Weekly Reports | Feb 14 2025
This story features DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DMP
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Domino’s Pizza’s 1H25 trading update was in line with consensus, notes Petra Capital, with the company announcing savings of $15.5m from the closure of -205 stores and other cost savings of $18.6m.
Whilst France remains challenged, Japan (plus other Asian markets) appears to be past its lows, Germany is rebounding, and ANZ is holding against strong same-store sales, Petra observes.
The broker has factored in the store closures but made no material change to its net cost savings profile at this stage.
The analyst notes for the first time in a long while, there are now more markets showing positive trends vs negative, and hence lowered the beta used in its DCF valuation.
Target price rises to $40 from $32, and rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.
Downgrade
NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Nick Scali delivered a strong 1H25 result with net profit beating Jarden’s forecast by 17%. Gross profit margin (GPM) for Australia/NZ of 64.4% beat the consensus of 62.8%, and the UK margin of 45.1% beat 42.9% consensus.
The broker notes trading update for Australia/NZ was weak but the outlook for UK margins remained strong.
The broker lowered FY25 net profit estimate by -2% and increased FY26 by 6%, driven by revenue downgrades on a slower store rollout and softer trading update, offset by GPM upgrades.
Target price rises to $18.5 but rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy on valuation and execution risk.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Petra Capital | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 2 | NICK SCALI LIMITED | Buy | Buy | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AOV | Amotiv | $9.84 | Wilsons | 12.70 | 12.71 | -0.08% |
| ARF | Arena REIT | $3.83 | Moelis | 3.98 | 3.95 | 0.76% |
| AYA | Artrya | $0.86 | Petra Capital | 2.20 | 2.21 | -0.45% |
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.46 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.28 | 1.20 | 6.67% |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.30 | 1.35 | -3.70% | |||
| Jarden | 1.38 | 1.42 | -2.82% | |||
| Wilsons | 1.86 | 1.66 | 12.05% | |||
| BRG | Breville Group | $35.85 | Goldman Sachs | 40.80 | 40.90 | -0.24% |
| Jarden | 32.60 | 26.30 | 23.95% | |||
| BSL | BlueScope Steel | $21.99 | Goldman Sachs | 26.70 | 25.10 | 6.37% |
| Jarden | 21.80 | 21.90 | -0.46% | |||
| BVS | Bravura Solutions | $2.78 | Wilsons | 3.17 | 2.06 | 53.88% |
| BWP | BWP Trust | $3.44 | Jarden | 3.45 | 3.55 | -2.82% |
| Moelis | 3.76 | 3.74 | 0.53% | |||
| CAR | CAR Group | $37.83 | Goldman Sachs | 43.90 | 44.50 | -1.35% |
| Jarden | 34.60 | 35.50 | -2.54% | |||
| CLW | Charter Hall Long WALE REIT | $3.86 | Jarden | 3.80 | 3.60 | 5.56% |
| COF | Centuria Office REIT | $1.15 | Jarden | 1.17 | 1.20 | -2.50% |
| Moelis | 1.68 | 1.73 | -2.89% | |||
| COH | Cochlear | $304.54 | Jarden | 263.75 | 266.22 | -0.93% |
| CPU | Computershare | $42.57 | Jarden | 34.50 | 34.00 | 1.47% |
| CQE | Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT | $2.86 | Jarden | 2.95 | 2.75 | 7.27% |
| CSL | CSL | $254.00 | Jarden | 314.37 | 329.62 | -4.63% |
| Wilsons | 250.00 | 291.78 | -14.32% | |||
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | $33.16 | Goldman Sachs | 38.30 | 39.10 | -2.05% |
| Jarden | 41.00 | 40.00 | 2.50% | |||
| Petra Capital | 40.00 | 32.00 | 25.00% | |||
| DXC | Dexus Convenience Retail REIT | $2.90 | Moelis | 3.39 | 3.40 | -0.29% |
| GDF | Garda Property | $1.16 | Moelis | 1.57 | 1.66 | -5.42% |
| GDG | Generation Development | $4.87 | Moelis | N/A | 4.91 | -100.00% |
| JAN | Janison Education | $0.19 | Wilsons | 0.22 | 0.25 | -12.00% |
| JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $100.88 | Goldman Sachs | 73.90 | 66.90 | 10.46% |
| Jarden | 95.80 | 84.00 | 14.05% | |||
| LIN | Lindian Resources | $0.10 | Petra Capital | 0.50 | 0.63 | -20.63% |
| MEI | Meteoric Resources | $0.08 | Petra Capital | 0.24 | 0.39 | -38.46% |
| NCK | Nick Scali | $17.14 | Jarden | 18.50 | 15.88 | 16.50% |
| NWC | New World Resources | $0.02 | Petra Capital | 0.09 | 0.10 | -10.00% |
| NWS | News Corp | $54.08 | Goldman Sachs | 61.00 | 52.00 | 17.31% |
| Jarden | 54.60 | 50.30 | 8.55% | |||
| PXA | Pexa Group | $11.89 | Jarden | 15.30 | 15.35 | -0.33% |
| REA | REA Group | $270.29 | Goldman Sachs | 273.00 | 249.00 | 9.64% |
| Jarden | 210.00 | 205.00 | 2.44% | |||
| RGN | Region Group | $2.10 | Jarden | 2.40 | 2.50 | -4.00% |
| RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $5.17 | Jarden | 5.70 | 5.60 | 1.79% |
| SGM | Sims | $13.78 | Goldman Sachs | 15.50 | 11.40 | 35.96% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $19.68 | Goldman Sachs | 21.00 | 20.50 | 2.44% |
| TTM | Titan Minerals | $0.45 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.10 | 1.30 | -15.38% |
| WA1 | WA1 Resources | $13.46 | Canaccord Genuity | 28.00 | 27.50 | 1.82% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
AIM AI-MEDIA TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED
Commercial Services & Supplies Overnight Price: $0.71
Petra Capital rates ((AIM)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1)
Petra Capital has initiated coverage of AI-Media Technologies with a Buy recommendation and target price of $1.26.
