Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 20, 2025

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

The company is included in ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   ARB   BHP   CGF (2)   CTD   DRR   DTL   DXS   HMC (2)   IFT   ILU   MAH   MND   OPT   ORA   PME   RWC (2)   SEK (2)  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.62

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis highlights Alkane Resources’ 1H25 result was mixed, with EBITDA missing its estimate owing to a -$6m variance in cost of sales but net profit beating forecast on account of lower D&A, net interest and taxes.

The broker notes net profit rose 6% y/y, reaffirming the business remains in a growth phase, with approximately half of the capital program now complete. 

Given the successful execution of stage one and the tailwind from rising gold prices, the broker views a temporary pause in spending program as likely, allowing a period of cash replenishment.

This would allow time for further capital commitments to deliver the final step up in production to +100koz gold, the broker notes.

Target price of 75c and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.13
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $39.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((ARB)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes ARB Corp’s 1H25 result missed consensus on sequentially slowing growth in Australian replacement parts market (Aftermarket) and higher employee costs. This was partially offset by gross margin expansion, recent acquisitions and strong export growth.

The broker highlights January sales were flat y/y, implying a continued deterioration in Australian aftermarket and flat original equipment manufacturer (OEM) growth. 

Target price cut to $38.0 from $39.2, driven by downgrades across Australian aftermarket and OEM, partly offset by upgrades in gross margin and Exports. Neutral maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $39.50 Difference: minus $1.5 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 12.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.5, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $40.98

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes BHP Group’s 1H25 result was in line with forecast, but highlighted the copper division’s EBITDA was 6% higher than its estimate.

The broker remains bullish on copper and expects BHP’s copper EBITDA to increase by US$5bn to US$12bn by FY26 (45% of group EBITDA).  The analyst reiterated its view that the group’s net debt ceiling is “conservative.”

The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA estimate by 1% and lowered copper unit’s costs at Escondida and Spence going forward. Target price rises to  $49.4 from $46.8, and Buy retained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $49.40 Current Price is $40.98 Difference: $8.42
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.93, suggesting upside of 12.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 155.73 cents and EPS of 311.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 341.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 172.52 cents and EPS of 343.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.3, implying annual growth of 0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $5.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights Challenger’s 1H25 normalised net profit was slightly softer than expected but statutory profit was much weaker driven by adverse asset experience.

The company retained FY25 guidance, which implies a sharp improvement in 2H margins, and the broker is unconvinced this is likely.

The broker cut FY25 earnings forecast by -3.8% and FY26 by -5.1%, driven by weaker margin and softer book growth, offset partially by lower expenses. Target price drops to $7.3 from $7.6, Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.8
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 25.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 217.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.3, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Challenger’s 1H25 result missed Jarden’s estimates, driven by a deterioration in Life cash operating earnings (COE) margins. 

The company pointed to one-off impacts, but the broker is assuming a flatter trajectory, given headwinds from the RBA cash rate cut and benefit from a range of unquantified asset initiatives.

The broker’s revised FY25 net profit estimate is $445m, which sits towards the lower end of Challenger’s $440-480m guidance.

Target price cut to $7.6 from $7.7. Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $2.1
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.90, suggesting upside of 25.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 58.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 217.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 63.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.3, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD    CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $16.54

Wilsons rates ((CTD)) as Market Weight (3) –

Corporate Travel Management posted first half results that were stronger than Wilsons expected. Australasia and North America stood out along with around $600m in new clients.

The broker lowers FY25 EBITDA forecast by -6% amid a downward revision to guidance on Europe for the full year. With the stock positioned for coordinated global growth, attention is on what is a reasonable price to pay.

Wilsons assesses some execution risk, given recent delivery against guidance, and a Market Weight rating is maintained. Target is raised to $16.16 from $12.26.

This report was published on February 20, 2025.

Target price is $16.16 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If CTD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.63, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 74.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 30.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 41.90 cents and EPS of 88.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 23.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Buy (1) –

Deterra Royalties’s 1H25 EBITDA met Goldman Sachs’ forecast but net profit missed by -11%. Interim dividend of 9c was also below the broker’s 13.5c estimate.

The broker raised FY25-26 EBITDA forecasts by 1% each. Target price unchanged at $4.7, Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.68
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 14.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $7.98

Wilsons rates ((DTL)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Data#3 provided a strong first half result in a challenging environment, Wilsons assesses. The broker highlights services gross sales, with this the first period where services were meaningfully greater than product gross margin.

