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The tussle between short interests in Australian uranium stocks continues with brokers questioning the resilience as supply/demand fundamentals support uranium prices and nuclear energy.
-New trend: European countries doing an about face on nuclear energy
-Geo-politics continues to cloud the outlook for U308 supply
-Australian companies are stress tested for lower uranium prices
-ASX Shorts not backing down
By Danielle Ecuyer
Against a backdrop of burgeoning growth in demand for nuclear energy, and ergo demand in uranium, supply challenges are also heightened.
Short interests have upped the ante, pushing a fifth Australian U308 stock into the top twenty of most shorted companies on the ASX.
Unpacking the latest demand, supply dynamics
European resistance to ongoing nuclear energy has continued to decline, most notably with the latest announcement from Germany’s new government under Chancellor Merz. Germany would no longer thwart French efforts to ensure nuclear power is treated like renewable energy in EU regulation.
The FT reports the change has come about as Germany looks to join France’s nuclear shield as a deterrent against any future Russian aggression. Austria is the only remaining EU state opposed to nuclear power.
Belgium’s federal parliament voted to repeal the 2003 nuclear phase-out law last week on May 15, effectively ending the country’s long-standing plan to eliminate nuclear power when existing facilities retired.
This decision allows for the construction of new reactors and extends the operation of existing ones, such as Doel 4 and Tihange 3, until at least 2035.
A day earlier, Denmark announced it is re-assessing its 40-year ban on nuclear energy, originally imposed in 1985. The government plans to study the potential of newer nuclear technologies, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs), with a comprehensive report expected next year.
Spain’s Congress approved a non-binding proposal urging the government to reconsider its nuclear phase-out plans, which aimed to close all reactors by 2035, in February this year. The proposal reflects growing concerns about energy reliability and the role of nuclear power in achieving climate targets.
In February 2025, the Italian government adopted a plan to return to nuclear power nearly 40 years after it was banned by a 1987 referendum. The plan includes the construction of advanced modular reactors to produce sustainable nuclear energy and decarbonise the most polluting industries.
In January, the Swiss government proposed reversing the country’s decision to phase out nuclear power, responding to a popular initiative advocating for the inclusion of all climate-friendly electricity generation methods, including nuclear.
The Swiss proposal aims to overturn the 2017 referendum ban on new nuclear plant construction.
Nuclear lobbying and legal tensions
The global uranium and nuclear energy landscape has seen a wave of significant developments over the past week, reflecting both political tensions and shifting energy policies.
In the United States, the nuclear industry is ramping up lobbying efforts to preserve subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act. Companies such as Oklo, backed by Sam Altman, have dramatically increased their lobbying budgets amid concerns the removal of tax credits could jeopardise small modular reactor (SMR) initiatives and broader clean energy ambitions.
French uranium firm Orano is entangled in a legal standoff with the military-led government of Niger. The company has launched legal action following the arrest of its director and police raids on its Niamey offices.
With over five decades of operations in the country, Orano is now reportedly considering divesting its uranium assets in Niger, citing growing political instability and operational risks.
US Interior Department has fast-tracked approval for Anfield Energy’s Velvet-Wood uranium mine project in Utah.
As part of President Trump’s broader push for domestic energy production, the environmental review process was shortened to just 14 days.
Anfield also plans to reopen its Shootaring Canyon mill to bolster uranium processing capacity in the US nuclear supply chain.
SPUT placement eases concerns
Concerns over the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) were alleviated last week with the completion of a US$25.55m private placement of trust units.
Canaccord Genuity views the placement as an optimistic sign, with investors realising a -9% loss on the trade as units are priced below the net asset value.
The issue also alleviates concerns SPUT would need to sell U3O8 to fund operations.
The CEO of Sprott Asset Management John Ciampaglia stated:
“Since the Trust was launched in 2021, it has purchased approximately 48 million pounds of U3O8 and not sold or loaned out a single pound. I would like to take this opportunity to strongly reiterate that SPUT has the tools, including this private placement, to deliver on its intention not to sell any of the physical uranium that SPUT holds on behalf of thousands of investors.”
