ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED (ALK)
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16/02/2026

1

Buy

$2.05

24.24%

Interim earnings for Alkane Resources of $184m came in below Ord Minnett's $235m forecast due to a larger non-cash inventory adjustment linked to Mandalay (acquired last April). The impact is seen as largely one-off, with underlying earnings broadly in line.

FY26 guidance of 155-170koz at a -$2,600-2,900/oz cost (AISC) is unchanged, with 2H free cash flow leveraged to spot prices, highlight the analysts. Net cash of $232m and a valuation at 0.9x P/NAV are seen as compelling.

The analysts trim their FY26 earnings forecast but leave other forward estimates largely intact.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and target of $2.05.

FORECAST
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.60 cents.
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.

19/02/2026

1

Buy

$2.20

33.33%

Alkane Resources' Dec Q/first half result was better at earnings and profit levels driven primarily by slightly lower cost of goods sold, which flowed through the result. Moelis made some material reductions to its cost outlook at the quarterly result.

Moelis reiterates its positive view on Alkane, flagging it as one of the broker's key investment ideas in the gold space. Alkane's $2.20 price target, up from $1.80, allows for circa 25% upside despite the strong reaction to the result (14% intraday).

Free cash flow yield is currently forecast at 20% in FY28, rising to 27% in the same year under spot prices. Buy retained.

FORECAST
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.10 cents.
Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents.