Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 19, 2025

This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB

The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABB   AIA   CTM   EBR   EDV   NHC   NUZ   RMS   SIG   SLC   SMP (2)   SPK   SPR   SPZ   TLS   TPG   TYR  

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((ABB)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes the recent reporting season was mixed for telecoms, resulting in a -8% to 1% revision in first-year EBITDA forecasts and a -26% to 6% change in total shareholder return since February 1.

The broker has examined key operational trends in a report, highlighting free cash flow estimates for FY26. Going ahead, the broker will focus on strategic updates.

The broker forecasts Aussie Broadband’s dividends to grow. No change to $3.90 target price and Neutral rating.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ABB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.70, suggesting upside of 20.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 40.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 40.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.25

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Neutral (3) –

Auckland International Airport will sign an 8-year contract with Lagardere as the sole duty-free operator, from the JV model it has been operating since 2015.

There will be disruption for fit-outs lasting nine months from the start date because the current layout is designed for two competing operators.

Jarden is forecasting a -1% decline in income/passengers in FY26 with the disruption partly offset by some mix shift towards higher spending international passengers.

The broker re-iterated its FY25 net profit forecast of NZ$309m, vs the company’s NZ$209-320m guidance range.

Target price unchanged at NZ$8.00 and Neutral rating retained.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Current Price is $7.25. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.11 cents and EPS of 17.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.20 cents and EPS of 18.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTM    CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.38

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Centaurus Metals has been granted the installation licence for Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Brazil which will allow more site preparation while it awaits the mining lease, likely in the next few months.

Canaccord Genuity notes the company is in discussion for strategic partnerships and a -10% project sell-down at the final investment decision stage (later in 2025) would leave it with a -US$360m funding gap.

The broker expects this to be bridged with a mix of equity and debt.

Target price unchanged at 80c with a Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.425
If CTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.88.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.79.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBR    EBR SYSTEMS INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.73

Wilsons rates ((EBR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons raised both initial and long-term average selling price assumptions for EBR Systems’ WiSE-CRT system.

The initial pricing estimate is US$45,000, up US$10,000 from the company’s IPO estimate, and the long-term pricing forecast is doubled to US$30,000.

The broker’s confidence comes from SOLVE-CRT (which evaluates WiSE’s safety) clearing the FDA’s trial and pre-approval inspections.

Target price is lifted to $3.50 from $1.62, reflecting an anticipation of FDA approval and a rise in selling price forecasts.

The broker estimates an un-risked price of up to $8.50. Overweight.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $1.775
If EBR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.16.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.22.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EDV    ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $4.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((EDV)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs expects Endeavour Group’s liquor business to remain under pressure due to a structural decline in per capita volume, and cyclical trade-down by consumers amid cost of living pressures. 

The broker is positive about the Dan Murphy brand but thinks BWS is losing its convenience differentiator edge.

The broker lowered the group sales forecast by -1% across three years mainly due to the retail businesses losing market share. EBIT forecasts see deeper cuts with -4% for FY25 and -5% for FY26 on a lower margin forecast.

Target price drops to $4.50 from $5.10. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.46
If EDV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of -12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 10.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

New Hope’s 1H25 result was broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ estimates. The broker believes the $100m share buy-back plan signals management considers the shares to be undervalued after recent weakness.

The broker expects continued ramp-up at New Acland following the end of the legal dispute with Oakley Coal Action Alliance, but this also means higher capex.

The analyst expects production to reach 5Mpta by FY27 through the development of the Manning Vale West mining area.

However, the key negative is the outlook for thermal coal with the broker forecasting lower prices in 2025 on softer global demand and more supply.

Target price cut to $4.30 from $4.40. Sell maintained.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.27
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.69, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.3, implying annual growth of 1.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.7, implying annual growth of -15.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUZ    NEURIZON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.10

Petra Capital rates ((NUZ)) as Buy (1) –

Neurizon Therapeutics has proactively decided to conduct two short-term animal PK studies that it hopes will resolve the clinical hold placed by the US FDA on NUZ-001. The tests will take four months.

Petra Capital estimates the cost impact to be minimal and already factored in. 

Provided the FDA green light is obtained, the broker expects dosing to start in 4Q2025 and results in 2Q2027, which will open a path to faster approval.

Target price of 45c and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.351
If NUZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 355% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.30.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.09.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.19

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Ramelius Resources and Spartan Resources ((SPR)) have entered into an agreement where Ramelius will take its stake to 100% (from 19.9%) via a combination of shares and cash. 

Canaccord Genuity notes the deal is at 11% premium to Spartan’s closing share price on March 14.

If unsuccessful, Ramelius will undertake a conditional off-market takeover offer, but three shareholders owning 18.9% of the target’s equity are already favouring the scheme and the takeover offer.

The broker notes the deal would make Ramelius the largest mid-tier Australian gold producer with a market cap of $4.2bn.

The analyst’s standalone valuation for Ramelius is $3.317bn and for Spartan is $2.667bn, and the proforma valuation for the combination is $5.372bn.

Target price for Ramelius is unchanged at $2.9 and the rating remains Buy.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.71
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 65.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of -34.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIG    SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $2.95

Goldman Sachs rates ((SIG)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage of Sigma Healthcare with Neutral rating and target price of $2.70.

The broker believes the merged entity (following the reverse take-over by Chemist Warehouse) has several competitive advantages including 15 distribution centres across Australia/NZ, CW network pharmacies and attractive store unit economics.

The broker reckons Sigma Healthcare will have the highest compounded annual EPS growth rate vs global retailer peers, and expects strong free cash flow and less than 1% capex-to-revenue ratio.

