NICK SCALI LIMITED (NCK)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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11/08/2025

1

Buy

$24.40

10.31%

Citi remains Buy-rated on Nick Scali, citing improving A&NZ sales momentum from a housing cycle recovery, which should deliver strong operating leverage and help fund UK expansion until breakeven.

The broker forecasts FY26 sales will rise 7%, supported by lower interest rates, recent double-digit quarterly order growth, and higher customer deposits.

While UK breakeven may take longer, Citi sees medium-term upside from better staffing, normalised marketing, a new distribution centre, and reduced reliance on interest-free financing. FY26 losses forecast at circa -$8m versus a -$14m loss in FY25.

Five A&NZ store openings are planned for FY26, but site availability may limit rollout speed, suggests Citi.

At a later conference call with brokers, management signaled medium-term potential to lift gross margins beyond 58% in the UK, highlights the broker.

Citi explains this uplift will be driven by the addition of a second distribution centre and a reduction in the interest-free period once the brand is more established.

The target price is raised to $24.40 from $20.64.

FORECAST
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 66.60 cents and EPS of 88.50 cents.
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 80.70 cents and EPS of 107.50 cents.

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
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12/08/2025

2

Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral

$20.68

-6.51%

Jarden raises its target for Nick Scali to $20.68 from $17.71 and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral following FY25 results and a trading update.

The FY25 A&NZ performance exceeded the broker's expectations and UK gross margins are tracking ahead of plan, helping offset a slower UK sales ramp.

Group FY25 earnings (EBITDA) missed consensus by around -1%, but A&NZ earnings beat by circa 4% on stronger opex control and a small revenue beat.

A&NZ order momentum is solid, highlight the analysts, with 2H25 written sales orders up 7.3% year-on-year and July up 7.7%, though store rollout guidance of 48 sites by June next year is slightly below consensus.

In the UK, sales remain around -50% below the consensus estimate due to refurbishments and staffing gaps, explains the broker, but 2H25 gross profit margins were around 400bps above consensus.

FY26 guidance for gross profit margins is for between 57–59%, with potential to reach 60% from FY27.

Jarden lifts A&NZ earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 8–13% across FY26–28 on strong revenue momentum and disciplined cost control, partly offset by UK earnings downgrades on a slower sales uplift.

Risks include promotional intensity, macro conditions, and UK execution, cautions the broker.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 85.20 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 EPS of 99.80 cents.