The broker believes AI-Media is in the sweet spot to benefit from significant caption opportunities for both live and pre-recorded content across the Americas, Europe and the Asia Pacific region.
These include strong regulatory tailwinds demanding “fair-play” for those with hearing loss, and ever-increasing channels/genres requiring captioning and translation.
The broker’s gross margins estimates are set to expand from 64% to 83% over the life of the broker’s forecasts, driving an attractive 3-year compounded annual EBITDA forecast for FY25-27 of 46%.
The broker notes AI-Media has provided a longer-dated aspirational EBITDA target of $60m by FY29. If achieved, this would represent material upside to the target price.
This report was published on February 10, 2025.
Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.545
If AIM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 102.14.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.83.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BC8 BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED
Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.73
Petra Capital rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1)
Petra Capital has resumed coverage of Black Cat Syndicate with a Buy rating and target price of $1.10.
The broker notes the company’s Paulsens gold mine hosts one of the highest-grade gold resources in Australia (407koz at 9.4g/t gold). First gold at Paulsens in December added to the company’s gold production at Myhree since October under an ore sale agreement.
The broker now forecasts Black Cat’s gold output at a run-rate of over 95kozpa by end-FY25, with a third production centre at Coyote from 2027 lifting group output to +140kozpa.
Petra highlights the company is fully funded for a sequential mine development path, unhedged and has no debt.
This report was published on February 6, 2025.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.37
If BC8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.20.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.80.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BVS BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $2.74
Wilsons rates ((BVS)) as Overweight (1)
First half results for Bravura Solutions revealed a significant improvement in earnings (EBITDA) to $23.8m from $7.9m in the prior corresponding period due to cost savings and efficiency programs, highlights Wilsons.
Management upgraded FY25 revenue and earnings (EBITDA) guidance by 3% and 12%, respectively, reflecting ongoing operational efficiencies.
With financial stability restored and a focus shifting to revenue growth, the broker expects further contract wins to support momentum.
Wilsons’ target rises to $3.17 from $2.06 due to a 15% lift in the FY25 earnings forecast and a higher valuation multiple. Overweight rating maintained.
This report was published on February 13, 2025.
Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.43
If BVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.06.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.58.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DXC DEXUS CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT
REITs Overnight Price: $2.92
Moelis rates ((DXC)) as Buy (1)
Following Dexus Convenience Retail REIT’s 1H25 result, Moelis lowered its earnings profile slightly, taking a more conservative view of cost inflation and occupancy.
The broker highlights cost inflation continues to run ahead of rent growth, resulting in EBIT margin falling year on year to 71.9% from 72.2%.
The broker expects gearing to reach 34% by FY27 without valuation growth, from 28.7% in December. With modest valuation growth, the broker expects below 32% gearing.
The broker continues to believe the stock is meaningfully undervalued, with its current implied cap rate of 7.4% representing an attractive discount to direct market evidence. Buy rating retained and target price is $3.39.
This report was published on February 9, 2025.
Target price is $3.39 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.47
If DXC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting upside of 10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 734.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GDF GARDA PROPERTY GROUP
REITs Overnight Price: $1.12
Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1)
Garda Property’s 1H25 funds from operations and dividend were in line with Moelis’ estimates, and the company reaffirmed FY25 dividend guidance of 6.3c.
The broker notes Garda is well positioned for a strong 42% EPS growth into FY26 driven by debt reduction as a result of North Lakes sales and growth in credit book.
The broker made negligible changes to earnings, with an increased contribution from private credit offset by deferral of income contribution from both the Acacia Ridge properties. Buy rating maintained but target price cut to $1.57 from $1.66.
This report was published on February 6, 2025.
Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.45
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.72.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IPX IPERIONX LIMITED
Industrial Metals Overnight Price: $4.32
Petra Capital rates ((IPX)) as Buy (1)
Petra Capital highlights the little understood strong competitive moat for Iperionx in titanium production driven by its patented HAMR and HSPT processes. It’s felt customers will increasingly seek to partner with the company as production ramps-up in 2025.
The broker points out these technologies have lower energy costs, reduce waste, and improve production efficiencies, making titanium more viable for aerospace and defence applications.
A recent Boeing report validates Iperionx’s cost advantages, the broker suggests, estimating a potential -75% reduction in titanium costs for the Boeing 787 airframe through improved machining yields and reduced scrap.
Petra Capital retains its $6.69 target and Buy rating.
This report was published on February 7, 2025.
Target price is $6.69 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $2.37
If IPX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 254.12.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DMP - DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCK - NICK SCALI LIMITED