TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED (THL)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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07/07/2025

3

Hold

$2.33

20.73%

Management at Tourism Holdings Rentals has guided to FY25 profit at the lower end of NZ$27.0–34.4m, falling short of the consensus forecast.

This guidance is somewhat overshadowed by the proposed takeover offer by BGH Capital and the Trouchet shareholders at NZ$2.30 cash per share, suggest the analysts.

Lower guidance reflects ongoing weakness in RV sales and margins, especially in 2H25, though net debt was slightly better than Morgans' forecast.

Outside the US, FY26 rental outlook was described as strong by management, with forward bookings in A&NZ up by circa 25% year-on-year.

Morgans lowers FY25-27 profit estimates by -39.1%, -28.5%, and -26.9%, respectively, but expects earnings recovery from 2H26 as economic conditions improve.

The broker's target is $2.33. Hold.

FORECAST
Morgans forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.57 cents and EPS of 11.32 cents.
Morgans forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.21 cents and EPS of 18.08 cents.

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30/04/2025

2

Downgrade to Overweight from Buy

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Tourism Holdings Rentals provided a trading update indicating to Jarden a further deterioration in vehicle sales and a slowdown in forward bookings in the US.

Management believes underlying profit for FY25 will be "significantly below" the current consensus forecast.

The broker notes a material decline in US tourism bookings, although rental demand outside the US remains positive, supporting a more stable outlook into FY26.

While net debt remains manageable under extended facilities, Jarden highlights a higher net debt to earnings, well above pre-covid levels, raising concerns over balance sheet pressure if trading conditions worsen further.

Jarden downgrades earnings forecasts by -32%-40% across FY25-27, reflecting reduced vehicle sales, lower rental revenue per asset, and a smaller fleet size. The target falls to NZ$3.00 from NZ$4.21 and the rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

Jarden notes the company's dominant A&NZ market position and resilience in rental yields, but also recognises uncertainty in North America due to tariff risks.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.48 cents and EPS of 14.06 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.39 cents and EPS of 16.17 cents.