Daily Market Reports | Jun 13 2025
This story features PERPETUAL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPT
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Stock markets were mixed overnight with European markets under pressure amid negative tariff sentment, while US indices tracked higher. The S&P500 is now up 2% since the start of June.
After a flat ASX200 performance yesterday, the futures are running with the US lead, pointing to a positive start for Friday trading.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8605.00 | + 46.00 | 0.54% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8565.10 | – 27.00 | – 0.31% |
| S&P500 | 6045.26 | + 23.02 | 0.38% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19662.48 | + 46.61 | 0.24% |
| DJIA | 42967.62 | + 101.85 | 0.24% |
| S&P500 VIX | 18.02 | + 0.76 | 4.40% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.36 | – 0.06 | – 1.25% |
| USD Index | 97.86 | – 0.77 | – 0.78% |
| FTSE100 | 8884.92 | + 20.57 | 0.23% |
| DAX30 | 23771.45 | – 177.45 | – 0.74% |
Good Morning and Happy Friday to all,
With the S&P500 bumping up against record highs, markets appear sanguine and possibly complacent in the face of potentionally rising Middle East conflict.
President Trump’s statement today regarding a possible Israel attack on Iran is hardly comforting for those looking for reasons to be concerned.
“Look, there’s a chance of massive conflict,” Trump said. “We have a lot of American people in this area, and I said, we’ve got to tell them to get out because something could happen soon, and I don’t want to be the one that didn’t give any warning and missiles are flying.”
What happened overnight: Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management
Wall Street ended Thursday on a high note, but the path to the close was anything but smooth. The S&P500 tacked on 0.4% as Oracle’s AI optimism lit a spark under risk appetite, helping stocks shrug off Trump’s tariff threats, Powell-bashing, and fresh tremors from the Middle East. The Dow and Nasdaq followed with modest gains, but under the hood, it was a messy tape, equal parts hope, hedging, and headline fatigue.
While equities rallied into the close, the dollar continued to wear the scarlet letter of “Sell America.” It sold off another -0.7%, breaking below levels seen during April’s tariff tantrum and plumbing lows not visited since March 2022. As the 90-day pause on Trump’s so-called “reciprocal tariffs” ticks toward expiry, traders are treating the greenback like a proxy for proximity to the cliff’s edge: the closer we get, the more nervous the footing.
Treasuries, meanwhile, were back in beast mode. A US$22 billion 30-year auction went off without a hitch, helping pull 10-year yields below 4.4%. Add in softer jobless claims and a cooling PPI print, and you’ve got a cocktail that screams “Fed blink incoming”. The market’s starting to price in rate cuts with a growing sense of conviction, if not now, then soon.
Trump did his best to keep the White House three-ring circus spinning. In ring one, he reassured markets he won’t fire Powell, then promptly called him a “numbskull” for not slashing rates by -200bps. That US$600 billion in annual savings claim? Pure voodoo math.
Ring two saw Commerce Secretary Lutnick touting progress on trade, name-dropping Japan, South Korea, and even the EU. But his admission that negotiations with Brussels are “more than thorny” was pure trader-speak for “we’re nowhere close”.
In ring three, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at flexibility on the looming tariff deadline, adding just enough ambiguity to keep hope alive while buying more time.
Still, the market has seen this show before. Bark, delay, then deal. Stocks are playing along, dipping then ripping on cue. But the dollar isn’t buying it, it’s hedging the White House chaos. With volatility brewing and July’s tariff clock ticking down, FX traders aren’t trading the bark; they’re bracing for what comes after the clowns exit the stage.
And while markets stayed glued to the tickers, the geopolitical fog thickened. The Pentagon launched a review of the AUKUS submarine pact with the UK and Australia, another chess piece in the Taiwan Strait standoff. It’s a subtle but unmistakable message: if you want US military hardware, be prepared to stand shoulder to shoulder if things go sideways. It’s also a marginal negative for the dollar.
Crude oil eased slightly, but don’t let that lull you, war risk remains the most underpriced asset in the entire market. Brent could easily push through US$90 if the Middle East tinderbox lights up, especially with the Strait of Hormuz in the blast radius. Israel’s threats to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure are back on the radar, and traders are waking up to just how thin the geopolitical ice really is. Inflation may be cooling, but a two-front oil shock –Ukraine and Iran– could quickly turn that trend on its head.
Under the surface, FX options are flashing amber. One-week and one-month risk reversals hint at choppiness ahead, not full-blown panic like April, but not smooth sailing. The dollar has dropped by over -8% year-to-date, and portfolio flows continue to shift offshore quietly.
Meanwhile, the S&P flirts with all-time highs like nothing’s wrong, but you can feel it. This rally is walking a tightrope. Without a Fed cut or an earnings upside surprise, the bar is high, and the margin for error is razor-thin.