In light of this, and with the balance of risks to the upside over the coming year, the rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight. Wilsons increases FY25 revenue estimates by 3% and the target to $9.75 from $9.23.

This report was published on February 20, 2025.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.98 Difference: $1.77
If DTL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.17, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.20 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $7.58

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes Dexus will continue to face headwinds in both office and logistics, despite improving sentiment in office and the broader sector. 

The return of trading profits and confirmed performance fees will help fill the gap in the near term, but the broker notes investors will want to see an underlying funds from operations recovery.

The broker sees potential M&A references in the media as highly speculative given the weak cash generation and complexity of the business.

Neutral rating and $7.5 target price.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 5.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 62.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 64.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.5, implying annual growth of -1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.46

Goldman Sachs rates ((HMC)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs highlights HMC Capital’s 1H25 earnings of $140.5m beat consensus of $123.1m as higher funds under management resulted in higher-than-expected management fees and investment income.

The company continues to target over $50bn assets under management over the next 3-5 years which compares to Goldman’s current FY27 estimate of $49bn.

The broker raised FY25 and FY26 EPS forecast by 50% and 7% respectively. Target price rises to $12.30 from $9.86, and Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $1.84
If HMC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 161.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of -17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Underweight (4) –

HMC Capital’s 1H25 headline and underlying result was strong, Jarden notes, helped by significant asset under management growth and fees. 

The broker notes the results presentation showed good progress and execution on the planned unlisted funds across the verticals.

The analyst is forecasting 19% compounded annual growth in EPS in FY25-28, and is moving ahead of management guidance to reflect the strong momentum.

Underweight.rating and target price is $9.95.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $9.95 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 161.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of -17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFT    INFRATIL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $9.82

Jarden rates ((IFT)) as Overweight (2) –

Infratil’s has excerised pre-emptive rights to add 1.58% to its stake in CDC, taking it to 49.75%, at prices matching the highest bid received at the end of December.

Jarden estimates the implied uplift in value for Infratil’s existing stake from higher CDC valuation would equate to a NZ$1.91/sh gain. This would drop to NZ$1.53/sh if a maximum -20% deduction is allowed for incentive fees.

Target price rises to NZ$13.0 from NZ$12.7. Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Current Price is $9.82. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.17 cents and EPS of minus 0.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10791.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of -84.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.17 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 233.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 42.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $4.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ILU)) as Hold (3) –

Iluka’s underlying EBITDA of $499m was ahead of Canaccord Genuity’s $480m forecast but the beat was largely driven by a larger-than-expected positive inventory movement, the broker explains.

The company guided to FY25 total capex of -$1.08bn, broadly in line with the broker’s -$1.12bn estimate but above consensus of -$930m.

The broker notes the Eneabba project build is progressing but key risks such as offtake and utilisation remain. The analyst also sees risks around the company’s flagged feedstock options to fill the refinery.

Hold maintained and target price is $5.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: $0.44
If ILU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 33.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 75.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 27.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.30

Jarden rates ((MAH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights Macmahon’s 1H25 result underwhelmed relative to expectations, with margin delivery and higher net interest costs weighing on the reported earnings.

The company maintained FY25 guidance, but the broker reckons this will require a large step-up in the 2H.

The broker has tempered expectations, forecasting FY25 EBIT of $170m towards the mid-point of the $160-175m guidance, while estimating revenue of $2.5bn at top end of $2.4-2.5bn guidance.

Target price rises to 34c from 32c. Overweight maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.035
If MAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.35.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.98.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $16.20

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Monadelphous Group’s 1H25 core net profit of $43m was ahead of Jarden’s $36m estimate on strong improvement in group EBITDA margins.

Excluding insurance and forex impact, EBITDA margins still grew strongly, up 75bps year on year, Jarden suggests.

The broker has lifted long-run EBITDA margins estimate closer to 7% by FY27. The analyst raised FY25 EPS forecast by 3.8% and FY26 by 4.8%.

Target price rises to $16.1 from $13.5. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight following share price rise.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $16.20 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.77, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.90 cents and EPS of 76.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.8, implying annual growth of 26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 64.90 cents and EPS of 79.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPT    OPTHEA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.96

Wilsons rates ((OPT)) as Upgrade to Market Weight from Underweight (3) –

Opthea is expected to provide phase III readouts this year for its sozinibercept drug, and Wilsons considers the current share price assumes a positive outcome.

