NICK SCALI LIMITED (NCK)
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30/10/2025

1

Buy

$28.85

19.81%

Citi analysts left Nick Scali’s AGM incrementally more positive on the outlook. Stronger-than-expected A&NZ sales and an improving UK sales trajectory more than offset higher UK losses, which have weighed on profit guidance, notes the broker.

Maiden first half FY26 profit guidance of $33-35m sits slightly below the $35.9m consensus,

Citi highlights the UK gross margin also exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the company’s international expansion strategy. UK losses are expected to narrow from the second quarter of FY26 and to be eliminated soon after.

The broker highlights a 58.3% gross margin in the first quarter, above the 58% breakeven level, and anticipates further upside.

Citi cuts its FY26 net profit after tax forecast by -2% following the guidance and raises its FY27 forecast by 2% on better A&NZ sales momentum and on increased confidence in the UK business. 

Target price is lifted to $28.85 from $24.40. Buy rated.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 65.30 cents and EPS of 86.20 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 82.40 cents and EPS of 109.90 cents.

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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12/08/2025

2

Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral

$20.68

-14.12%

Jarden raises its target for Nick Scali to $20.68 from $17.71 and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral following FY25 results and a trading update.

The FY25 A&NZ performance exceeded the broker's expectations and UK gross margins are tracking ahead of plan, helping offset a slower UK sales ramp.

Group FY25 earnings (EBITDA) missed consensus by around -1%, but A&NZ earnings beat by circa 4% on stronger opex control and a small revenue beat.

A&NZ order momentum is solid, highlight the analysts, with 2H25 written sales orders up 7.3% year-on-year and July up 7.7%, though store rollout guidance of 48 sites by June next year is slightly below consensus.

In the UK, sales remain around -50% below the consensus estimate due to refurbishments and staffing gaps, explains the broker, but 2H25 gross profit margins were around 400bps above consensus.

FY26 guidance for gross profit margins is for between 57–59%, with potential to reach 60% from FY27.

Jarden lifts A&NZ earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 8–13% across FY26–28 on strong revenue momentum and disciplined cost control, partly offset by UK earnings downgrades on a slower sales uplift.

Risks include promotional intensity, macro conditions, and UK execution, cautions the broker.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 85.20 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 99.80 cents.