Finally, a sombre headline to start the day: a 787 8 jet crashed in Ahmedabad, India, killing all but one of the 242 on board. Boeing shares tumbled -4.8%, with GE Aerospace, maker of the jet’s engines off -2.3%. It’s another body blow to Boeing, which has struggled to regain market trust after a string of safety and production setbacks.
The market’s dancing in the storm, stocks grinding higher, bonds flashing rate-cut bait, and the dollar limping on tariff fatigue.
But beneath the surface, geopolitical risk is simmering, the trade clock is ticking, and this entire rally rests on a hope-and-liquidity foundation. Stay nimble. Trade the tape, not the talk.
NAB Market Today Research extract
Following the downside surprise in CPI earlier in the week, US producer prices were also weaker than expected in May and revealed little immediate impact from the tariffs. Core PPI increased by 0.1%, below the 0.3% consensus, which saw the annual rate tick down to 3.0% from 3.1%.
Producer prices provide about one-third of the underlying data for the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator, such that analysts running the slide rule over their forecast for the latter look to be coalescing around a 0.1% monthly print.
Weekly US jobless claims at 248k against 242k expected brings the 4-week average up to 240k from 235k, alongside which continuing claims (lagged by a week) shot up to 1,956k from 1,902k the prior week, the highest since November 2021 and highlighting that workers losing their jobs are finding it increasingly difficult to find new ones.
A rise in the unemployment rate in the June non-farm payrolls data, for which the rounding barrier is pretty low after last week’s May numbers, currently looks a good bet.
Latest tariff news, and which temporary hurt AUD and NZD yesterday morning, President Trump told reporters Wednesday at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, where he was attending a performance “We’re going to be sending letters out in about a week and a half, two weeks, to countries, telling them what the deal is. At a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it.”
Later, Trump said that “I love China”, “I respect Xie a lot”, that a China deal is “going to happen fairly spoon” but then said that he “might go up with that auto tariffs” referencing his earlier decision to up the steel and aluminium tariff rate from 25% to 50%. Doubtless, EU and Japanese officials will have something to say on this to their US counterparts at the G7 Summit in Canada, commencing on Sunday and running through Tuesday.
In markets, the combination of the PPI, initial claims and 30-year bond auction results the latter clearing 1.5bps below pre-auction yield levels produced a bull flattening of the Treasury yield curve with 2s coming into the New York close -4bps, 10s down 6bps and the 30-year just over -7bps lower. Yields are also lower to only a lightly less extent across most European benchmarks.
US equities, having rallied at the open presumably on heighted Fed rate cut hopes following the data, proceeded to meander through the New York session before popping higher into the close to finish on the highs with the S&P500 up 0.38% and Nasdaq rising 0.24%. IT and Utilities, both with 1%-plus gains, led the rise in the S&P.
In FX the USD has lost ground against all G10 currencies for a -0.79% DXY fall over the last 24 hours and taking it through the 21 April prior year-to-date low and now to its weakest since March 2022. It is -11% down on its mid-January high.
AUD/USD finishing in New York at 0.6532, for its fifth consecutive close above 0.65.
Oil has flatlined today after a volatile week on heightened Middle East tensions and ahead of the G7 Summit where Europe is reported to be pressing for a lowering of the Russian oil price cap to US$45. USD weakness has helped gold lift by another US$30, or just under 1%, to US$3,386.
Corporate news in Australia
-Oaktree and Bain Capital are touted as the final suitors for Perpetual’s ((PPT)) wealth management business.
-Brookfield has commenced the sell-down process of Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI)) for $428m, a discount of -7.9%.
-Cochlear ((COH)) has lowered its earnings outlook while announcing a new smart implant system.
-GemLife’s IPO at $1.56bn is near finishing with $25m-$30m shares on offer.
On the calendar today:
-NZ May Manufacturing PMI
-JP April Industrial Prod’n
-EZ April Industrial Production
-EZ April Trade Balance
-US Uni of Michigan Sentiment
-DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) ex-div 2.40c
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3407.42 | + 34.25 | 1.02% |
| Silver (oz) | 36.35 | + 0.15 | 0.41% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.84 | + 0.04 | 0.90% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.14 | + 0.00 | 0.15% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.78 | – 0.04 | – 0.60% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.20 | – 0.00 | – 0.37% |
| West Texas Crude | 68.79 | + 0.75 | 1.10% |
| Brent Crude | 70.17 | + 0.50 | 0.72% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 95.46 | – 0.32 | – 0.33% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 12 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8565.10 | 0.58% | 1.55% | 9.20% | 4.98% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| BPT | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS | ||
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight | Morgan Stanley |
| JLG | Johns Lyng | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Morgans |
| MTS | Metcash | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| QAN | Qantas Airways | Upgrade to Hold from Trim | Morgans |
| RDX | Redox | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| SEK | Seek | Re-initiation of coverage with Buy | Citi |
| WGN | Wagners Holding Co | Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy | Morgans |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: COH - COCHLEAR LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DBI - DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DNL - DYNO NOBEL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPT - PERPETUAL LIMITED