Kazatomprom delays pressure uranium outlook
In further positive news, Kazakhstan’s Budenovskoye uranium project, a joint venture between Kazatomprom (51%) and Russia’s Rosatom (49%), is experiencing significant delays, raising concerns about global uranium supply.
Initially, production from sections 6 and 7 was projected to reach 2,500 tonnes in 2024, with plans to scale up to 6,000 tonnes by 2026.
However, recent reports indicate 2024 production is now expected to be only 500 tonnes, with the 6,000-tonne target postponed to 2027.
The delays are attributed to a combination of factors, including disputes among shareholders over contractor selection, shortages of sulphuric acid essential for uranium extraction, and construction setbacks at the site.
These issues have led Kazatomprom to revise its 2025 production forecast downward by -17%, from an initial estimate of 30,500-31,500 tonnes to a range of 25,000-26,500 tonnes.
The project’s challenges are further compounded by geopolitical tensions. The 2022 sale of a -49% stake in Budenovskoye to Rosatom, reportedly pushed through by Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund without full consent from Kazatomprom’s management, led to the resignation of several senior executives.
The deal has raised concerns about the influence of Russian interests on Kazakhstan’s uranium industry.
U3O8 price lifts but remains below 2025 open
The announcements, along with increased demand from utilities, realised a lift in the U3O8 TradeTech spot price to US$71/lb, up US$1 or 1.4% in the last week, and up 9.2% over the past month.
The price does remain down -22% on a year earlier and remains below the start of 2025 by -6.6%.
TradeTech’s U3O8 mid-term price indicator came in at US$72/lb, unchanged, and the long-term price indicator remains at US$80/lb.
Carry trades support price stability
In the uranium market, carry trades refer to contractual transactions where a trader or intermediary buys uranium at the spot price, stores it, and then delivers it to a utility under a future-dated contract at a premium price.
This strategy earns the trader a “carry”; the difference between the purchase and sales price while covering costs like storage, financing, and insurance.
Canaccord Genuity estimates a large portion of the volumes in the spot market comes from carry trades, which are estimated at up to 4mlbs in 2025 or 10mlbs annualised, which is a significant rise on the historical average over the last five years of 35mlbs.
With an 11% rise in the U3O8 spot price from the March 17 550-day low around US$63.45/lb, the analyst retains break-even at an estimated US$71-US$72/lb, which is viewed as a “quasi floor” under the spot price.
Utilities dominate 2024 spot purchases
Canaccord Genuity proposes the purchasing behaviour from utilities has had an impact in recent times, a view TradeTech also outlined recently.
The interplay with higher spot pricing over term prices, combined with geopolitical concerns and more notably tariffs, has kept utilities on the sidelines.
Canaccord notes utilities purchased over 75% of overall spot volumes in 2024, and longer-term demand-side drivers are likely to form the basis for a breakout in the term price as utilities need to move back into the market.
The drivers are listed as follows by the broker:
–Increasing demand from reactor life extensions, restarts, and new builds, notably in China. As highlighted in last week’s Uranium Weekly:
“Morgan Stanley stresses the same point, detailing China is leading the way globally in nuclear reactors, having approved another ten new reactors in April. This is the fourth consecutive year China has approved ten or more new developments.
[researcher] Oregon Group states China has 58 operable reactors with 158 proposed. In comparison, the US has 94 operable reactors with 13 proposed, and Russia 36 in operation and 51 proposed.
India has 24 with 28 proposed. Globally, 362 reactors are proposed compared to 440 operable.”
For more details https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/13/uranium-week-a-fundamental-disconnect/
–Primary supply remains “fragile” with challenges on mine restarts and ramp-ups as well as geopolitical issues.
–Declining secondary supply. The analyst estimates around 40mlbs of secondary supply met base demand in 2024, which is circa 21% of demand compared to the historical rate at around 35%. Future demand will need to be supplied by primary production.
-A lack of high enough incentive pricing for new producers to move forward on projects, including Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) and Deep Yellow ((DYL)). Rising costs are also challenging the incentives for new production.
-Term contracting remains well below replacement rates and previous cycle averages, which is not viewed as sustainable as demand increases.
