Daily Market Reports | May 29 2025
This story features EBOS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EBO
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
A quieter and more risk off tone led overseas markets lower on Wednesday, with a stronger USD pushing down the price of gold. The ASX200, after a flat session yesterday, is pointing to a slightly positive opening for today’s session.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8430.00 | + 13.00 | 0.15% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8396.90 | – 10.70 | – 0.13% |
| S&P500 | 5888.55 | – 32.99 | – 0.56% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19100.94 | – 98.23 | – 0.51% |
| DJIA | 42098.70 | – 244.95 | – 0.58% |
| S&P500 VIX | 19.31 | + 0.35 | 1.85% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.48 | + 0.04 | 0.97% |
| USD Index | 99.81 | + 0.32 | 0.32% |
| FTSE100 | 8726.01 | – 52.04 | – 0.59% |
| DAX30 | 24038.19 | – 188.30 | – 0.78% |
Good Morning,
overseas markets edged lower overnight, but post market close earnings reports from Nvidia and Salesforce have pointed to better-than-expected results, with both technology stocks trading higher in the US aftermarket.
S&P500 futures are also higher. The AI-trade, for now, remains intact.
Importance of Nvidia, by Chris Weston, Head of Research Pepperstone
After a damp session in US cash equity with all S&P500 sectors closing in the red, Nvidia hit the market with a solid set of numbers just after the close, and any fears of missing the mark have been put to bed. NAS100 and SPX500 futures have found a bid in response to NVDAs numbers and its guidance, rising +0.6% with NVDA +4.3% in after-hours trade, while Marvell, Broadcom, ARM and AMD have all felt the tailwinds and trade higher in sympathy.
The market had covered shorts hard going into Nvidia’s numbers and ran a sizeable long position in NVDA cash equity. Those set-in longs would be pleased, not just by the reaction from the collective to bid up the stock after hours, but that the business is performing admirably, and set for a strong quarter ahead and even more so in 2H26.
The beat on Q1 revenue and gross margins set the platform for the solid aftermarket reaction, but the guidance for Q2 sales and gross margins has resonated, setting the company up nicely going forward, with Blackwell ramp the fastest in the company’s history and in full production, and global demand for AI infrastructure showing “incredibly strong” demand.
While there remains some uncertainty about its ongoing sales to China and other regions (such as Singapore), and as CEO Jensen Huang detailed, China will move forward with AI with or without US chips. However, going forward Investors will presumably look for NVDA to hit the high side on earnings expectations and overdeliver in the upcoming quarters.
The earnings move sees the stock up 64% off the April lows and now just -7% from all-time highs, so the question is whether to commit new money to work on the long side at these levels or buy whatever weakness is offered in the near term.
Nvidia does have a past form with its share price rolling over the in the days following the last three earnings reports, so the risk of a sell the fact is there.
Asia should open on a mixed note, with the ASX200 set to open a touch above 8400 and we look to see if the buyers can support the open or see a repeat of Wednesday’s intraday move with traders selling early strength.
What happened overnight: Extract ANZ Bank Australian Morning Focus
Major US and European equity indices were weaker, but oil prices rose due to concerns about possible additional US sanctions on Russia.
The US S&P500 was down -0.6%. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 and the FTSE 100 indices closed -0.7% and -0.6% lower respectively.
In bond markets, the yield on the bellwether US 10y Treasury bond was 3bps higher at 4.47%.
In commodity markets, the active WTI oil future was up 1.4% to US$61.8/bbl, while gold was down -0.2% to US$3,295.9/oz.
Fed minutes signalled that policymakers are worried about the effect of tariffs, which the committee noted were “significantly larger and broader than they had anticipated”, on inflation and employment, encompassing both parts of the Fed’s dual mandate.
The minutes noted that “Overall, participants judged that downside risks to employment and economic activity and upside risks to inflation had risen, primarily reflecting the potential effects of tariff increases”.
The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index improved slightly to -9 in May vs -13 in April. The business conditions index rose to -18 vs -30.
The data still indicate a contraction and are consistent with weak readings from other regional Fed manufacturing surveys.
In contrast, the S&P PMI flash data for May pointed to an expansion.
The ECB’s consumer expectations survey showed that April median inflation expectations in the next 12 months rose slightly to 3.1% from 2.9% in March.
The median expectation for medium-term inflation was stable at 2.5%.
The 5yr inflation expectation was unchanged at 2.1%.
Inflation concerns continue to worry US policymakers. NY Fed’s Williams said he is worried about the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored.
Short-term inflation expectations surged recently on the back of tariff concerns, with University of Michigan’s preliminary May 1yr inflation expectations up at 7.3%.
His comments affirm the FOMC’s wait-and-see approach.
Where tariff rates settle and what they mean for domestic macro configuration will determine the timing of the Fed’s next move.
We expect the earliest the Fed will have room to cut rates will be at its September meeting.
Commodities Overnight, ANZ Bank
Crude oil gained as concerns over supply disruptions rose.
President Trump warned that President Putin was playing with fire by escalating attacks on Ukraine.
This comes after CNN reported earlier this week that Trump is considering new sanctions against Russia after large drone attacks.
Reports also emerged that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu is pressing on with threats to disrupt talks between Washington and Tehran by striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
The situation threatens to disrupt the relative calm that has emerged in the region in recent months.