Full de-risking of the drug should support an unrisked price target of $2.08, the broker calculates, raising its target to $1.00 from $0.28.

If approved, Wilsons expects utilisation patterns of the drug to be dramatically different to protocol use in the phase III, noting the product specification as an add-on to the standard care in retinal disease remains controversial.

The rating is upgraded to Market Weight from Underweight.

This report was published on February 20, 2025.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.04
If OPT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.73.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORA)) as Re-instate at Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has re-instated Orora with a Neutral rating and target price of $2.4.

The broker has updated forecasts to reflect the recently completed sale of OPS North America distribution business, the associated debt reduction and announced buyback.

The forecasts also reflect 1H25 result, including Orora’s decision to shut its G1 glass furnace, which contributed $20m of EBIT in FY24. 

With Saverglass being the key catalyst in the broker’s view, the near/medium-term volume outlook remains a key risk. 

Beyond volumes, the impact of slowing or re-accelerating premiumisation trends, and competition on price and mix are key risks, the broker highlights.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.19
If ORA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of -19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $297.14

Moelis rates ((PME)) as Hold (3) –

Pro Medicus reported 1H25 revenue of $97.2m, up 31% y/y. Moelis highlights 1H25 missed consensus forecast on EBITDA by -2.5%.The miss was largely due to the timing of data migration revenue and new contract go-live.

Moelis highlights the company didn’t provide quantitative guidance but noted the pipeline remains ‘strong across all client classes’ and it is very happy with the replenishment rate of new contracts.

The broker left FY25-27 EPS estimates broadly unchanged and believes the company can continue to win new customers at an accelerated rate. Target price $285.5 and rating remains at Hold.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $285.50 Current Price is $297.14 Difference: minus $11.64 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 109.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 271.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.5, implying annual growth of 43.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 256.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 138.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 214.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of 48.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 173.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((RWC)) as Buy (1) –

Reliance Worldwide’s 1H25 revenue beat Goldman Sachs’ forecast by 2% mainly due to a pull forward of sales in the North America segment. 

EBITDA was 3% ahead of the broker’s estimate, with the company delivering 3% sales growth on a flat market index in the Americas and stable Asia-Pacific.

The broker highlights the key negative was EMEA and specifically the UK, where sales into the core plumbing and heating market declined -9%. This, the broker suggests, is a key area of uncertainty for the group.

The broker cut FY26 EBITDA estimate by -2% and is now -7% below consensus. Target price cut marginally to $6.00 from $6.05 but Buy rating stays.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.97
If RWC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.16 cents and EPS of 29.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.16 cents and EPS of 33.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Reliance Worldwide reported a solid 1H25 result, delivering on guidance but outlook for flat FY25 external revenue growth implies no improvement in market conditions.

Regionally, America recorded a strong 5.4% year-on-year revenue growth and Asia-Pacific saw only 0.2% y/y sales growth.

EMEA revenues fell 5% y/y, driven by UK plumbing and heating markets weakness, but the broker is encouraged by positive continental European markets (ex-Germany).

Target price cut marginally to $5.6 from $5.7, driven by average -1.0% downgrade to FY25-27 EBITDA estimates. Neutral rating retained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $0.57
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.63 cents and EPS of 29.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.09 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $26.09

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

Seek’s 1H25 EBITDA was -4% below Goldman Sachs’ forecast and net profit was -2% below. The company updated FY25 guidance, with revenue mid-point unchanged and total-expenditure lowered, but opex increasing.

This resulted in higher cash earnings estimate but lower EBITDA.

The broker cut FY25 EBITDA estimate by -3% and FY26 by -2%. The target price, however, rises to $24.0 from $21.5 on higher multiple of 16x reflecting the growth fund monetisation and improved cash earnings.

Sell maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $26.09 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 45.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SEK)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes Seek’s 1H25 result was somewhat messy at a headline level given a change in accounting policy for total expenditure, which resulted in a shift from capex to opex. 

EBITDA less capex, which removes the impact of the accounting policy change, beat the broker’s forecast by 7%.

The analyst upgraded its EBITDA less capex estimate in FY25 by 5% to $313m, following Seek’s updated guidance.

Rating remains at Buy and target price is $28.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.09 Difference: $1.91
If SEK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.21, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.40 cents and EPS of 42.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 46.60 cents and EPS of 58.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of 45.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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