Canaccord reckons a base in the U308 term price at US$80/lb has been put in place over the last year and the “stage is set for the next leg up”.
The analyst suggests a stronger second half of 2025, including easing geo-political tensions, which should support more interest in contracting, as well as the entrance of large utilities into the market after a hiatus period.
Historically the sector can experience steep upward price moves after a period of consolidation and stability.
Broker positioning and ASX short interest
Canaccord reiterates its positive take on uranium and uranium stocks despite the rally of around 19% in share prices over the last month.
Valuations are viewed as not challenging. The preferred exposure is with Paladin Energy ((PDN)), rated Buy, target price $12.80, Silex Systems ((SLX)), Speculative Buy, target price $6.46 in Australia, and NexGen Energy ((NXG)) in Canada, Speculative Buy, target price CA$15.00.
Ord Minnett has put pen to paper again, updating its uranium stock coverage and stress-testing the resilience of companies if the term price is lower than the broker’s base case, which assumes the term price returns to a long-term estimate of US$80/lb.
Modelling for two scenarios, including term prices at US$80/lb and spot at US$73/lb and secondly, term prices at US$70/lb and spot prices at US$63/lb (the bear case), the analyst highlights free cash flow yield remains “significant” for all stocks.
Paladin retains a target price of $9.50 and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) of 35c, Buy rated and Speculative Buy, respectively.
While the target price for Boss Energy ((BOE)) is upgraded to $6 from $4.50 under the scenario of a possible “short squeeze”, which the broker believes seems “inevitable“.
As at May 12, the ASX has five uranium stocks in the top 20 of most shorted, up from four the week before: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/the-short-report/
Boss retains the top position with total shorts down slightly to 23.59% from 24.85%; Paladin is the second most shorted at 15.47% from 16.24% a week earlier. Deep Yellow is at position five at 12.31% from 12.41%; Lotus at sixteenth at 8.42% from 9.01%, and Bannerman at nineteenth, 8.16% from 7.35%.
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 16/05/2025 | 0.0700 |  60.00% |
$0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 16/05/2025 | 0.1200 |  – 4.17% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 16/05/2025 | 0.0300 | -12.50% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | $0.100 | 233.3% |
|
| AKN | 16/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 16/05/2025 | 0.0500 | 3.77% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 16/05/2025 | 0.5200 | 2.97% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 16/05/2025 | 2.6100 | – 9.77% |
$4.87 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 80.1% |
|
| BOE | 16/05/2025 | 3.5800 | – 5.58% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 188.4 | $3.973 | 11.0% |
| BSN | 16/05/2025 | 0.0140 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 16/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 16/05/2025 | 0.0900 | 35.62% |
$0.16 | $0.06 | $0.090 | ||
| CXU | 16/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 16/05/2025 | 0.0800 | 3.75% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 16/05/2025 | 1.2000 | – 7.41% |
$1.83 | $0.75 | -1210.0 | $1.570 | 30.8% |
| EL8 | 16/05/2025 | 0.2900 | – 9.38% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 16/05/2025 | 0.0030 | -50.00% |
$0.05 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 16/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 16/05/2025 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 16/05/2025 | 0.0600 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 16/05/2025 | 0.0600 | – 3.64% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 16/05/2025 | 0.0900 | 0.00% | $1.03 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 16/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 16/05/2025 | 0.7200 | 0.00% | $1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 16/05/2025 | 0.1700 | 0.00% | $0.49 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 91.2% |
|
| MEU | 16/05/2025 | 0.0500 | 6.82% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 16/05/2025 | 8.3600 | – 3.31% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 75.2% |
|
| ORP | 16/05/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 16/05/2025 | 5.6100 | – 9.23% |
$17.98 | $3.93 | -241.3 | $8.507 | 51.6% |
| PEN | 16/05/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.44 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 16/05/2025 | 3.0500 | 8.22% |
$6.72 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 113.1% |
|
| TOE | 16/05/2025 | 0.1900 | – 2.50% |
$0.41 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 16/05/2025 | 0.0300 | – 9.38% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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