Until the FY25 result in August, the broker expects the market to focus on CW sales growth rate and synergy realisation.

This report was published on March 16, 2025.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting downside of -8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.1, implying annual growth of 604.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 94.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of 71.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $2.14

Goldman Sachs rates ((SLC)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs notes the recent reporting season was mixed for telecoms, resulting in a -8% to 1% revision in first-year EBITDA forecasts and a -26% to 6% change in total shareholder return since February 1.

The broker has examined key operational trends in a report, highlighting free cash flow (FCF) estimates for FY26. Going ahead, the broker will focus on strategic updates.

No change to $2.10 target price and Sell rating.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If SLC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 23.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SMP)) as Buy (1) –

SmartPay received a takeover offer from Tyro Payments ((TYR)) and another global company speculated to be Shift4 Payments. The company granted due diligence to both parties and has reciprocal due diligence with Tyro.

From Tyro’s point of view, Canaccord Genuity considers the strategic rationale for the acquisition to be sound. The broker estimates cost synergies would need to be over $20m for the deal to be accretive as a full scrip merger at 73c Tyro share price. 

The broker thinks the offer price of NZ$1.00 undervalues Smartpay and is unlikely to be accepted but because of two offers, the deal would get competitive. 

Target price of $1.20 and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.39
If SMP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 445.05.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.78.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((SMP)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes SmartPay has once again received M&A interest, this time from Tyro Payments ((TYR)) and an unnamed global company which it believes is Shift4.

Smartpay has granted due diligence to the two parties, with reciprocal also granted by Tyro. 

The broker believes key areas of focus during the due diligence process would be migration costs, synergies and the specifics of entering the NZ market, where SmartPay has the biggest edge.

Overweight rating and $1.32 target price.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.51
If SMP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 127.16.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.68.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPK    SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $1.93

Goldman Sachs rates ((SPK)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes the recent reporting season was mixed for telecoms, resulting in a -8% to 1% revision in first-year EBITDA forecasts and a -26% to 6% change in total shareholder return since February 1.

The broker has examined key operational trends in a report, highlighting free cash flow (FCF) estimates for FY26. Going ahead, the broker will focus on strategic updates.

In the case of Spark New Zealand, the broker expects NZ17.8c FCF in FY26. The broker believes dividend sustainability will be an issue and it will be cut materially, depending on balance sheet strength.

Target price of NZ$2.75 and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Current Price is $1.93. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.76 cents and EPS of 11.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.21 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPR    SPARTAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Ramelius Resources ((RMS)) and Spartan Resources have entered into an agreement where Ramelius will take its stake to 100% (from 19.9%) via a combination of shares and cash. 

Canaccord Genuity notes the deal is at 11% premium to Spartan’s closing share price on March 14.

If unsuccessful, Ramelius will undertake a conditional off-market takeover offer, but three shareholders owning 18.9% of the target’s equity are already favouring the scheme and the takeover offer.

The broker notes the deal would make Ramelius the largest mid-tier Australian gold producer with a market cap of $4.2bn. The analyst’s standalone valuation for Ramelius is $3.317bn and for Spartan is $2.667bn, and the proforma valuation for the combination is $5.372bn.

Target price for Spartan is $2.1 and rating remains Speculative Buy.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.34
If SPR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 88.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.85

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Following Smart Parking’s 1H25 result, Canaccord Genuity made minor changes to its core EBITDA forecasts but those increased after factoring in the acquisition of US-based Peak Parking.

The broker lifted EBITDA forecasts for FY25 and FY26 by 8% and 31% respectively, offset by share dilution. The analyst reckons the acquisition multiple was undemanding given Peak Parking’s business quality and solid revenue growth.

The broker believes the share price weakness post-acquisition provides an entry point as it was driven by macro factors.

Target price rises to $1.25 from $1.10. Buy retained. 

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.4
If SPZ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.42.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.09

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes the recent reporting season was mixed for telecoms, resulting in a -8% to 1% revision in first-year EBITDA forecasts and a -26% to 6% change in total shareholder return since February 1.

The broker has examined key operational trends in a report, highlighting free cash flow (FCF) estimates for FY26. Going ahead, the broker will focus on strategic updates.

In the case of Telstra Group, the broker expects sufficient FCF to be generated in FY26 even after factoring in NBN True-up payments.

No change to $4.50 target price and Buy rating.

This report was published on March 18, 2025.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.41
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of 35.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.0, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.56

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPG)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs notes the recent reporting season was mixed for telecoms, resulting in a -8% to 1% revision in first-year EBITDA forecasts and a -26% to 6% change in total shareholder return since February 1.

The broker has examined key operational trends in a report, highlighting free cash flow (FCF) estimates for FY26. Going ahead, the broker will focus on strategic updates.

In the case of TPG Telecom, the broker forecasts 29.9c FCF in FY26, providing ample scope to increase dividends from the estimated 18c.

No change to $4.20 target price and Sell rating.

This report was published on March 19, 2025.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.56 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TYR    TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TYR)) as Buy (1) –

Tyro Payments made a conditional takeover bid for Smartpay Holdings ((SMP)) but another global company speculated to be Shift4 Payments has also made an offer.

Smartpay has granted due diligence to both parties and has reciprocal due diligence with Tyro.

Canaccord Genuity considers the strategic rationale for the acquisition to be sound, but estimates cost synergies would need to be over $20m for the deal to be accretive as a full scrip merger at 73c Tyro share price. 

The broker thinks the offer price of NZ$1.00 undervalues Smartpay and is unlikely to be accepted, but because of two offers the deal would get competitive. 

Target price of $1.65 and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on March 17, 2025.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.76 Difference: $0.895
If TYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 62.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of -34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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