for sales growth acceleration into 2025 to meet expectations. A Speculative Buy rating and $1.50 target price are retained.
This report was published on January 30, 2025.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.38
If LRK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.67.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.67.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RDY READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED
Software & Services Overnight Price: $3.19
Wilsons rates ((RDY)) as Overweight (1)
Wilsons is expecting limited surprises at ReadyTech’s result on Feb 26, noting that beyond some implementation delays in recent local government wins, IT Vision cloud conversion is accelerating following the achievement of its final earnout hurdle.
This is highlighted as a positive signal to NRR and group margin expansion for 2H25 and beyond.
The broker has considered a scenario where the company grows revenue at a slower rate, but strictly focuses on delivering 100bps of margin expansion per year.
This, combined with debt reduction, would see a far more consistent rate EPS growth trajectory of over 15%, leading to $20m of free cash flow per year and supporting fully franked dividend.
The Overweight rating and a target price of $3.70 are retained.
This report was published on January 30, 2025.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.51
If RDY meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 27.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 148.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.03.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 30.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYL SYMAL GROUP LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $1.91
Jarden rates ((SYL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)
Jarden initiates coverage of Symal Group with a Buy recommendation and target price of $2.15.
The broker notes construction works still form the majority of the company’s EBITDA base, which it expects to strengthen over time with new contract wins.
The broker sees the company as having three distinct advantages that allow it to generate EBITDA and EBIT margins 150-200bps over comparable ASX-listed peers.
Advantages include vertical integration and materials ownership, modest capital investment requirement and scope to drive margin from variations and scope shifts on performance works.
The company will report its maiden ASX-listed 1H25 result on February 24 where the broker expects earnings skew to be largely consistent with historical levels at 40% in 1H, and forecasts underlying 1H EBITDA of $41m.
This report was published on February 4, 2025.
Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.24
If SYL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.97.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M - 29METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AX1 - ACCENT GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GOR - GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MDR - MEDADVISOR LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MFG - MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VAU - VAULT MINERALS LIMITED