Weekly Reports | Feb 28 2025
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden believes ANZ Bank is on track to deliver super asset quality outcomes and its material relative valuation appeal is difficult to ignore. CommBank's ((CBA)) PE is 2x premium vs ANZ, the broker notes, as it upgrades the bank to Overweight from Neutral.
The analyst likes the Suncorp ((SUN)) Bank acquisition and notes incoming CEO Nuno Matos brings valuable experience in retail banking.
The 1Q25 update showed a 4% q/q rise in net lending assets, driven mainly by insto. Asset quality remains benign and CET1 at 11.55% was a tad lighter than expected, the broker notes.
Target price is $30.50.
ENVIROSUITE LIMITED ((EVS)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Wilsons analysts have upgraded Envirosuite to Overweight from Market Weight, maintaining the price target at $0.06. The company's 1H25 financial result proved in line with expectations, with revenue flat at $29.5m and EBITDA improving to $0.2m.
Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 9% to $65.7m, exceeding forecasts, while project sales doubled to $6m, indicating stronger future growth.
Management highlighted progress with NAV Canada and NASA contracts, as well as an upcoming deal via the Hitachi partnership. The broker sees upside potential from further ARR expansion and increasing traction in environmental monitoring markets.
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AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED ((AIA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Auckland International Airport's 1H25 normalised net profit missed Jarden's forecast by -NZ$15m, though the miss at EBITDAFI line was somewhat smaller at -NZ$7m. The airport's net profit guidance range of NZ$290-320m reflects a NZ$10m lift at the bottom end, the broker notes.
The broker highlights a worsening outlook for the fleet with ongoing engine maintenance delays alongside planned interior refurbishments suggesting 15-20% of its jet fleet will be out of service over the next two years. The analyst has factored these worsening projections into the near-term forecasts, reducing overall passenger volumes by a further -3-5%.
Net profit forecasts for FY25-27 cut by -4-8% on lower aeronautical and retail revenues linked to lower passenger volumes.Target price cut to NZ$8.00 from NZ$8.21, and rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight.
AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Austal's 1H25 EBIT was ahead of Petra Capital's forecast due to higher non-sales revenue, and margin improved 66bps to 5%.
The broker notes this bodes well for the outlook, given the order book and tender pipeline, current productivity initiatives and pending REA outcome.
The company tweaked FY25 guidance to "not less than $80m" EBIT from $80m, and consistent with this, the broker lifted EBIT estimate by 11%.
Target price unchanged at $4.07. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy as stock is now considered trading at fair value.
MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED ((MYX)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Cosette Pharma entered into a scheme of arrangement to acquire Mayne Pharma for $7.4/share or $672m. Canaccord Genuity believes this represents healthy value and upside for both parties.
The broker notes the board and majority shareholder Viburnum support the transaction, and the analyst would be surprised by a competing bid.
No changes to forecasts, with the broker looking forward to the 1H25 result for more colour on the transaction. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, and target price lifts to $7.40 from $6.25.
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