The market was also keeping a close eye on OPEC. The group met to discuss the current production quotas, with members ratifying current levels for this year and next.
They also agree to develop a mechanism for setting production baselines in 2027 based on their maximum sustainable capacity.
The decision by eight members of the OPEC-Plus alliance to extend its 411kb/d hikes into July will be finalised in a call on Saturday.
European gas prices settled lower as storage injections continue at a steady pace. Europe is gradually adding gas to depleted storage sites despite seasonal works at production facilities, such as in Norway.
Even so, Germany, one of the biggest users of gas in the region, ruled out intervention by the regulator should it fail to meet its legal obligations around target levels.
The country recently lowered its storage target to 70% to ease pressure on the market.
However, should it fail to reach that, prices could spike if next winter ends up being relatively cold.
North Asia LNG edged lower amid subdued demand in the spot market. LNG inventories held by Japan’s utilities jumped to 2.16mt, the highest level in two months due to mild weather cutting power demand.
Power prices also slipped on the milder-than-normal weather. The country’s demand for LNG imports is also likely to decline from previous months, and gas generation is set to be lower as two nuclear reactors come back from maintenance.
Ship tacking data shows that the 30- day average of LNG imports is below the five-year average for this time of the year.
The base metals sector remained under pressure as a stronger USD crimped investor appetite.
Nevertheless, signs of tightness across several markets continues to underpin a longer-term bullish narrative.
Copper stockpiles on the London Metal Exchange fell to their lowest level in almost two years, as traders continue to withdraw supplies from warehouses in Rotterdam.
Inventories now stand at only 83kt, following a -3kt decline yesterday.
Talks between Chilean copper miner Antofagasta and Chinese smelters have also highlighted the tightness in the concentrate market.
Antofagasta has proposed a negative treatment charge of US$15/t for contracted supplies over the next year.
While spot treatment charges have been trading in negative levels for more than a year, long term contracts have remained positive.
The stronger USD continued to create headwinds for the precious metal sector. Investor demand for gold has also been impacted by easing trade tensions.
EU’s trade chief, Maros Sefcovic said he plans to speak with US officials on Thursday as the EU has sought to fast track negotiations to reach a deal ahead of the 9 July deadline.
In other news: NAB Markets Today Research
In an amusing aside, President Trump was asked about the ‘TACO Trade’, the acronym that is Trump Always Chickens Out.
While he clearly was not amused, calling it ‘a nasty question’, he did clarify his method of setting a “ridiculous high number” for tariffs before negotiating down in exchange for concessions: “After I did what I did, they said, We’ll meet anytime you want,'” “You call that chickening out?” “It’s called negotiation”.
Closer to home, the RBNZ cut rates yesterday by -25bps to 3.25%, but was seen more hawkish then expected/positioned.
The 2-year swap rate rising as much as 14bps, before closing up just under 11bps for the day at 3.27%. The market still sees scope for further RBNZ easing, albeit with less conviction on the short-term path. Another -25bps rate is fully priced and with a small chance of an additional cut, with a terminal rate close to 2.95%.
Finally, in Australia yesterday the Monthly CPI indicator rose 2.4% yoy in April after 2.4% in March (NAB 2.5%, Consensus 2.3%).
Annual trimmed mean was 2.8% from 2.7%.
The most important outcome was a 0.5% mom lift in New Dwelling Purchase prices after a string of soft prints.
New Dwellings is the largest category in the CPI, worth 8% of the basket, and the slowdown in this category has been a key driver of faster disinflation recently.
NAB tentatively revised up our Q2 trimmed mean forecast to 0.7% QoQ from 0.6%. Beyond New Dwellings, there was little new information for the evolution of domestic inflation pressures
Corporate news in Australia
-Tetratherix is looking to at a $115m IPO on the ASX, the company is involved in regenerative therapies.
-UBS has a block trade worth $880m in EBOS Group ((EBO)) shares from Sybos Holdings.
-The Federal Government has approved the extension of Woodside Energy’s ((WDS)) North West Shelf project.
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) has disclosed it has been forced to borrow more money from a larger group of banks to fund the US$8.75bn buyout of Azek.
-The demerger of Ango American’s platinum division, a former “poison pill” for would be suitors, may pave the way for another bid by BHP Group ((BHP)).
On the calendar today:
-NZ ANZ May bus confidence
-AU 1Q Private Capital
-US 1Q GDP
-US 1Q PCE
-MA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MAF)) AGM
-TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) ex-div 6.60c (65%)
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3312.20 | – 14.99 | – 0.45% |
| Silver (oz) | 33.09 | – 0.30 | – 0.88% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.67 | – 0.06 | – 1.36% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.12 | – 0.01 | – 0.52% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.79 | – 0.14 | – 2.03% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.22 | – 0.01 | – 0.64% |
| West Texas Crude | 61.88 | + 0.80 | 1.31% |
| Brent Crude | 64.33 | + 0.59 | 0.93% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 99.39 | – 0.09 | – 0.09% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 28 May 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (May) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8396.90 | 0.43% | 3.33% | 7.06% | 2.91% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ADT | Adriatic Metals | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | Neutral | Citi |
| GMG | Goodman Group | Outperform | Macquarie |
| RRL | Regis Resources | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| S32 | South32 | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| TLS | Telstra Group | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS | ||
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EBO - EBOS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAF - MA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TNE - TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WDS - WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED