Daily Market Reports | May 30 2025
This story features RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RHC
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
US markets rose slightly overnight, reacting to the off and on again tariff updates, with a rally in Nvidia shares providing support to the S&P500 and Nasdaq.
After another positive month for the ASX200 (up 3.5% to date), the futures are pointing to a soft open for the final Friday of May.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8398.00 | – 23.00 | – 0.27% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8409.80 | + 12.90 | 0.15% |
| S&P500 | 5912.17 | + 23.62 | 0.40% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19175.87 | + 74.93 | 0.39% |
| DJIA | 42215.73 | + 117.03 | 0.28% |
| S&P500 VIX | 19.18 | – 0.13 | – 0.67% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.42 | – 0.05 | – 1.18% |
| USD Index | 99.28 | – 0.53 | – 0.53% |
| FTSE100 | 8716.45 | – 9.56 | – 0.11% |
| DAX30 | 23933.23 | – 104.96 | – 0.44% |
Good Morning,
A volatile overseas trading session saw US indices coming off the ebullient highs seen during APAC futures trading. It’s the last day of May, in what has been another positive month for Australian equities.
Lance Roberts, Real Investment Advice
“The old saying is true that ‘April showers bring May flowers’. After a sharp market decline in April, May has been a strong month for stocks despite all the bearish narratives.”
What happened overnight: Extract from NAB Markets Research Today
In a unanimous 3-0 decision, yesterday the US Court of International Trade ruled the president had wrongfully invoked an emergency law (International Emergency Economic Powers Act – IEEPA) to justify most of his “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% tariffs and Fentanyl tariffs).
The Trump administration was given 10 days to comply with the decision mandating a halt to collection of all IEEPA tariffs from trading partners worldwide. The sector-specific tariffs on auto and auto parts plus aluminium and steel (levied under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962) remain in place.
Reaction to the news triggered a rally in US equity futures, and a jump in US Treasury yields alongside broad gains in the USD.
US equities opened higher following the move in US equity futures which were also supported by the solid Nvidia results delivered after the bell yesterday.
The initial positive vibes lifted the S&P500 close to an intraday high of 1% with the NASDAQ jumping 1.5%, but softer US economic data along followed by the Court of appeal news, dampened the mood with the S&P 500 closing the day at 0.40% and the NASDAQ up 0.39%.
Earlier in the session European equites closed in negative territory (Spain the exception) with the Euro Stoxx600 down -0.19%.
US GDP revisions usually don’t elicit a great deal of market reaction and in fact the revision for the Q1 GDP print was a positive one, but the details were a big disappointment.
The GDP contraction in Q1 was slightly revised higher to -0.2% from -0.3% with higher inventories contributing most of the improvement.
But the disappointment came from weaker growth in consumer spending alongside lower profits.
Consumption growth was revised down to 1.2% (slowest since 23Q2) from 1.8% quarter-on-quarter.
We also got the first look Q1-2025 profits revealing a fall of -2.9% quarter-on-quarter.
So ahead of liberation day tariffs in early April, US domestic demand and profits showed sign of weakness with the rump up in tariffs in April set to exacerbate this weakness in the Q2 GDP reading.
US jobless claims were also released last night. Initial jobless claims rose to 240k in the week ending May 24, from 226k, above the consensus, 230k. Continuing claims increased to 1,919k in the week ending May 17, from 1,893k, also above the consensus,1,890k.
We have been here before, but the data could be suggesting the beginning of US labour market weakness. More weekly prints are needed to see if a (weak) trend is evolving, a theme to watch.
The 14K increase in initial claims was relatively broad-based at the state-level, and took them to their highest level since February, bar a one-week spike in late April linked to many teachers in New York making claims during the spring break.
Later in the session a federal court of appeals provided the Trump administration with a temporary reprieve, ruling that tariffs can remain in place until the appeal is heard.
Of course , the Court of appeals could still rule against the tariffs, but is probably worth emphasising that the President has other avenues to impose tariffs, so our view here is that the court case is just another layer of uncertainty/complication, but it does not derail Trump’s tariff agenda.
The ongoing shift in US trade policy is creating a cloud of uncertainty and now the legal battles are making the outlook even cloudier, the only thing that looks more certain is more uncertainty which is set to lead to a further pull back in investment decision and hiring.
The rise in UST yields during our APAC session, more than reversed overnight, leaving the 10 Year US yield at 4.42%, down -11bps from the Sydney close (or 5bp from the prior NY close).
Core global yields also closed lower with near-parallel shifts in yield curves.
Some press coverage was also given to a meeting between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, where Trump was said to have pressed the case that high rates were making the US at an economic disadvantage. The Fed said, “Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy.”.
Bloomberg reported that Japanese PM Ishiba and US President Trump had a 25-minute phone call to discuss tariffs and deepened their understanding. A trade deal looks likely to be agreed before the end of June.
US Indices: year to date performance:
-S&P500: +0.5%
-Nasdaq: -0.7%
-DJIA: -0.8%
-S&P 400: -3.5%
-Russell 2000: -7.0%
It was all a dream: Extract from Chris Weston, Pepperstone
The first thought that came to mind when dissecting the rapidly evolving news flow around the tariff saga was that confusion in markets and in the business community must have reached a new extreme. It was only yesterday that market players became Harvard legal scholars and experts in IEEPA, section. 232, 301, 338 and the process of a statutory challenge in the district courts, Court of Appeals or Supreme Court.
Yet, in less than 24 hours the Court of Appeals ruled a stay order for the court to consider the motion for 5 June (plaintiff) and 9 June (the Trump Admin) this will see the US continue to collect tariff revenues temporarily at least – as per the prior IEEPA levels, with US effective tariff rate remaining, for now, at 11%.
Try making business investment plans to these further twists in the script. In the meantime, the markets give the news of a stay a wide berth and the lack of any major reaction in the US equity futures, the USD, or gold is starkly telling.
To be fair, the reaction in markets to the initial news that the Court of International Trade had ruled Trump’s use of IEEPA as unjustified was never that prolific anyhow. NAS100 futures may have rallied 2%, but we can part attribute that to Nvidia’s strong numbers and the positive flow into the broader semi space. The reaction on a cross-asset basis was orderly and well managed.
Traders take a deep breath and consider their job of trying to make money from the aggregate flows that dictate the price action, objectively managing volatility and the risk in a position. While that is never an easy task, it seems relatively straightforward compared to those who have spent time on ChatGPT or liaising with their in-house US public policy experts analysing Trump’s legal options and the process of what comes next.
Once they have that down pat, considering how the saga may affect ongoing trade negotiations, where the US effective tariff rate may settle (and by when), the future US deficit and the impact on inflation and term premium.
And then attempting to suggest where investors need to be positioned in their portfolios
One can simply take a quick look at the intraday chart of S&P500 futures and see that we’re back to exactly the levels we were 24 hours ago; it’s almost as if nothing ever happened, and it was all a bad dream
Certainly, there’s not a great feel to the price action and the technical set-up (on the daily) looks ominously like a double top and as such, a break of the session lows of 5884 and some will be looking down at the 200-day MA (5810) and the neckline (of the double top) at 5756. I question if the market is set up to trade a range of 6000 to 5850 into month-end and into the early throws of next week.
Gold traded down to US$3245 in Asia, where the buyers took control and dominated through both EU and US trade, resulting in a strong low-high trend day, with price rising US$85 off the lows to US$3331. The rejection of Wednesday’s lows on the daily candle has caught my interest. We now know where the risk lies for long positions and with price breaking the recent trend of lower highs, a push through US$3330 could see price test the 23 May swing high of US$3365 as the first target.
Again, we close off a turbulent but positive month of May (the ASX200 is up 3.5% month-to-date) and the rebalancing flows that may play out from portfolio managers but also from the MSCI index rebalancing.
Corporate news in Australia
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) is eyeing the potential break up of Healthscope.
-Elders ((ELD)) has received a Statement of Issues from the ACCC for the proposed acquisition of Delta Agribusiness, with the regulator seeking more information.
-Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) is expected to encounter stiffer ACCC scrutiny over the RAC acquisition in WA than the Qld deal due to the former’s large market share.
-Glencore has moved in excess of $30bn in foreign assets into an Australian subsidiary as part of a large restructuring to facilitate a future mega-merger with a rival commodities company.
On the calendar today:
-NZ May ANZ consumer confidence
-AU April Building Approvals
-AU April private sector credit
-AU April retail sales
-JP April unemployment
-EZ April M3
-US April PCE
-US April personal income/spend
-US April Tarde Bal
-US May U of Mich sentiment
-FINDI LIMITED ((FND)) earnings report
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3341.89 | + 29.69 | 0.90% |
| Silver (oz) | 33.44 | + 0.35 | 1.06% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.67 | – 0.00 | – 0.07% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.11 | – 0.01 | – 0.81% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.85 | + 0.06 | 0.94% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.21 | – 0.01 | – 0.52% |
| West Texas Crude | 60.92 | – 0.96 | – 1.55% |
| Brent Crude | 63.35 | – 0.98 | – 1.52% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 99.27 | – 0.12 | – 0.12% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 29 May 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (May) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8409.80 | 0.58% | 3.49% | 7.22% | 3.07% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| ADT | Adriatic Metals | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
| GMD | Genesis Minerals | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| Neutral | Citi | ||
| GMG | Goodman Group | Outperform | Macquarie |
| Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett | ||
| PFP | Propel Funeral Partners | Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| RRL | Regis Resources | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| S32 | South32 | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | Citi |
| SOL | WH Soul Pattinson | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| TLS | Telstra Group | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Ord Minnett | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS | ||
| WEB | Web Travel | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELD - ELDERS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FND - FINDI LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RHC - RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED