In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 20-06-25

This story features ACCENT GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AX1

The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden noted Accent Group’s trading update was disappointing, and it will be a wait-and-watch for the operating environment to improve as the benefits of interest rate cuts flow through.

The company’s like-for-like sales fell -1% y/y in the first 23 weeks of 2H25 vs the consensus of 1.9% y/y for 2H25. Gross profit margin fell -80bps vs consensus for around 100bps improvement in 2H25 due to soft demand and higher promotional activity.

The broker lowered FY25 EBIT by -19% and FY26-27 by -26%.

Target price cut to $1.55 from $2.13. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
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0
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1	ACCENT GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Overweight	Jarden

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change
ASX	ASX	$68.72	Jarden	68.25	62.55	9.11%
AX1	Accent Group	$1.29	Jarden	1.55	2.06	-24.76%
			Jarden	2.13	2.06	3.40%
AZJ	Aurizon Holdings	$3.05	Jarden	3.15	3.20	-1.56%
BRG	Breville Group	$28.59	Petra Capital	28.60	28.50	0.35%
COH	Cochlear	$288.43	Jarden	270.28	264.71	2.10%
CUP	Count	$1.01	Canaccord Genuity	1.01	1.00	1.00%
LGL	Lynch Group	$1.75	Jarden	2.00	1.90	5.26%
STN	Saturn Metals	$0.34	Petra Capital	1.24	1.17	5.98%
STO	Santos	$7.74	Jarden	8.34	6.70	24.48%
THL	Tourism Holdings Rentals	$2.02	Wilsons	2.18	1.25	74.40%
TLC	Lottery Corp	$5.23	Jarden	5.35	5.15	3.88%
TTM	Titan Minerals	$0.37	Canaccord Genuity	1.20	1.18	1.69%
WIA	WIA Gold	$0.24	Petra Capital	0.32	0.30	6.67%
Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change

More Highlights

AV1    ADVERITAS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.10 

Taylor Collison rates ((AV1)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1)

Back on June 6, Taylor Collison initiated coverage on Adveritas, highlighting its TrafficGuard (SaaS) platform as a proactive solution to digital advertising fraud (invalid traffic and advertising). The analyst began with a Speculative Buy rating and 17c target.

The platform provides real-time protection across Google Ads, mobile, affiliate, and social channels, helping marketers eliminate waste and optimise acquisition efficiency, explains the analyst.

The broker sees a strong commercial inflection point, with multi-year SaaS contracts, rising annual contract value, and agency distribution underpinning 61% year-on-year annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth.

Management recently secured its first $1m annual contract value (ACV) deal and first agency contract, validating its value proposition, according to the broker.

It’s also thought the deal helps open scalable enterprise access across sectors like ecommerce and legal.

This report was published on June 6, 2025.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.065
If AV1 meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals Overnight Price: $2.26 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1)

Brazilian Rare Earths published the follow-up test work on the Monte Alto deposits, which confirmed valuable by-products could be obtained when extracting uranium.

Based on the results, Canaccord Genuity now sees a case for the company to pursue production of separated RE oxides, given their high grades.

This also means the scoping study will be pushed back to the end of 2025 or early 2026 to allow time to incorporate the new results.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.

This report was published on June 12, 2025.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $2.74
If BRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 121% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LGL    LYNCH GROUP HOLDING LIMITED

Agriculture Overnight Price: $1.75 

Jarden rates ((LGL)) as Overweight (2)

Lynch Group provided a positive trading update, pointing to a slow recovery in consumer demand in China and the potential to gain market share in Australia. Revenue for FY25 was tracking at 7% y/y growth vs 6% previously expected.

The company’s FY25 EBITDA guidance of $42-43m is 1% above Jarden’s at the midpoint. Additionally, the company flagged scope for margin improvement in China.

The broker lifted the FY25 EBITDA forecast by 1.6% to $42.7m. This included a rise in China EBITDA and a cut to Australia from lost sales during Cyclone Alfred.

Overweight. Target rises to $2.00 from $1.90.

This report was published on June 12, 2025.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.25
If LGL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.34 cents and EPS of 24.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.05.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

THL    TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $2.13 

Wilsons rates ((THL)) as Market Weight (3)

BGH Capital, together with the Trouchet family, has proposed an all-cash offer for Tourism Holdings Rentals at NZ$2.30 per share. This level is a 67% premium to the 10-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) but below the stock’s pre-2024 range, notes Wilsons.

The proposal reflects the company’s intrinsic value, suggests the broker, but management may determine the offer undervalues long-term potential, especially given recent weakness in RV sales.

The board has established a subcommittee to assess the non-binding proposal while the executive linked to the offer has stepped aside.

No updates have been made to financial forecasts, and the broker assumes no control premium in its valuation.

Wilsons raises its target price to $2.18 from $1.25 and retains a Market Weight rating.

This report was published on June 17, 2025.

Target price is $2.18 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.05
If THL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting downside of -18.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.01 cents and EPS of 13.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.66 cents and EPS of 16.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WIA    WIA GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.24 

Petra Capital rates ((WIA)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital highlights WIA Gold’s recent assay results from 36 RC drillholes and nine diamond holes at the Kokoseb project were strong and included several “impressive” high-grade intercepts.

A resource update is due this month and the analyst reiterated expectation for a rise to 2.5-3.0Moz from the current 2.1Moz.

The broker notes the stock is trading at an EV/Resource of $158/oz, which is a 53% premium to the ASX-listed peer average of $103/oz.

After the expected resource upgrade, the broker expects this would come down to EV/Resource range of $134-111/oz.

Buy. Target rises to 32c from 30c.

This report was published on June 13, 2025.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.08
If WIA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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